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If you can bet on it, you can bet we’ll talk about it on The Prediction Trade! Whether it’s sports, politics, financial markets, weather, the economy or pop culture, you’re only a few clicks away from placing legal wagers on all sorts of events and outcomes. The Prediction Trade lives at the intersection of probability, prediction and profit. We take a stats- and facts-based approach to wagering and trading in the prediction markets. Each episode features pros from the prediction trade: gamb ...
 
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Want to be a wiser weather wagerer? TPT enlists Rick DiMaio, an expert meteorologist and meteorology professor, to walk through the weather markets on the Kalshi prediction market platform. Tools he shares: https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ https://www.weather.gov/ https://www.accuweather.com/ https://foreflight.com/ The Prediction Trade is brought…
 
The Prediction Trade goes back to Canada with Toronto-based public affairs consultant, political commentator, writer and speaker Tasha Kheiriddin. After successfully forecasting that Canada would hold a national election in 2021, Tasha shares her calls for the number of Liberal and Conservative seats in Parliament, as well as who she thinks will co…
 
There’s a new prediction game in town: Kalshi, the first federally regulated events exchange. Kalshi is now taking trades on whether it will rain in NYC, when Kanye West’s next album will drop, how many people will get vaccinated this week, and all sorts of other outcomes. Prediction market traders, investors and gamblers alike have been waiting fo…
 
From Tennis Betting Tidbits to The Prediction Trade, Jon Reid reveals how he bets on tennis—and his bets speak for themselves. With more than 1,300 wagers in 2020, he netted nearly 80 units with average odds of +144. But today the Canadian tennis handicapper is on TPT to talk about this year’s French Open, sharing his forecasts for the semifinal an…
 
When there's a first-rate sporting event, you can count on TPT to bring you the most qualified experts to handicap the betting opportunities. But what about those other sporting events? In this episode, TPT calls on Hard Factor’s Wes Shephard to weigh in on the upcoming Mayweather-Paul boxing spectacle, the Fat Boy Summer movement and crypto tradin…
 
A veteran Las Vegas oddsmaker and expert motorsports handicapper takes TPT behind the bookmaking curtain to handicap the upcoming Coca-Cola 600 and the Indy 500. Micah Roberts takes on a range of subjects including Phil Mickelson’s big payoff, Billy Walters’ big bets, how to wager on motorsports, the importance of pole positions and whether the Mon…
 
Two horse-racing veteran analysts handicap the 147th Kentucky Derby. Molly Jo Rosen is first out of the gate with a lesson on how to bet smart on big race days. Noel Michaels takes us around the turn with a look at this year’s strongest contenders. Then, both guests go head-to-head on the home stretch sharing the five horses they will each be betti…
 
“I am 100% certain!” That’s how confident National Post columnist Tasha Kheiriddin is on this episode’s political wager. Kheiriddin dissects the Liberal Party of Canada’s recently revealed budget and discusses the likelihood of a Canadian election taking place in 2021, resulting in a high-conviction even-money betting opportunity. The Prediction Tr…
 
Anthony Scaramucci returns to The Prediction Trade with a shocking prediction on the fate of NY Gov. Andrew Cuomo. Scaramucci shares his 2021 bitcoin price forecast as well as his thoughts on NY Mayor Bill de Blasio, NY Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, NY Attorney General Letitia James and Florida Congressman Matt Gaetz. The Prediction Trade is brought to …
 
Professional gambler Paul Krishnamurty makes his return to the TPT studio, this time to discuss more than just politics. The golf-betting pro gives a master class on betting on the Masters, including the five players who are the best bets to don the coveted green jacket. He also reveals his two favorite longshot bets. Political bettors will get the…
 
Season 2 of The Prediction Trade kicks off with lifelong New Yorker James Altucher. James, an entrepreneur, investor, chess master, comedian, author and host of “The James Altucher Show” podcast, shares his contrarian analysis and best bets in the prediction markets for New York’s gubernatorial and mayoral races, as well as the fate of Gov. Andrew …
 
The Prediction Trade - coming soon!Each episode features pros from the prediction trade: gamblers, traders, investors, data freaks, probability geeks and super-forecasters. We also introduce experts with proprietary forecasting models and insights into the outcomes of prediction market events.Whether you live to bet or bet to live, join us for the …
 
