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Best Atief Heermance podcasts we could find (Updated October 2019)
Related podcasts: Government Atief Heermance, Robert de Neufville, Scott Eastman Robert Scott Robert de Neufville Scott Eastman
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NonProphets
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NonProphets is a weekly podcast about forecasting. The hosts became "superforecasters" based on the strength of their performances in the Good Judgment Project forecasting tournament, and they have continued to forecast on a wide array of topics with Good Judgment, Inc. In this podcast, they discuss their forecasting processes, and offer their analysis of questions on public forecasting platforms, such as the Good Judgment Open and Almanis, as well as other topics of interest to them. Most e ...
 
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Episode 78 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss Trump impeachment odds. We talk about why an impeachment might make sense now (01:18); whether we have reached peak whataboutism (04:23); the potential outcomes of an impeachment inquiry; the chance that Trump is impeached by the House (11:44); the role of public o ...…
 
Episode 77 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss a request for listener input on the Pantone Color of the Year (2:59), Iran and Saudi Arabia (8:47), with a detour into Russian/Ukrainian cultural cynicism (18:06), and the Trump whistleblower scandal/contretemps/nothing burger (25:39). They close with a discussion ...…
 
Episode 76 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott talk about what they did over the summer (01:05); why they've been less enthusiastic about following politics lately (06:03); what they think about the Democratic primary debates so far (10:49); whether the Democrats should go low when Republicans go low (18:29); to what e ...…
 
Episode 75 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott interview David Epstein, author of the best-selling books Range and The Sports Gene. We talk to David about what it means to have range and how the 10,000 hour rule falls short (00:38); how to adapt to "wicked" learning environments (03:10); why "omnivorous generalists" ar ...…
 
Episode 74 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss the ethics of providing information, such as forecasts, to clients (00:45), why public information may be preferable to private when it comes to managing the risk of information misuse (13:12), and why it's so much simpler, from a moral perspective, to just paint h ...…
 
Episode 73 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Robert and Scott interview UC Santa Cruz cosmologist and Metaculus co-founder Anthony Aguirre. We talk to Dr. Aguirre about why he founded Metaculus (01:10); forecasting the far future and catastrophic events (14:08); forecasting the development of AI (21:30); calibrating forecasts (29:25); catast ...…
 
Episode 72 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott interview superforecaster and novelist Dan Mayland. Dan is the author of a series of spy novels set in and around Iran and the Greater Caspian region. We talk to Dan about how he got into writing novels (00:39); what will become of the Iran nuclear deal (08:56); how common ...…
 
Episode 71 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss managing the risks associated with emerging technologies (00:28), what's going on in Venezuela (28:05), whether the UK may require aid in the event of a hard Brexit (32:13), as well as the concepts of a "cheese submarine" (35:09) and a "glass cliff" (35:59). They c ...…
 
Episode 70 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott forecast listener questions. We discuss who will win Chicago's mayoral election (01:18); whether it makes sense to buy a hybrid or electric car (11:56); and whether the US will pass its own version of the EU's GDPR data privacy law (19:09). We close out the episode by talk ...…
 
Episode 69 of the NonProphets podcast, Atief, Robert, and Scott talk to Marc Koehler. Marc is the Vice President of Good Judgment Inc., in charge of government relations and co-head of analytics as well as an accomplished superforecaster. He was simultaneously the top forecaster on the internal Intelligence Community Prediction Market, the Good ...…
 
Episode 68 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott look back at their 2018 forecasts and forward to 2019 (2:23); the significance of US Secretary of Defense James Mattis' resignation for the US' relationship with its allies (8:57); iterated tit-for-tat games (18:00); the normalization of authoritarian politics (22:47); the ...…
 
Episode 67 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott perform their annual ritual of predicting the next Pantone color of the year (00:21), and then discuss their predictions for Time’s 2018 Person of the Year (20:07), both of which are now public. Overtaken by events! But, still fun. As always, you can reach us at nonprophet ...…
 
Episode 66 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss what happened in US midterm elections and what will happen next. We talk about why Claire McCaskill lost in Missouri (01:27); the Green New Deal and whether the Democrats should make Nancy Pelosi Speaker of the House again (13:27); voter suppression in the election ...…
 
Episode 65 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss Predictit (0:15); US midterm elections (7:39); why most conspiracy theories are false (23:04); how no one likes to be laughed at (27:46); the Missouri Senate race (33:02); the possibility of post-election violence (35:47); Trump's claim that he can effectively amen ...…
 
Episode 64 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss whether we should care about nukes (1:15), the difficulty of tackling big problems (4:02), The Invention of Peace, pseudo-events, cruelty, and what we care about (10:16), and national identity and immigration (16:05). They then discuss the midterms, including which ...…
 
Episode 63 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss Brett Kavanaugh's nomination to the Supreme Court in light of allegations that he tried to rape a fifteen-year-old girl when he was in high school. We talk about the PredictIt market for how many votes Kavanaugh will get in the Senate by October 31 (00:20); the nat ...…
 
