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The Dividend Cafe is your portal for market perspective that is virtually conflict-free, rooted in deep philosophical commitments about how capital should be managed, and understandable for all sorts of investors. Host David L. Bahnsen is a frequent guest on CNBC, Bloomberg, and Fox Business. He is the author of the books, Crisis of Responsibility: Our Cultural Addiction to Blame and How You Can Cure It (Post Hill Press) and The Case for Dividend Growth: Investing in a Post-Crisis World (Pos ...
 
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I have a view of where the United States is in its economic cycle that I have had for quite some time, and that has substantially informed many of the macro assumptions I bring to portfolio management. I have shared this overarching worldview many times over the years in Dividend Cafe and elsewhere, and I am constantly refining it, analyzing it, an…
 
ASK DAVID“Could you give us some tips on what we can do to fight ESG?” ~ Mark S. It is the subject of much obsession at places like National Review’s Capital Matters, and I am engaged in many efforts to fight for the interests of shareholders when it comes to the activity of corporate managers taking their P’s and Q’s from the radical and incoheren…
 
ASK DAVID“When you talk about a stock on television, but then later end up selling as your viewpoint changes, do you publish or broadcast your new view somewhere?” ~ Tom As for the more practical aspect of your question, no, we really couldn’t possibly be responsible for “running a portfolio on TV” if you know what I mean. Updating what we have add…
 
ASK DAVID“Would you mind giving me your Cribb note version of your expectations on the USD’s devaluation now that Saudi Arabia (and probably others) are willing to trade oil for other currencies than the US dollar? If you expect a significant currency related (not just inflation related) devaluation, do you have an idea of how we can offset that?” …
 
Futures opened last night down -50 and were down -85 into the evening. This morning markets pointed to a down -265 open pre-market. Futures would improve in the next three hours before the opening.The market opened down just -80 points and then went positive before then steadily declining throughout the day.The Dow closed down -261 points (0.77%), …
 
The month of January has launched 2023 in a very different direction than 2022 thus far. I do not mean because markets are up thus far whereas they were down in 2022 (though technically both of those things are true). But beyond the mere directional change in markets (which could reverse at the drop of a hat), the themes and factors influencing mar…
 
Dow: +204.45 (+0.61%)S&P: +1.10%Nasdaq: +1.76%10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.497% (+3 basis points)Top-performing sector: Energy (+3.32%)Bottom-performing sector: Consumer Staples (-0.28%)WTI Crude Oil: $81.04/barrel (+0.89%)Key Economic Point of the Day: Weekly jobless claims again reflected the strength of the labor markets with initial claims coming …
 
Dow: +10 points (+0.03%)S&P: -0.02%Nasdaq: -0.18%10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.45% (-1.8 basis points)Top-performing sector: Financials (+0.74%)Bottom-performing sector: Utilities (-1.36%)WTI Crude Oil: $80.49/barrel (+0.45%) ASK DAVID“This statement in Brian’s response to yesterday’s question caught my eye: “…because inflation is ultimately driven by …
 
Futures opened last night about even give or take 20 points, and stayed that way until early morning when we began moving lower and then notably so pointing to a down -150 point open.We opened down about -170 points but were down north of -250 after the first 20 minutes of trading. Around 1145 EST we had slightly better than expected PMI data relea…
 
Futures opened last night pretty close to flat (down -20 points) and stayed right there into the evening. This morning futures pointed to a dead flat open pre-market when I first woke up.The market opened flat but moved up from there and stayed up with a few zigs and zags along the way (see chart below)The Dow closed up +254 points (+0.76%), with t…
 
FOR ACCESS to CHARTs described in this episode, click here - https://bahnsen.co/3DnVULR I wrote a piece for the Dividend Cafe in May last year about the subject of housing and having re-read it this morning, I wouldn’t change a word. But those more evergreen principles don’t take away the appetite many have for the current state of affairs. Economi…
 
I, Trevor Cummings, am honored to be filling in for David Bahnsen today. I hope you will join me for the video and/or podcast, as I provide you with the daily happenings around markets. Please don’t miss out on the “Ask David” section below, as we’ve fielded this same or similar question quite a few times recently. Without further ado, off we go… D…
 