Rutgers University's Harry Crane discusses his new research comparing the accuracy of polling models with the prediction markets following the November election, giving FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver another reason to troll tweet. Also, Trafalgar Group's Robert Cahaly tips off TPT to some potentially market-moving poll results he is about to release…
 
In this special episode, Libertarian Party presidential candidate Jo Jorgensen teaches Libertarian 101. Dr. Jorgensen takes us to school about "shy Libertarian voters," wasted red & blue votes, victimless crimes, Seagrams, meth, Edward Snowden, pre-existing medical conditions, big tech, the Clemson Tigers & cask-strength whiskey. Visit jo20.com and…
 
Republicans, Democrats, partisans & wingnuts ... There's something for everyone in this special recap episode featuring favorite guests, moments and trades from our last 30 episodes. In the second half of the episode, Star Spangled Gamblers' Pratik Chougule shares his post-VP debate analysis, as well as some trade ideas. TRENDS Our No-Fly Debate Zo…
 
Before you place any more political bets, check out pollster Robert Cahaly of Trafalgar Group's explanation of why he beat his polling peers in the past two election cycles, how he nailed the Electoral College outcome in 2016 and why the polls are wrong again in 2020. Cahaly calls the swing states, two key Senate toss-ups and some Luckbox Longshot …
 
Professional gambler Paul Krishnamurty returns to The Political Trade after going four-for-four on his prior trades. Paul shares his Biden-favoring election day hedging strategy, three new high-return trades and a Luckbox Lockbox trade with a big upside! TRENDS U.K. & Betfair Pricing RBG and the Debates 2016 Misdeeds & Midterm Misreads TACTICS: Hig…
 
Super-trader Jason Pipkin returns to The Political Trade after nailing major forecasts ahead of Super Tuesday in his first appearance. This time, he's sharing the essential tips, tricks and skills necessary to trade successfully—and profitably—on election night. TRENDS Jason's contest for political traders TACTICS: Election Night The County Line Fl…
 
Allan Lichtman, a professor of history at The American University, holds "The Keys to the White House" — his proven, proprietary model for forecasting presidential elections that correctly called the 2016 election for Donald Trump, as well as every other presidential outcome since 1984. This TPT episode compares the model's predictive accuracy to p…
 
Former Illinois Governor Rod Blagojevich returns for Part 2 of his TPT appearance. In Part 2, Blago enters the trading pits of PredictIt.org, analyzing the markets and sharing his unique perspectives, opinions and forecasts as a former state governor. A total of eight markets are called in all, including the market for Paul Manafort's clemency, mar…
 
When he took office in 2003, Rod Blagojevich was the first Democrat elected to be Illinois' governor in 30 years. Riding a populist wave, he racked up progressive political victories until he was taken into federal custody on corruption charges in 2008. After serving eight years of his 14-year sentence, Blagojevich had his sentence commuted by Pres…
 
Mark Vargas has more than earned his political insider credentials as the so-called "mystery man" who achieved the impossible: nearly single-handedly brokering Trump's commutation of former Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich's 14-year prison sentence. But that's not all. Vargas also assisted in securing Roger Stone's recent commutation. He tells the ful…
 
David Rothschild rings the TPT bell, and Nate Silver's ears are ringing. Rothschild, a Microsoft Research data scientist and economist, breaks down prediction markets and takes down FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver in a discussion about the relative merits of polling vs. prediction markets. In Part 2, Rothschild enters the trading pits and serves up E…
 
Longtime prediction market trader Travis Lloyd, known to PredictIt traders as "baselevel," brings more than just an impressive (and verified) tale of how he turned a $50 investment into $120,000. He also brings scotch! Travis shares some of his political insights, a trick he uses for achieving upwards of a third of his returns, why he's negative on…
 
Washington Post data analyst and political columnist David Byler talks partisanship and the BLM movement's likely impact on the upcoming presidential election. In the TRADES segment, he enters the PredictIt trading pits with 12 forecasts, including seven state general elections, Mike Pence, the Democratic VP and yet another Luckbox Lockbox trade! S…
 
