57: Forecasting the next downturn, with Justin Onuekwusi and Emiel van den Heiligenberg

LGIM Talks

Question: Are people at parties talking to you about stocks?

If the answer is ‘yes’ then (1) you could be going to the wrong sorts of parties or, more likely, (2) this could be a qualitative indicator that the economy is in ‘bubble’ territory.

This episode looks at the ways investors can use quantitative and qualitative indicators to try and forecast the next economic recession. After a valiant attempt to explain the economic cycle in just one sentence, Emiel van den Heiligenberg, Head of Asset Allocation, discusses why the triggers of the next downturn will be different and why cycle dynamics means that resilient portfolio construction is more important than ever.

Also joining the podcast is resident Yogi Berra expert and Head of Retail Multi-Asset Funds, Justin Onuekwusi, on how he integrates these indicators and behavioural economics into his portfolio strategy and how the market is ‘like déjà vu all over again’.

To find out more about his eponymous ‘Heiligenberg Index’, read Emiel’s latest blog here: https://macromatters.lgim.com/categories/strategy/i-have-a-fascination-for-market-bubbles/?cid=lgimtalks

· Emiel van den Heiligenberg, Head of Asset Allocation

· Justin Onuekwusi, Head of Retail Multi-Asset Funds

· Eliza Grimond, Content Manager

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