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There is nothing more fascinating than a fixed income instrument. Nothing. Listen to Jim transport you to a world of convexity, basis points, covenants and debt-to-gdp. For professional investors only. No advice here. No mention of funds or products. Personal thoughts, not that of any employer.
Podcast by Strangeman
And core inflation was the strongest since 1981!
Only 266k jobs created in the US in April, nowhere near the 1 million expected. In today’s podcast we ask why. Also, Scottish independence, and the Bomber Mafia.
It’s back. Loads going on - it’s going to be a fascinating summer for markets.
A longer episode covering the market’s Fed hike expectations, and credit market performance.
It happened in the 1960s, so sorry if I alarmed you.
As predictors of future inflation they turn out to be pretty mediocre.
Can we afford it once rates rise? Also we welcome Turkey’s 4th central bank Governor since 2019.
A bond market history lesson. Chairman G. William Miller takes over at the Federal Reserve.
Well that’s what they are saying.
Come for the U.K. export data, stay for my French accent.
Government bond yields are assumed to have a close relationship with nominal GDP growth. How’s that going?
He spoke, US Treasuries hated it. Yields up again.
How sensitive is the UK’s government debt to rising rates? Also the Fed’s Brainard speaks about last week’s bond market turbulence.
Also a look back at the 1994 bond rout.
Carnage in US Treasury bonds...
Australian government bond yields up 17 bps overnight. But risk assets are not moving...yet. Also: Sir Kier Starmer, the £, and Uber.
Yields are up everywhere. This hasn’t hit risky assets yet - but it might just be a matter of time. Also: the thorny case of Finders vs Keepers.
The U.K. ended 2020 at the bottom of the developed market league tables for growth. But are we comparing like for like?
Also today, Bitcoins, and the bull-case for the US dollar.
Gilts sold off biggly yesterday as we got hawkish commentary out of the Bank of England. Negative rates off the table?
He’s back - probably. Italian BTP yields fell 10 bps yesterday as a result. Also back? The KLF. And inflation?
Also today, the House of Lords QE Inquiry, & the US minimum wage hike.
10 years ago Bill Gross said the U.K. was in severe danger on account of its budget deficits. It didn’t work out like that. Also today I look at my favourite gilt, UKT 8% 2021.
This week we find out more about the Fed’s monetary policy outlook given recent softer jobs data, and the likely timing and size of Biden’s stimulus package. Which will bond markets care about most?
5 reasons why inflation comes back in 2021 from Morgan Stanley. Plus a musical tribute to the new Treasury Secretary.
When Smaug captured the dwarves treasure, he plunged the economy of Middle Earth into depression and deflation. Perhaps leading the rise of the far right (Sauron).
Stimulus, fallen angels, sovereign defaults, and a CDS disaster that will go down in bond market history.
Yields are rising, curves are steepening. A big Biden stimulus is expected. Will we get higher Fed rates and inflation though?
A bumper edition looking at the key issues for bond markets in 2021, and beyond.
Today I look at EMD’s default experience so far this year, and then at the forward projections for default risk. Also I preview Thursday’s ECB meeting. And Weird Left Finance Twitter gets a shout out.
Valery Giscard d’Estaing, the former French President, died this week. He was a key player in France’s economic relationship with the US. He also invented the Giscard Bond - linked to gold.
But a good day for the US economy as the Democrats and Republicans showed that they might be able to work together around fiscal stimulus. USTs sold off heavily. Also today I discuss a new Fed paper on corporate debt overhang.
RIP the GOAT. Also today, RPI reform, Tesla, Copper, and Debt Cancellation.
Lots of new appointments in the world of US economics to talk about today. Also, RPI reform in the U.K., and pressure on the New Zealand central bank.
With Zambia having defaulted on international bonds last week, it’s a good time to interview Greg Smith, emerging market debt analyst, and former World Bank African economist. How was the Covid shock for the region, will we see more defaults, and what’s China’s new role in African debt dynamics?
I’m guessing we all agree that the recent vaccine news makes a strong economic recovery likely in 2021. But how much long lasting damage - or scarring - has already occurred?
In today’s podcast we have a new series from the “Girls” star, we have Fed speak, bitcoins, WFH and a HUGE bond auction.
Ok the podcast is mainly about central bank rate expectations, but I also suggest that puppy inflation is not being captured in the U.K. RPI stats.
3 things about the market for pushbikes that tell us about the global economy.
Corporate America got the result it wanted - no prospect of regulatory pressure given the Dems didn’t win the Senate. Risk assets rally, but the US dollar is weakening. More Fed cuts to come?
A quick morning update on last night’s US elections. US Treasuries rallying hard as fiscal expansion expectations are scaled back.
The EU has issued its own bonds. And the film of Capital in the 21st Century.
Today I look at sovereign CDS markets given the UK’s downgrade last week, and ask whether the IMF really has changed its tune over austerity.
Today I look at the newly minted Nobel Economics prize winners, and their work on auction theory. Also Moody’s and the U.K. credit rating, and EMD fund flows.
Today I look at a weak US CPI print, and an Economist article called “Eternal Zero” about low bond yields.
Today I look at some new IMF research, as well as at a Chinese policy change, and an interview with the ECB’s Lane.
Chances of negative rates have increased in the U.K. after a disappointing growth number for August. It should have been strong given Eat Out To Help Out.
Corporate bonds have rallied massively from the distressed levels we saw in Q2 this year. What are current spread levels telling us about expected defaults?
New Bank of England research says “yes”.
Inflation numbers are coming in for September and they are terribly weak in Europe. The ECB is worried. Might they, like the Fed, change their inflation target?