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Excess Returns

Excess Returns

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Excess Returns is dedicated to making you a better long-term investor and making complex investing topics understandable. Join Jack Forehand, Justin Carbonneau and Matt Zeigler as they sit down with some of the most interesting names in finance to discuss topics like macroeconomics, value investing, factor investing, and more. Subscribe to learn along with us.
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Two Quants and a Financial Planner bridges the worlds of investing and financial planning to help investors achieve their long-term goals. Join Matt Zeigler, Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau as they cover a wide range of investing and financial planning topics that impact all of us and discuss how we can apply them in the real world to achieve the best outcomes in our financial lives.
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The Acquirers Podcast

Tobias Carlisle

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This is a podcast about finding undervalued stocks, deep value investing, hedge funds, shareholder activism, buyouts, and special situations. We uncover the tactics and strategies for finding good investments, managing risk, dealing with bad luck, and maximizing success.
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In this episode of Excess Returns, Graeme Forster of Orbis joins us to discuss two major research papers: Six Courageous Questions for 2026 and Sunrise on Venus. We explore how long-running global trends may be reversing, what that means for U.S. dominance, the future of international and emerging markets, the risks and opportunities created by AI …
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James Grant, legendary founder of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer, joins us for a wide-ranging conversation on cycles, interest rates, inflation, credit, the Federal Reserve, private markets, gold, and the future of investing. Grant brings five decades of historical perspective to today’s market extremes, explaining why this era of ultra-low interes…
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Value: After Hours is a podcast about value investing, Fintwit, and all things finance and investment by investors Tobias Carlisle, and Jake Taylor. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Soldier of Fortune: Warren Buffett, Sun Tzu and the Ancient Art of Risk-Taking⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ (⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Kindle⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠) We are live every Tuesday at 1.30pm E / 10.30am P. See our latest episodes at…
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In this episode, we’re joined again by Jim Paulsen to break down the key themes shaping markets and the economy heading into 2026. Jim explains why policymakers may be fighting the wrong battle, why real sustainable growth has quietly collapsed over the past 20 years, and how shifts in policy, demographics, productivity, inflation, and investor psy…
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In this special episode of Excess Returns, we share the most important investing lessons from more than 50 of our top guests. After asking more than 200 investors, strategists, academics, and market thinkers the same closing question about the one lesson they would teach the average investor, we compiled the most powerful, timeless, and repeatable …
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In this episode of Excess Returns, Matt sits down with Ben Hunt to break down his new Epsilon Theory essay, World War AI. They explore how the US government, markets, and Big Tech are rapidly shifting the AI narrative from productivity and progress toward a national security arms race with massive implications for energy, capital, jobs, inflation, …
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Value: After Hours is a podcast about value investing, Fintwit, and all things finance and investment by investors Tobias Carlisle, and Jake Taylor. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Soldier of Fortune: Warren Buffett, Sun Tzu and the Ancient Art of Risk-Taking⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ (⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Kindle⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠) We are live every Tuesday at 1.30pm E / 10.30am P. See our latest episodes at htt…
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In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Louis-Vincent Gave of Gavekal Research for one of the most wide-ranging and eye-opening conversations we have ever hosted. Louis breaks down how China transformed its economy over the last seven years, why Western observers consistently misunderstand the country’s growth model, and what this means…
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In this episode, we sit down with Sanctuary Wealth Chief Investment Strategist Mary Ann Bartels to break down her new 2026 outlook. We cover her long-term S&P 500 forecast, why she believes we are still early in a secular bull market, how technological innovation is fueling productivity and profitability, the risks she’s watching in 2026, and the c…