This year's Fourth of July saw fireworks not only erupting in the sky, but also on social media following a viral tweet by Kanye West. The rapper, singer, songwriter, record producer, composer, entrepreneur, and fashion designer may soon don a new title: presidential candidate. In this breaking news episode of TPT, we go through the biggest stories…
 
Equipped with raw intuition and unique insights, Dylan Ratigan returns in Part 2, ready to tackle the prediction markets of PredictIt. Wasting no time, Dylan walks through a total of 10 markets, sharing the picks he thinks have the highest probability in each. TRADES include: Handicapping Biden's health through November, Senate control, the Elector…
 
Dylan Ratigan has so much to say about what is wrong with politics today, it took two episodes. We begin by asking Dylan to revisit his memorably viral on-air MSNBC rant. Also in Part 1, Dylan riffs on partisanship, redistricting, ranked balloting, running for office, the two-party system and prediction markets' political biases. The Political Trad…
 
Not all headlines are clickbait — at the request of a TPT listener, this episode explains the ins and outs of a political prediction market strategy that results in free money! It's called "Negative Risk." Tricky at first, but TPT super trader Scott "Sazerac" Supak uses the Democratic VP market to illustrate the trading tactic where the house pays …
 
In this special episode, we walk Rachel "the Doc" Bitecofer, the hottest hand in election handicapping, into the political trading pit for her very first time. She earned her cred by nailing the 2018 midterms, and her 2020 election model is the talk of the Beltway. So we put her to work, talking through more than a dozen prediction markets and shar…
 
Against the backdrop of President Trump's Twitter feuds and recent executive order regarding social media censorship, TPT enlists super trader Derek Phillips (the $400,000 man from Episodes 5 and 6) to tackle PredictIt's notorious tweet markets, currently accounting for as much as 80% of his prediction market fortune. Secrets shared—must listen. TR…
 
In this bonus episode, TPT's Jeff Joseph joins Barstool Sports' Hard Factor News team to talk about politics, prediction markets and some unusual laws governing the state of Florida. Many thanks to Hard Factor's Wes, Mark, Will and Pat for letting us share this previously aired Hard Factor segment. Find them on the Barstool Sports Network. The Poli…
 
TPT's Jeff Joseph moderates a prediction market-focused panel consisting of former guests Derek Phillips and Jason Pipkin as well as Pratik Chougule. Jeff asks the panelists about their trading philosophies, tactics and insights into specific markets on the PredictIt platform. This segment originally aired during hour four of American Civics Exchan…
 
JMark — political trader, poker pro and attorney — shares the trading strategy that placed him among PredictIt's top 15 "oracle" traders. Mark uses poker disciplines to illustrate expected value (EV+), reveals an essential trading tool and rings the TPT bell, sharing his best bets in the prediction markets today, including some "locks." Follow JMar…
 
Political trader and analyst Alex "Keendawg" Keeney rings the TPT bell on a big breaking news day. Alex shares his contrarian perspectives on exploiting bias as a prediction market trader, Joe Biden's sexual abuse allegations and a latecomer Libertarian to the presidential race. Follow Alex at starspangledgamblers.com TRENDS Jesse, Justin & White M…
 
Paul Krishnamurty, a professional London-based political gambler and analyst for Betfair, joins TPT to share his perspective on U.S. political wagering, the explosive growth of political wagering in the U.K., and five PredictIt markets picks. Follow Paul's blog at politicalgambler.com. TRENDS U.K. Wagering on U.S. Politics TACTICS Betting to the VP…
 
James Carville, master political strategist, MSNBC analyst and self-proclaimed "man of many vices" joins TPT to share his thoughts on the Biden candidacy and several key PredictIt markets, including a high-payout longshot pick for Biden's VP! Carville dishes on Sanders supporters, "The Squad" and Trump, and reveals the magic number that he uses to …
 
John Phillips, CEO of Aristotle, the engine behind PredictIt, joins TPT to talk about the convergence of politics and prediction markets, and developing an atomic bomb in college. To best understand PredictIt is to know its history. This bonus episode pulls back the curtain—trader demographics, new markets, and a new partnership. John also shares h…
 
Hard Factor's Mark, Wes & Will share their takes on today's news, their worst mistakes and their best bets. TRENDS Dire Straits v Death, Cuomo's nipple rings, errant Burr & more. TACTICS Don't make these prediction market gambling mistakes! TRADES Will's VP pick Wes eyes a Biden layup Mark paints Texas (red v blue) LUCKBOX OF THE WEEK Hint: The tig…
 
