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The Bid breaks down what’s happening in the markets and explores the forces that are changing investing. Hear thought leaders from and outside of BlackRock discuss the trends shaping society and why they matter. Privacy policy: https://www.blackrock.com/corporate/compliance/privacy-policy This material is for informational purposes and is prepared by BlackRock, is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation t ...
 
Martiak Market Update discusses the top trends shaping the global financial markets and economies. This podcast explores topics ranging from market updates, to the economy and personal finance. Money is knowledge, and I understand life happens and this program will help you navigate your relationship with money, with timely guidance and a unique perspective.
 
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show series
 
Japanese 1H corporate earnings releases have been mixed because of the COVID-19 pandemic, while investment flows among both Japanese companies and investors have been shifting in the wake of the U.S. election. Prime Minister Suga’s administration has noted the need for further economic stimulus and proposed a third supplementary budget to be combin…
 
COVID-19 patient numbers are on the rise, and the third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic has started to put limits on economic activity. The positive surprise of coronavirus vaccines showing success lasted only a few days, and fears about the growing pandemic have offset the positive news. Looking ahead, the Northern Hemisphere is heading into winter …
 
This week sees USD on weaker footing, and Derek Halpenny, Head of Research for Global Markets EMEA, explains why he expects 2021 to see further dollar depreciation. Derek also looks at sentiment shifts which means Emerging Markets have seen inflows of USD 30bn in the three week period since the election; can this positive momentum from recent COVID…
 
OPEC+ is in a spot of bother. The group is set to meet on 30 November and 1 December to determine the next phase of their historic production cuts that helped to carve out a floor under oil prices, at a time when high virus cases continue to weigh on global oil demand. Ehsan Khoman, Head of MENA Research and Strategy, believes that the group will e…
 
John Herrmann reviews three risk factors of interest: (1) a rapid deterioration in statistical momentum over the 4th Quarter in consumer and business spending and in total business inventories, (2) strong mobility indicators and surging COVID-19 new infection cases and (3) a fundamentally divided Senate chamber that may be united – if only for a br…
 
Emerging market currencies are outperforming due to market optimism driven by a favourable U.S. election outcome and positive COVID-19 vaccine trial results. The Turkish Lira, in particular, has seen an increase of almost 10% against USD this week, thanks to a potential policy shift from President Erdoğan. Listen for EM currency outlook from Lee Ha…
 
In this 16-minute podcast recorded before the election, Bob Keebler and Paul Lee discuss the candidates' proposals for income taxation of capital gains and how to plan for possible law changes. This Podcast is sponsored by Leimberg Information Services, Inc. at http://www.leimbergservices.com Please visit our software, books, and PowerPoint Present…
 
Markets have moved swiftly on from the US elections with a focus back towards the COVID-19 vaccine, broader growth and the accompanying oil demand outlook. The announcement on 9 November that a vaccine achieved 90+% efficacy in stage 3 trials – exceeding investor expectations of 40-60% as well as being above the effectiveness of flu vaccines – has …
 
With the 4th quarter likely beginning on such a strong trajectory, in terms of income growth and personal and business spending growth, there is a risk that real GDP only declined near -1.90% YoY in all of 2020 – significantly better than the consensus estimate of -3.30% and the Federal Reserve’s projection of -3.70%! Over the course of 2021, John …
 
In this episode, MUFG Head of Agency Mortgage Strategy and Prepayment Modeling, Glenn Schultz, gives us an overview of the most recent prepayment report and how those numbers compare to our Katana machine learning model projections. He also discusses prepayment expectations on the 30-year 1.5 coupon, as well as the impact of the GDP forecast on del…
 
The Nikkei Average surged on November 9 as investors reacted positively to the new U.S. administration as it began to lay the groundwork for the next four years. Still there are many unknowns about the policy stance of the new U.S. administration, and the risk of the COVID-19 pandemic flaring up again continues to smolder. Coincidently, the Bank of…
 
How are the markets reacting to Joe Biden’s U.S. presidential win and Trump’s efforts to contest the victory? In this episode, Derek Halpenny, Head of Research, Global Markets EMEA and International Securities, outlines the key areas of focus for investors, including positive equity market gains, expectations of diminished tensions globally, contin…
 