Dow: -614 points (-1.81%)S&P: -1.56%Nasdaq: -1.24%10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.37% (-16 basis points)Top-performing sector: Communication Services (-0.93%)Bottom-performing sector: Consumer Staples (-2.65%)WTI Crude Oil: $79.25/barrel (-1.16%)Key Economic Points of the Day: The Producer Price Index (PPI) saw outright (and rather significant) DEFLATION…
 
Futures opened last night pretty flat (down a pinch) and dropped to down -50 points or into the evening as the Cowboys were having their way with Tom Brady. This morning futures pointed to a down -50 point open pre-market and that went a bit lower after results from Goldman Sachs.The market opened down close to -200 points and fell further in the n…
 
Last weekend I watched a new documentary series on Netflix called Madoff: The Monster of Wall Street. Some of you know I am a bit of a geek for all things Wall Street history, and I seriously doubt you would believe me if you knew how many documentaries, fictionalized movies and TV shows, not to mention real books, I have taken in over the years co…
 
Dow: +269 points (+0.81%)S&P: +1.28%Nasdaq: +1.76%10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.54% (-7.6 basis points)Top-performing sector: Real Estate (+3.60%)Bottom-performing sector: Consumer Staples (+0.06%)WTI Crude Oil: $77.71/barrel (+3.45%) ASK DAVID“The US government has stated that it will purchase crude oil to replenish the strategic reserve once the pric…
 
Dow: +269 points (+0.81%)S&P: +1.28%Nasdaq: +1.76%10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.54% (-7.6 basis points)Top-performing sector: Real Estate (+3.60%)Bottom-performing sector: Consumer Staples (+0.06%)WTI Crude Oil: $77.71/barrel (+3.45%) ASK DAVID“The US government has stated that it will purchase crude oil to replenish the strategic reserve once the pric…
 
A little early morning volatility but then a small rally on the day in markets. Read below, listen, watch – the choice is yours! MARKET ACTION Dow: +186 points (+0.56%)S&P: 0.70%Nasdaq: 1.01%10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.62% (+10 basis points)Top-performing sector: Communication Svcs (+1.29%) and Consumer Discretionary (+1.26%)Bottom-performing sector:…
 
Futures opened last night up +40 points and were up over +80 points by bedtime. This morning futures pointed to a +100-point open pre-market.The market opened up +150 points and got up over +300 points before falling just over -100 points. A 450-point delta between the high and low levels today …The Dow closed down -113 points (-0.34%) with the S&P…
 
Today's Dividend Cafe Link - https://bahnsen.co/3Z98Le5 I’ve lost count of how many years now we’ve done this, but it is a lot, and it is one of my favorite projects every year. I thoroughly enjoy the research that goes into it, the writing that creates it, and the accountability that comes out of it. I will refrain from the temptation to start wax…
 
A solid day for the energy sector and some key blue chip companies but downside across most market sectors. Dow: -340 points (-1.02%)S&P: -1.16%Nasdaq: -1.47%10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.72% (+1 basis point)Top-performing sector: Energy (+1.99%)Bottom-performing sector: Real Estate (-2.89%)WTI Crude Oil: $73.80/barrel (+1.32%)Key Economic Point of the…
 
The new wing of the TBG offices in Newport is now open. We are excited for you to come see it. I believe it is now 28 out of our 50 people that are based in Newport, soon to be 30 out of 52 (we are hiring two new Tax Services people this month). The new space gives us extra space we needed for our Solutions Department from last year’s growth, more …
 
I began writing this from Dallas, Texas this morning, where yesterday USC suffered a heartbreaking loss in what was one of the most exciting Cotton Bowl games ever. I am back in Newport now, where tomorrow morning we reveal the new large office expansion to our team (same floor, same building). It has been a labor of love, I assure you. We have add…
 
https://bahnsen.co/3uYu6c0 Virtually everything going on in markets right now (or so it would seem) has to do with what central banks are doing (or are projected to do). It certainly is not true in reality – the things happening today that will ultimately determine investment outcomes in years to come will have far less to do with the cost of capit…
 
So the Dow gave back Monday’s gain today and a tad more, but with today’s -764 point day in the Dow, the market finds itself a couple of hundred points off where it was just last Friday. And the bond market rally continued again today as yields fell again. All of this is carefully dissected in today’s podcast and video … Dow: down -764 points (-2.2…
 