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In this episode of Excess Returns, we talk with Carl Kaufman, Co-President and Co-CIO of Osterweis Capital Management, about navigating today’s fixed income landscape. Carl breaks down the major segments of the bond market, explains how credit and interest rate cycles interact, discusses private credit risks, and shares how he builds durable, low-v…
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Value: After Hours is a podcast about value investing, Fintwit, and all things finance and investment by investors Tobias Carlisle, and Jake Taylor. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Soldier of Fortune: Warren Buffett, Sun Tzu and the Ancient Art of Risk-Taking⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ (⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Kindle⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠) We are live every Tuesday at 1.30pm E / 10.30am P. See our latest episodes at https:/…
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Follow Us on Substack: https://excessreturnspod.substack.com/ In this episode, we sit down with Rob Arnott for a wide-ranging discussion on bubbles, valuations, AI spending, market history, index construction, and long-term return expectations. Rob explains how to think about bubbles in real time, why today’s market echoes the late 1990s, and what …
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Follow us on Substack https://excessreturnspod.substack.com In this episode, we sit down with Bob Elliott for a wide-ranging conversation about the late-cycle economic backdrop, the Fed’s dilemma, AI’s real economic impact, the cracks forming beneath the surface of private credit and private markets, and the growth of hedge-fund-style strategies in…
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Value: After Hours is a podcast about value investing, Fintwit, and all things finance and investment by investors Tobias Carlisle, and Jake Taylor. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Soldier of Fortune: Warren Buffett, Sun Tzu and the Ancient Art of Risk-Taking⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ (⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Kindle⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠) We are live every Tuesday at 1.30pm E / 10.30am P. See our latest episodes at https://acq…
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Subscribe on Spotify ⁠https://open.spotify.com/show/5IsVVM27KWP6SUW6KN2ife⁠ Subscribe on Apple Podcasts ⁠https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-100-year-thinkers-long-term-compounding-in-a-short-term-world/id1845466003⁠ Subscribe on YouTube ⁠https://youtube.com/@excessreturns In this episode of The 100 Year Thinkers, Chris Mayer, Robert Hagstrom…
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Follow us on Substack https://excessreturnspod.substack.com Bill Bengen, the creator of the 4% rule, joins us to revisit one of the most important ideas in financial planning and retirement research. In this conversation, he explains the origins of the 4% rule, how his thinking has evolved over 30 years, and why he now believes retirees can safely …
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Follow us on Substack https://excessreturnspod.substack.com In this episode, we kick off our book project, The Most Important Investing Lesson: What the World’s Best Investors Would Teach You, with a deep dive into the ideas of Michael Mauboussin. We explore his most enduring lessons—concepts that have reshaped how we think about investing, decisio…
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In this episode, we kick off our book project, "The Most Important Investing Lesson: What the World’s Best Investors Would Teach You", with a deep dive into the ideas of Michael Mauboussin. We explore his most enduring lessons—concepts that have reshaped how we think about investing, decision making, and life. From base rates to expectations invest…
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Rupert Mitchell of Blind Squirrel Macro joins Matt Zeigler to talk global markets, China’s resurgence, the AI CapEx boom, and where investors can still find value in a concentrated, overvalued U.S. market. Rupert shares insights from his recent trip to China, his evolving macro framework, and how he’s positioning across equities, credit, and real a…
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Value: After Hours is a podcast about value investing, Fintwit, and all things finance and investment by investors Tobias Carlisle, and Jake Taylor. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Soldier of Fortune: Warren Buffett, Sun Tzu and the Ancient Art of Risk-Taking⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ (⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Kindle⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠) We are live every Tuesday at 1.30pm E / 10.30am P. See our latest episodes at https://acquire…