EPISODE HIGHLIGHTS: iSavage Explains the "Always sell at 90¢" Rule TRENDS Cuomo, VP Stakes (Warren v. Harris) & Recession Outlook TACTICS So, really...do you always sell at 90¢? TOOLS @pi_twets for market alerts TRADES Wisconsin Bells Netanyahu—Yes or No? Fauci: 35 Years v. 35 Days LUCKBOX OF THE WEEK Hint: Burr—It's Cold in Carolina The Political …
 
HIGHLIGHTS: A revealing bonus episode with Anthony Scaramucci—hedge fund manager, author, political insider and former White House Communications Director for President Trump. Part 1: Pandemic, Politics, Trump & the Media Part 2: The Mooch Reveals His Best Trades TRADES Scaramucci Handicaps Clemency for Stone, the Swing States, Netanyahu, Sessions,…
 
EPISODE HIGHLIGHTS: Derek Phillips reviews seven total trades TRENDS Bernie, Tulsi, Sessions & Stone TACTICS Selling against the news in bracketed markets TRADES Oregon Origami Trump's Recession Minny in Blue Going Back to Ohio LUCKBOX OF THE WEEK Hint: Never Mind the Bullock The Political Trade is brought to you by the award-winning Luckbox magazi…
 
EPISODE HIGHLIGHTS: Derek Phillips Kills It TRENDS The iSavage Rule VP Stakes Takes TACTICS Flipping, Scalping & Grinding TRADES Bernie & Tulsi: Against All Odds Throw Roger Stone a Bone? Jeff Session Delicatessen LUCKBOX OF THE WEEK Hint: A Big Red Peach The Political Trade is brought to you by the award-winning Luckbox magazine, follow the link f…
 
EPISODE HIGHLIGHTS: Neuroscientist Jason Pipkin shares his three best trades TRENDS Is Bernie Beatable? Say it Ain't Joe TACTICS Swing Trading Live Election Returns TRADES Southern Comfort Joe The Eastern Bloc for Bernie Bros Bid No Trump on a COVID Bump LUCKBOX OF THE WEEK Hint: Big Blind Bets The Political Trade is brought to you by the award-win…
 
GUEST Supertrader Scott Supak shares his three favorite trades TRENDS Bloomberg Busts Warren Returns Making Book on a Brokered Convention TACTICS Pump, Dump, Stack & Jack TRADES Nevada, Iowa & Trump Approval LUCKBOX OF THE WEEK Hint: Iowa Escape Artists The Political Trade is brought to you by the award-winning Luckbox magazine. Follow the link for…
 
EPISODE HIGHLIGHTS: Supertrader Scott Supak (@ssupak) shares his three favorite post-NH trades TRENDS You Can Bet Biden's Shorts Curing Klomentum Tammy Two-Cents TACTICS Expected Value (EV) Explained TRADES Peter, Joe & Amy LUCKBOX OF THE WEEK Hint: It's yellow and it's hated The Political Trade is brought to you by the award-winning Luckbox magazi…
 
EPISODE HIGHLIGHTS: Supertrader Scott Supak (@ssupak) shares his winning formula TRENDS Post-Iowa Momentum TACTICS Take the Gimmes TRADES Say No to Joe Warren Has Value What About Buttigieg? LUCKBOX OF THE WEEK Hint: Cheap Tweets The Political Trade is brought to you by the award-winning Luckbox magazine, follow the link for a free 10-issue digital…
 
A brief trailer introducing The Political Trade Podcast. The Political Trade is brought to you by the award-winning Luckbox magazine, follow the link for a free 10-issue digital subscription today: getluckbox.com Join in on the wagering at predictit.org/promo/TPT20 and we'll match the first $20 you invest. Feedback? Questions? Guest ideas? thepolit…
 
Kyle joins the Luckbox Podcast again to talk about the Dota 2 Kiev Minor, with his picks for the favourites and one dark horse to watch at the StarLadder ImbaTV event in Ukraine. Expert analysis on the teams taking part including some interesting roster changes lead in to a discussion on the morals of switching up the team and when it's not OK to j…
 
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