Episode 62 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief and Robert, with Scott away, talk about a PredictIt deal for users, as well as a frankly fantastic contest the podcast is having for our listeners (00:10). We then discuss the upcoming midterms, including data sources that we find probative (9:12), and the median voter theory, Missouri and H ...…
 
Episode 61 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott talk about what they were up to all summer while they weren't podcasting. They discuss the anti-terrorism conference sponsored by Iran that Scott attended (00:58); the politicization of the administrative state (07:01); the use of pretexts in political debates (09:43); how ...…
 
Episode 60 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott catch up on what they've been up to, including Atief following the Supreme Court's upcoming Lucia vs. SEC decision (00:55), Robert attending the Hawaii state Democratic convention (16:34), a discussion of being a new parent in the context of national politics (29:47), incl ...…
 
Episode 59 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott talk to Will Jennings, head of public engagement at the political prediction market PredictIt. Will previously worked in the Obama White House and for the vice presidential campaign of Senator Tim Kaine. We talk with Will about what PredictIt is and how it works (00:45); h ...…
 
Episode 58 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott talk to Byron Reese about his new book, The Fourth Age: Smart Robots, Conscious Computers, and the Future of Humanity. We talk what motivated the book (00:33); what "the Fourth Age" is (02:00); the role of ideas and culture in history (07:35); whether automation will cause ...…
 
Episode 57 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott probe the limits of their new political reality with a thought experiment that they called "Everything's on the Table" (aka "Plausible/Implausible"). After discussing the rules of the game (01:01), they discussed the possibility of an announcement about Korean reunificatio ...…
 
Episode 56 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss "the backfire effect"—the fact that people sometimes seem to hold ideas even more firmly after being confronted with evidence they are wrong. We talk about Andrew Gelman's skepticism of the recent New England Journal of Medicine finding that firearm injuries in the ...…
 
Episode 55 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss their Predictit account, including the class of questions on which they have been losing money (1:04), as well as how they approach gaining probative information out of Trump administration pronouncements (12:00). They then discuss Russia, including propaganda and ...…
 
Episode 54 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott talk about the impact of the Parkland shooting on US politics (01:45); the rapidly shifting Republican orthodoxy (14:32); whether democratic norms are weakening (24:51); Transparency International's 2017 Corruption Index (40:33); whether there will be any material change i ...…
 
Episode 53 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott talk about a 1968 collection of essays speculating what 2018 would be like called Toward the Year 2018. We talk about whether it's really possible to predict the future fifty years out (00:19); the difficulty of forecasting changing norms and tastes (05:12); what the book ...…
 
Episode 52 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief and Robert interview Good Judgment Chief Scientist Kathryn Cochran, who leads Good Judgment's question development team, about the nuts and bolts of forecasting. We talk about how forecasts can improve adaptability (09:41); how we would craft clear, meaningful forecasting questions for a hyp ...…
 
Episode 51 of the NonProphets podcast in which Robert, Atief and Scott discuss: 00:30 Hawaii's Incoming Ballistic Missile Alert – How 38 minutes did not convince Robert to “Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb” 14:20 Problems With a Bloody Nose Strategy in North Korea 15:55 Roman Hagelstein – Superforecaster, uberforecaster, and unassuming good guy ...…
 
Episode 50 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott talk about forecasting on PredictIt (1:08); forecasts that could go either way (4:52); our 2017 forecasts (12:37); political attacks on objectivity (14:51); where Amazon will put its second headquarters (17:10); the US government's UFO program (20:30); the implications of ...…
 
Episode 49 of the NonProphets podcast in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss why Pantone was wrong for 2018 (0:30); No More Roy Moore, why and what it means for the future (6:30); outcomes vs. processes (26:00); what will the ongoing Mueller investigation will yield (30:00); taxes (43:00); PredictIt questions and the pitfalls of over-relianc ...…
 
Episode 48 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss warning sirens in Hawaii (00:00) before discussing celebrity baby names (03:04), the tax bill (05:15), the 2018 Pantone of the year (25:15), and the upcoming Star Wars movie's expected performance (37:46). They close with a discussion of royal baby name forecasts ( ...…
 
Episode 47 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott catch up on recent news (01:06), discuss a Middle East-related Black Swan (12:10), and then dive into a variety of US politics-related PredictIt questions (28:01), including the Senate and tax cuts (28:43), the Senate special election (32:30), and an early look at the 2020 ...…
 
Episode 45 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Robert and Scott interview superforecaster Bruno Jahn about his background in forecasting and about his forthcoming book, Sichere Prognosen in unsicheren Zeiten (Certain Forecasts in Uncertain Times). We talk with Bruno about how he got started with the Good Judgment Project (01:04), how to tell t ...…
 