Welcome to Fed day Wednesday on DC Today. Following positive sessions on both Monday and Tuesday leading up to today’s Fed announcement, we gave 142 points back on the Dow but remain up on the week in both stocks and bonds. I fully unpack today’s Fed announcement, the market reactions and implications and several takeaways in my Fed-heavy video pod…
 
The CPI report came in well below expectations, and futures were up as much as +830 points pre-market (on top of yesterday’s +520 point rally). The rally basically peaked at the open and then fizzled from there, going negative mid-day, before closing up just a hundred points or so. Dow: +104 points (+0.30%)S&P: +0.73%Nasdaq: +1.01%10-Year Treasury …
 
It’s a crazy time in the ‘bizarro’ world when we have questions that we do about 2023’s economic health, the earnings environment, and financial markets liquidity, and yet one of the biggest stories in financial media for the week centers around a couple of obscure income real estate portfolios. Indeed, one could argue it is truly a ‘bizarro’ world…
 
Dow: Up +184 points (+0.55%)S&P: +0.75%Nasdaq: +1.13%10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.48% (+7.9 basis points)Top-performing sector: Technology (+1.59%)Bottom-performing sector: Communication Services (-0.50%)WTI Crude Oil: $71.81/barrel (-0.28%)Key Economic Point of the Day: Initial jobless claims came in at 230k – right at expectations. Continuing claims…
 
A DEAD FLAT day in the Dow – up/down +0.00% (you do not see that often), and a whole lot I discuss in the DC Today. MARKET ACTION Dow: Up 1 point (LOL) (+0.001%)S&P: -0.19%Nasdaq: -0.51%10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.42% (-9.3 basis points)Top-performing sector: Health Care (+0.85%)Bottom-performing sector: Communication Services (-0.93%)WTI Crude Oil: …
 
Lots to cover here in the DC Today … Listen to the podcast or watch the video, and check out the info below! MARKET ACTION Dow: -351 points (-1.03%)S&P: -1.44%Nasdaq: -2.00%10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.53% (-6.6 basis points) – ferocious bond rally of last month continuesTop-performing sector: Utilities (+0.66%)Bottom-performing sector: Energy (-2.65%…
 
Futures opened last night down -40 points and stayed around there into the evening. This morning they pointed to a down -100 open pre-market and worsened a bit from there.The market opened down -175 points and worsened throughout the day, though it came a hundred points off the low late in the trading dayThe Dow closed down -483 points (-1.4%), wit…
 
The markets rallied dramatically on Wednesday when the chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, gave a speech at the Brookings Institute essentially confirming the likelihood of a Fed “slowing” its plans for interest rate hikes. Other speeches this year have seen markets fall a thousand points. The direction of market impact is less importan…
 
December has launched and I have some things to tell you … MARKET ACTIONDow: Down -195 points (-0.56%)S&P: -0.09%Nasdaq: +0.13%10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.50% (- 19 basis points); down 72bps from the 4.22% high of just five weeks ago!Top-performing sector: Communication Services (+0.29%) & Health Care (+0.24%)Bottom-performing sector: Financials (-0.…
 
A monstrous rally ensued today when Jerome Powell verified Fed plans to slow down on rate hikes. Do I think this makes sense? Well, I will tell you what I think about all of it in today’s podcast and video! MARKET ACTION Dow: +737 points (+2.18%)S&P: +3.09%Nasdaq: +4.41%The S&P 500 ended the month of November up +5.37% and the Dow ended up +5.7%. C…
 
An interesting but not especially noteworthy day in markets today, and we have all the commentary you need right here MARKET ACTION Dow: +3 points (+0.01%)S&P: -0.16%Nasdaq: -0.59%10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.75% (+5 basis points)Top-performing sector: Real Estate (+1.71%); Energy +1.28%Bottom-performing sector: Technology (-0.98%)WTI Crude Oil: $78.6…
 
Market Action Futures opened last night down -50 points or so and were down -160 points into the evening. This morning they were pointing to a down -200 point open pre-market.It is safe to say embedded in market action today is come “catch up” after last week where Wednesday is always a “low participation” day, Thursday saw markets closed for the h…
 
