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Crossing Thin Ice

Dave Ingram and Max Rudolph

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A discussion of Risk and Risk Management from the perspective of an Insurance company risk manager. Insurers provide products that help everyone to manage their risks. Here you will hear Dave Ingram and Max Rudolph, actuaries from the global consultancy Actuarial Risk Management talk about the sorts of things that keep those insurance company risk managers up at night. Or at least they should.
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show series
 
When rates recently spiked it surprised many with direct and indirect implications. The market value of bonds decreased, and the price of replacement parts for autos increased. There are three ways that insurers can be affected by higher rates. Looking at past events help to prepare for similar tail events in the future. By Max Rudolph.…
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New asset classes like junk bonds and subprime mortgages initially promised high returns without too much risk. Many investors were surprised to find that the risk premium was insufficient to provide for actual losses when they came. Modelers need to adjust for incomplete investment cycles that include only the positive part (e.g., high spreads) bu…
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Has any of your ERM program has been written down? Or is it at risk of being lost when a key player leaves the insurer? The Risk Management Framework document provides the RiskMaster Cheat Codes for understanding the overall ERM system and for specific topics like stress testing and risk reporting to allow a new risk team to start from a solid base…
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Climate change and population growth have stressed fresh water sources, leaving agriculture and coastal residents with opposing issues. While aquifers and rivers struggle, extreme weather and sea level rise provide an overabundance of water. Insurers increasingly are dealing with these extreme weather events that highlight the presence of too much …
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Radical changes in our Physical, Political, Economic and Social systems have been and will continue to buffet humanity. Every so often the combined result is a major change of regime in which new patterns for each of these systems develops and persists for some time creating a new normal. We make the case that this is coming in our world. By Max Ru…
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No one is arguing anymore that the planet is not getting hotter, but what are the limits to temperature rise for humans survival? The ramifications for those who live in poverty in tropical zones is that they will need to move because of the heat. The alternatives are unacceptable. The world needs a plan to deal with massive climate migration. By M…
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Stakeholder perception about the appropriate level of risk and the corresponding capital level varies. Some insurers focus on optimizing income and disbursements, while others find their goals aligned by holding redundant capital. Here we discuss several broad choices for the level of capital and the pros and cons of each based upon common business…
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Historically, scenarios have focused on one assumption at a time but that is not realistic in today’s quickly evolving world. Risk interactions are very important considerations and impact scenario assumptions dynamically. Three narrative scenarios that interact between financial and non-financial risks are discussed. By Max Rudolph.…
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Prior to 2019, Pandemic was the most studied emerging risk. And now that one has happened, it is time to study our reactions to COVID. In this podcast, we look at the reactions that people typically have to near death experiences and find that they are similar to the reactions that companies are having to COVID. Several very different reactions hav…
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Scenario based planning is good for forming company strategy and it can also be good for planning risk management. There are a number of ways that the future might play out for risk management and the likelihood of each of the six possibilities mentioned here has probably changed significantly because of our experiences over the past two years. Whi…
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A volcano erupts somewhere, on average, every week. Eruptions large enough to impact the global environment happen much less frequently, but they have happened. The “Year without a Summer” in 1815 affected crops and immigration, and similar events will happen again. These Super Volcanoes tend to have numerous knock-on effects. By Max Rudolph…
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Stress tests come in a wide variety of levels of adversity. This podcast suggests that we all should focus on just three: normal volatility, realistic disasters and worst case scenarios. Aligning the appropriate stress test to the audience is very important when managing risk for an insurer. Management, Boards and Regulators will each find somethin…
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Emerging risks play a key role in risk analysis. One such emerging risk, Solar Storms, is much more than just pretty northern lights. An impactful solar storm happened as recently as 1859. Then, some problems with telegraph wires were reported, just imagine how much more we depend upon electronics now than we did in 1859. That is exactly what we do…
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A deep dive into the risk selected as the Most Dangerous of 2023. We compare recent inflation spikes against past events, look at the drivers of the current bout of inflation, the impact on the insurance industry along with the most common responses. In addition, we also invert the question and consider what would cause future inflation to be very …
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A major loss often causes management to question past decisions. They might even reverse some of them, but this may be an overreaction. The Chief Risk Officer improves the discussion by bringing a systematic review of the risk related decisions that preceded the loss. In many cases potential problems can be fixed without taking drastic and dramatic…
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We have generally used a continuation of the current environment as our base assumption. But now, with the encouragement of the NY DFS, that is being treated as worse than “Moderately Adverse” scenario. Insurers need to develop a robust set of stress scenarios to test reserve adequacy that include continuation of current conditions and a variety of…
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The current real life scenario combines a pandemic, weather events, supply chain issues, inflation and a regional war all at the same time. Multi risk scenarios can provide major insights about a firm’s resilience that do not necessarily happen with single risk scenarios or even with stochastic models. You may not agree with all of them. They are m…
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