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Follow us on Substack https://excessreturnspod.substack.com In this episode, we are joined by Richard Bernstein, CIO and CEO of Richard Bernstein Advisors. We discuss why this is one of the most speculative market environments he has seen in his 40-year career, why he still believes it may also be one of the best eras for patient long-term investor…
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In this episode, we sit down with Victor Haghani, founder of Elm Wealth and one of the original partners at LTCM, to explore his journey from running complex hedge fund strategies to adopting a simplified, evidence-based investment approach. We discuss how investors should think about expected returns, portfolio construction, dynamic asset allocati…
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Follow us on Substack https://excessreturnspod.substack.com In this episode, Cem Karsan returns to Excess Returns to break down the market through the lens of liquidity, reflexivity, and options-driven market structure. We cover why he believes we are in a bubble but still early in its trajectory, the mechanics behind today’s volatility dynamics, t…
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Value: After Hours is a podcast about value investing, Fintwit, and all things finance and investment by investors Tobias Carlisle, and Jake Taylor. ⁠⁠⁠⁠Soldier of Fortune: Warren Buffett, Sun Tzu and the Ancient Art of Risk-Taking⁠⁠⁠⁠ (⁠⁠⁠⁠Kindle⁠⁠⁠⁠) We are live every Tuesday at 1.30pm E / 10.30am P. See our latest episodes at https://acquirersmu…
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Kai Wu of Sparkline Capital joins Excess Returns to discuss his paper Surviving the AI CapEx Boom. In this episode, Kai breaks down the unprecedented level of investment in AI infrastructure, why today’s AI buildout mirrors past technology booms, and what it all means for investors. He explores the parallels between AI and historic bubbles, the imp…
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In this episode of Excess Returns, we speak with Nancy Davis, founder and CIO of Quadratic Capital Management and the mind behind the innovative fixed income ETFs IVOL and BNDD. Nancy shares her insights on how investors are unknowingly short volatility in their portfolios, the role of options and convexity in fixed income, and how her ETFs seek to…
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In this episode of Excess Returns, Meb Faber joins the show to discuss valuations, diversification, trend following, value investing, and the evolution of markets and investor behavior over the past two decades. Meb shares insights from his upcoming book, lessons from 400 years of market history, and how investors can position themselves for the ne…
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Eric Freedman, Chief Investment Officer at US Bank Wealth, joins Excess Returns to discuss markets, the economy and his investment process. Freedman shares his “control the controllables” investment framework, why he’s maintained a glass-half-full view on the U.S. economy, and how data—not emotion—drives portfolio decisions. The conversation covers…
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In this episode of Excess Returns, we welcome back Rick Ferri, founder of Ferri Investment Solutions and host of the Bogleheads on Investing podcast. Rick shares timeless insights on the evolution of an investor’s education, the pitfalls of complexity, and how to build portfolios that are simple, low-cost, and behaviorally sustainable. The discussi…
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In this episode of Excess Returns, Matt Zeigler talks with macro strategist and author Remi Tetot, known as “The Mad King.” They explore how liquidity, policy, and narratives have reshaped markets over the last decade, why fundamentals have lost their grip, and how investors can adapt to a fractured global cycle. The conversation spans macro themes…
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Value: After Hours is a podcast about value investing, Fintwit, and all things finance and investment by investors Tobias Carlisle, and Jake Taylor. ⁠⁠⁠Soldier of Fortune: Warren Buffett, Sun Tzu and the Ancient Art of Risk-Taking⁠⁠⁠ (⁠⁠⁠Kindle⁠⁠⁠) We are live every Tuesday at 1.30pm E / 10.30am P. See our latest episodes at https://acquirersmultip…
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In this episode of Excess Returns, Larry Swedroe returns to discuss the biggest risks and opportunities facing investors today. From tariffs and immigration to AI and private credit, Larry shares evidence-based insights on how to think about markets without relying on forecasts. He explains why diversification is essential, how investors can “sin a…
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Adam Parker, founder and CEO of Trivariate and Trivector Research, joins Excess Returns to discuss how fundamental, quantitative, and macro perspectives intersect to shape markets today. Parker shares his long-term bullish case for U.S. equities, why traditional valuation signals no longer work, the biggest risks he sees for investors, and how AI, …