The blue wave did not materialise. What appears to be a modest victory for Biden, albeit without a Democrat majority in the Senate jeopardises his ambitious $2 trillion clean energy plan, meant to transform the US energy sector into something greener. Ehsan Khoman, Head of MENA Research and Strategy, examines the repercussions of a potential Biden …
 
MUFG's John Herrmann is expecting a more moderate increase in headline payrolls for the month of October but another large drop in the unemployment rate. Perhaps a "deep dive" into the October employment is in order?! Separately, as the U.S. election concludes, it is pretty clear we didn't get the "Blue Wave" many expected. At the same time, it doe…
 
Japan's major life insurance companies recently released investment plans for the second half of fiscal year 2020. MUFG's Takahiro Sekido notes three themes: (1) a return to JGBs; (2) an interest in alternative investments and spread product; and (3) careful selection of foreign bonds that lack appeal when considering the need for improved asset ef…
 
With a sharp acceleration in the number of COVID-19 cases globally, and a raft of new restrictions for several major European economies, the outlook is darkening for Q4. Lee Hardman, currency analyst at MUFG, notes that despite the doom and gloom, there may be some light at the end of the tunnel. With positive Brexit talks suggesting a trade deal i…
 
Investor sentiment towards emerging markets (EM) has improved thanks to a favourable global liquidity backdrop, supportive technical positioning and rebounding economies. However, EM policymakers are now facing difficult decisions on fiscal policy and monetary tightening as they navigate their recovery plans, with a view to prevent currencies from …
 
The COVID-19 pandemic has reshaped the healthcare sector, accelerating trends like digital health, at-home care and new methods of vaccine development. How have the virus and the upcoming U.S. election changed the way we think about investing in healthcare? On this episode of The Bid, we answer this question with three healthcare experts: Erin Xie,…
 
It’s a busy week in Japanese financial markets! An extraordinary Diet session was convened on October 26 and will last for 41 days through December 15. On October 22, committees comprised of both the ruling and opposition sides confirmed nine bills and one treaty to be addressed during this session. Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga, in his policy spee…
 
The shocking acceleration of new COVID-19 cases in Europe are prompting countries such as Spain and Italy to introduce new measures such as curfews – but what does this mean for the economy? In this episode, Derek Halpenny, Head of Research for Global Markets EMEA, explains why previous hopes for a ‘V’ shaped recovery are now being replaced with fe…
 
Environmental, social and governance (ESG) considerations have been central in investor risk assessment in global oil markets for years. Over time, the focus has shifted between key themes including the environmental impact of oil production, health and safety standards, corporate integrity and climate change. Ehsan Khoman, Head of MENA Research an…
 
MUFG's John Herrmann has revised his tracking estimate for 3Q-2020 real GDP growth to +35.5% q/q SAAR (previously, +39.7%). Although lower, the forecast is still higher than Bloomberg consensus of +32%. If John's forecasts prove accurate, they suggest that the level of real GDP may be fully recovered to its pre-pandemic level by July or August of 2…
 
The improvement in the diffusion index and large manufacturers’ expectations contained in the September Tankan survey was welcome news. That, however, comes at a time when the coronavirus pandemic may be re-accelerating globally, not to mention amid the uncertainty of the U.S. election and additional fiscal stimulus. Recent data shows an evolution …
 
Safe haven currencies – USD, JPY and CHF – have outperformed in recent weeks as markets become more cautious about the global economic outlook, particularly in light of the sharp surge of COVID-19 cases in Europe, and the lack of optimism for agreement on a fiscal stimulus package ahead of the US election. The pound is also one of the better perfor…
 
The 2020 U.S. election is set to be one of the most consequential elections in modern history. With November 3rd just a few weeks away, what are the key issues we should track and how might the result impact markets? On this episode of The Bid, Mike Pyle, BlackRock’s Global Chief Investment Strategist, walks through three different scenarios to pla…
 
Global air traffic is projected to decline by at least half in 2020 with most airlines predicting that business won’t return to pre-pandemic levels until 2023, at the earliest. Ehsan Khoman, Head of MENA Research and Strategy, examines the how jet fuel demand is holding up and what this signals for global oil markets. Listen to Ehsan’s analysis. Di…
 