Today we are one day closer to cutting into that turkey, enjoying some homemade gravy, and spending some quality time with those nearest and dearest to us. A great time of the year to be grateful, and I, Trevor Cummings, am personally grateful to be filling in for David Bahnsen today. I wish you all a wonderful Thanksgiving, and I encourage you to …
 
I actually hate the title this week, because the word “stupid” really is pretty mean. I try not to be mean because I think it is wrong to be mean (I can elaborate if needed). However, in this case, when James Carville famously said, “it’s the economy, stupid,” in the context of what voters cared about in the 1992 election, he basically created a ne…
 
Another volatile day with the Dow closing flat after being down nearly -400 points. More to say here: MARKET ACTIONDow: -7 points (-0.02%) – had been down over -300 points at the low and -400 pre-marketS&P: -0.31%Nasdaq: -0.35%10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.76% (+7 basis points)Top-performing sector: Technology (+0.21%) and Energy (+0.12%)Bottom-perform…
 
It was a very choppy (up-down) day in markets, to say the least. The chart itself is testimony to how much the market could not make its mind up today. A few nuggets to chew on here … MARKET ACTION Dow: -39 points (-0.12%)S&P: -0.83%Nasdaq: -1.54%10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.69% (-11 basis points)Top-performing sector: Utilities (+0.87%) – only other …
 
MARKET ACTIONDow: Up +56 points (+0.17%)S&P: +0.87%Nasdaq: 1.45%10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.76% (- 10 basis points)Top-performing sector: Communication Services (+1.78%)Bottom-performing sector: Materials (-0.11%)WTI Crude Oil: $86.86/barrel (+1.15%)Key Economic Point of the Day: The Producer Price Index only rose +0.2% in October, half of the +0.4% …
 
Greetings from Nashville, Tennessee, where I will be necessarily giving you a shorter Dividend Cafe today, but one you may find quite interesting nonetheless. I am sure some of you would prefer we just stay out here in Nashville. But alas, we live in crazy times. And speaking of crazy, I want to talk today through a few charts, quickly, that cover …
 
MARKET ACTION Dow: +334 points (+1.02%)S&P: +0.56%Nasdaq: +0.49%10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.13% (-8.4 basis points)Top-performing sector: Materials (+1.68%)Bottom-performing sector: Consumer Discretionary (-0.30%) – only negative sectorWTI Crude Oil: $88.55/barrel (-3.53%) Key Economic Point of the Day:The October NFIB Small Business Optimism Index f…
 
Market Action Futures opened down nearly -200 points last night but got back nearly to the flat line by bedtime as Japan and Hong Kong markets were rallying. Then this morning, futures pointed to a +170-point open pre-market.The market opened +80 points and went steadily higher throughout the day.The Dow closed up +424 points (+1.31%), with the S&P…
 
I appreciated the very kind words I received about last week’s lengthy Dividend Café, and hope the message coming out of that annual week of meetings was clear and useful for readers. I struggled with where to take Dividend Café this week as last week’s covered so many topics, the Fed’s announcement this week was no real surprise at all, and I desi…
 
MARKET ACTION Dow: -146 points (-0.46%)S&P: -1.06%Nasdaq: -1.73%10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.15% (+9 basis points)Top-performing sector: Energy (+2.04 xxx%)Bottom-performing sector: Technology (-3.00%) and Communication Services -2.83%WTI Crude Oil: $87.95/barrel (-2.29%)Key Economic Point of the Day: 1.485 million continuing claims (up 47k, most sinc…
 
I would have to go back and look at the exact shape but I believe the market action today was quite identical to the last time the Fed announced a known rate hike, where the market bad been down, rallied huge to the upside on the news, sold off substantially, rallied all the way back, then sold off into the close with no new news. It’s all just so,…
 
MARKET ACTION Dow: -80 points (-0.24%)S&P: -0.41%Nasdaq: -0.89%10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.04% (-3 basis points)Top-performing sector: Energy (+0.99%)Bottom-performing sector: Communication Services (-1.81%)WTI Crude Oil: $88.57/barrel (+2.36%)Key Economic Points of the Day: ISM Manufacturing fell to 50.2, just barely in expansion mode, and the weake…
 
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