Episode 45 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott are joined by superforecaster and friend of the pod Welton Chang to talk about the new NBA season. We talk about the LA Clippers' chances of winning as many games as last year (01:46), the Ewing Theory (11:23), what the Golden State Warriors' slow start means (32:25), what ...…
 
Episode 44 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss a research paper on bullshit, including what bullshit is and who is susceptible to it (the paper itself may be found here: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/285206383_On_the_reception_and_detection_of_pseudo-profound_bullshit), practical takeaways (18:03), S ...…
 
Episode 43 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss Catalonian independence (00:45), good information and bad information in US domestic politics (19:00), and the possibility of the US changing its approach to permissible speech in the context of fake news (36:36). They close with a discussion of the 2nd Amendment, ...…
 
Episode 42 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert and Scott interview the University of Cambridge Centre for the Study of Existential Risk's Dr. Shahar Avin. We discuss the prospects for the development of artificial general intelligence (00:54), why general intelligence might be harder to control than narrow intelligence (04:29), h ...…
 
Episode 41 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert and Scott interview Welton Chang, a fellow Superforecaster, former Defense Intelligence Agency analyst, stationed in South Korea and with two deployments to Iraq. He is currently a Ph.D. candidate in the Good Judgment laboratory at the University of Pennsylvania, with Phil Tetlock an ...…
 
Episode 40 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss Bitcoin (4:50), summer forecasts (14:10), hurricanes (21:30), team forecasting (32:15), problems of homogeneity in forecasting (37:00), WEIRD bias (42:50), whether egalitarian groups combat groupthink (45:20), and when political opinions become motivated reasoning ...…
 
Episode 39 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott announce that IARPA's new Hybrid Forecasting Competition is looking for volunteer forecasters (00:19), interrupt their own discussion to explain that some of the podcast audio was lost due to what they believe was an attack by a rogue AI (06:28), discuss to what extent we ...…
 
Episode 38 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss US news stories prior to a brief, upcoming vacation, including what Trump says vs. what Trump actually believes (00:52), our military presence in Afghanistan (7:19), Trump and North Korea (13:15), and the possibility of a senior member of the Trump administration l ...…
 
Episode 37 of the NonProphets podcast in which Robert and Scott interview Colin Teichholtz, a partner and portfolio manager at global investment firm Pine River Capital about how he made money arbitraging used books in college and what makes someone good at identifying value in markets (0:41), whether people who trade with major investment firm ...…
 
Episode 36 of the NonProphets podcast in which Atief, Robert, Scott discuss the PredictIt group forecasts about the possibility of Trump leaving office by the end of 2017 or 2018 (00:19), voter suppression (34:45), the possibility of compelling evidence of collusion (42:06), and Democratic messaging, rhetoric, and the "war on reality" (46:05). ...…
 
Episode 35 of the NonProphets podcast in which Atief, Robert, Scott talk with Elaine Rich. Elaine was with the Good Judgment Project since its first year, is a Superforecaster, and a dispensing pharmacist at Walter Reed National Military Medical Center. She was featured on NPR, promoting the Good Judgment Project. We discuss what drew her to fo ...…
 
Episode 34 of NonProphets, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott talk about Romanian politics and Romanian tax policy (0:48), the recent special election in Georgia's 6th congressional district (15:17), the Republican healthcare bill's chances in the Senate (26:58), whether military action could make President Trump more popular (34:44), whether Na ...…
 
Episode 33 of NonProphets, in which Atief and Scott welcome back Robert, who discusses his vacation (00:12), before the three of them give their thoughts on the Comey hearing (5:00), Hawaiian superstitions (7:59), violence in politics (9:44), and different models for trying to understand and predict the Trump administration (24:15). They close ...…
 
Episode 32 of the NonProphets podcast in which Atief and Scott (Robert’s on vacation) discuss: Have probabilities broken? (1:30). Comey – Who’s the liar? (4:30). Polarization is leading to violence, but there are bright signs of humanity across the political spectrum (10:35). How to reduce the risk of nuclear war by employing the Fisher Protoco ...…
 
Episode 31 of the NonProphets podcast in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss the Special Counsel and forecasting whether recent events will lead to impeachment or resignation of Trump. As always, you may reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com, or nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 5/17/2017)By Atief Heermance, Robert de Neufville, Scott Eastman.
 
Episode 30 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott—recorded the day after it happened—discuss the surprise firing of FBI Director James Comey (1:11), whether Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein will appoint Special Counsel to investigate the Trump campaign's ties to Russia (11:12), why firing the FBI Director is problem ...…
 
Episode 29 of the NonProphets podcast in which Atief, Robert and Scott discuss Happy Summer Bets and Natural Catastrophes (01:30), Living on Lava Plains (14:00), Forecasting Summer Blockbusters (22:00), Top Summer Songs (33:33), The French Election (41:00), Comey?/Forecasting Campaigns (49:30), Affordable Care Act (58:00). As always, you may re ...…
 
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