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Ben Hunt returns to Excess Returns to break down the hidden risks building inside private credit and the parallels between today’s “alternative asset managers” and the shadow banking system that triggered the 2008 financial crisis. Using the Godfather’s Tessio as a metaphor for betrayal and broken trust, Ben explains how opacity, leverage, and narr…
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In this episode of Excess Returns, Gene Munster and Doug Clinton of Deepwater Asset Management join Justin and Jack to explore the technological, economic, and investing implications of AI. They discuss why they believe we’re still in the early stages of a multi-year bull market driven by AI, how the technology is reshaping jobs and productivity, a…
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Buy Toby's Bookhttps://amzn.to/478SMBfIn this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Tobias Carlisle, founder and portfolio manager at the Acquirers Fund, and author of the new book “Soldier of Fortune: Warren Buffett’s Sun Tzu and the Ancient Art of Risk Taking.” Tobias joins Matt Zeigler and Bogumil Baranowski to explore how timeless strateg…
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Value: After Hours is a podcast about value investing, Fintwit, and all things finance and investment by investors Tobias Carlisle, and Jake Taylor. ⁠⁠Soldier of Fortune: Warren Buffett, Sun Tzu and the Ancient Art of Risk-Taking⁠⁠ (⁠⁠Kindle⁠⁠) We are live every Tuesday at 1.30pm E / 10.30am P. See our latest episodes at https://acquirersmultiple.c…
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In this episode of Excess Returns, Jerry Parker joins us for a deep dive into the philosophy and practice of trend following. As one of the original Turtle Traders, Jerry shares lessons from Richard Dennis and Bill Eckhardt, explores how trend following has evolved over the decades, and offers timeless wisdom on markets, psychology, and risk manage…
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Subscribe on Spotify https://open.spotify.com/show/5IsVVM27KWP6SUW6KN2ife Subscribe on Apple Podcasts https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-100-year-thinkers-long-term-compounding-in-a-short-term-world/id1845466003 Subscribe on YouTube https://youtube.com/@excessreturns
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Warren Pies joins Excess Returns to discuss why he believes we’ve entered a “Debasement Regime,” what that means for investors, and how it differs from the post-GFC deflationary era. He explains the psychology behind this shift, how it’s changing market behavior, and what it means for asset allocation, gold, bonds, small caps, and the Federal Reser…
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Andy Constan returns to Excess Returns to break down today’s macro environment using his Four-Pillar Framework — growth, inflation, risk premia, and flows. Drawing on lessons from his time at Bridgewater and Brevan Howard, Andy explains how he blends systematic and discretionary approaches to form a clearer picture of markets. He discusses the AI-d…
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Value: After Hours is a podcast about value investing, Fintwit, and all things finance and investment by investors Tobias Carlisle, and Jake Taylor. ⁠Soldier of Fortune: Warren Buffett, Sun Tzu and the Ancient Art of Risk-Taking⁠ (⁠Kindle⁠) We are live every Tuesday at 1.30pm E / 10.30am P. See our latest episodes at https://acquirersmultiple.com/p…
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In this episode of Excess Returns, macro strategist Julian Brigden of MI2 Partners joins the show to break down today’s volatile market landscape. Brigden discusses why he believes we’re in one of the most fertile environments for macro investors in decades, the forces driving dollar weakness, inflation, and capital rotation, and how investors can …
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Katie Stockton, founder and managing partner at Fairlead Strategies, joins us for her quarterly technical outlook on markets, sectors, and asset classes. In this episode, Katie breaks down what her indicators are showing for equities, discusses the implications of new DeMark signals on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, and explores opportunities across secto…
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In this episode of Excess Returns, Matt Zeigler sits down with investor and author Bogumil Baranowski to discuss one of investing’s most important mindset shifts: moving beyond cheap stocks to paying up for quality and exceptional opportunities. Drawing on lessons from Warren Buffett, Ben Graham, and his own journey, Bogumil explains how value inve…
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In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Matt Zenz of Longview Research Partners to explore factor investing, evidence-based strategies, and the challenges and opportunities in today’s markets. Matt shares insights from his engineering background, his time at DFA, and his current work running the Longview Advantage ETF (EBI). We cover th…
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