Brace yourselves. MUFG's John Herrmann just revised down his already low (U3) unemployment rate forecast to plunge to 6.25% by year-end 2020 (currently, 7.9%) and to 4.0% by year-end 2021 (our previous forecast, 4.6%). That only increases the gap between MUFG, the consensus, and "official" estimates like the FOMC and the IMF. Our updated forecasts …
 
With three weeks until Election Day on November 3, millions of Americans are already voting – in person and by mail. Polls show a sustained and recently growing lead by former Vice President Biden, but the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on how votes will be cast and counted remains unclear. A win by President Trump cannot be ruled out. In this epi…
 
Technically Speaking - CBOE founding member Judd Hirschberg shares his updated Q4 targets, alerts and inflection points on key US stocks and indicies. Judd’s research is driven by five decades of proprietary models that prioritize long-term relationships across asset classes. He is highly respected among the Chicago futures trading community, and y…
 
Impact investing means investing in companies that are working to solve the world’s greatest problems. How can investors do well while doing good, and how have companies pivoted today in the face of COVID-19 and racial injustice? On this episode of The Bid and our mini-series, “Sustainability. Our new standard,” Eric Rice, Head of Active Equities I…
 
The prospect of economic growth in the UK is darkening, with figures showing a less than impressive level of growth for August. In this episode, Lee Hardman, currency analyst, outlines the rocky road ahead for the pound. The markets are currently pricing in an optimistic scenario for Brexit negotiations ahead of the EU leaders' summit on Thursday, …
 
With starkly different policies on energy and environmental issues, the outcome of the upcoming US election will have a momentous impact on markets. With less than a month to go, Ehsan Khoman, Head of MENA Research and Strategy, offers insights into why either a Trump or Biden administration will mean those trading oil, both now and post-election, …
 
Total U.S. nonfarm payrolls gained only +661.0K mom in September, weaker than John Herrmann's forecast and the consensus estimate. In contrast, private nonfarm payrolls gained +877.0K mom, stronger than his forecast and the consensus estimate. As John previewed, the Bureau of Labor Statistics did, in fact, under-count total education staffing, espe…
 
MUFG’s Glenn Schultz discusses MUFG’s proprietary machine learning prepayment model and walks listeners through the relevant issues that mortgage investors should be paying attention to while surveying the prepayment landscape. In this episode, MUFG Head of Agency Mortgage Strategy and Prepayment Modeling, Glenn Schultz, breaks down the impact of t…
 
U.S. politics is still front of mind following President Trump’s diagnosis of COVID-19 last week. This development sent shockwaves through the markets, and could have repercussions for the upcoming election. Derek Halpenny, Head of Research for Global Markets EMEA, gives his analysis of the situation and considers whether Biden has an advantage goi…
 
Notwithstanding the reality that Oman faces one of the largest fiscal shortfalls amongst the entire emerging market space this year, there are encouraging signs that the country is over the worst. One of the most closely examined emerging market countries, Ehsan Khoman, Head of MENA Research and Strategy, weighs in on Oman’s outlook as it navigates…
 
MUFG's John Herrmann is expecting yet another better than consensus gain in headline payrolls in the month of September. He's also expecting a larger than expected fall in the unemployment rate...sound familiar?! Undercounting of education workers represent down-side risk to his forecast, although this would likely be caught in subsequent monthly r…
 
Seventy-four percent of Chief Financial Officers expect some portion of their workforce to remain virtual forever. Stay-at-home orders have led to a 60% increase in content consumption on streaming platforms. And there’s been a 35% surge in video game sales over the past few months. These are just a few of the ways the world has changed since the c…
 
Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga’s administration is only weeks old, but it is already clear the new administration will continue Abenomics and push for the structural reforms that were never enacted. The Tokyo markets underwent structural changes during the nearly eight years of Abenomics, and overseas investors have been making more JPY cro…
 
Tomorrow is the first live debate between Donald Trump and Joe Biden and marks five weeks until the U.S. election. History indicates television debates don’t have an integral influence on election results, but Derek Halpenny, Head of Research for Global Markets EMEA, gives his FX forecast for the week as he explains why if there was ever a year to …
 
Libya’s oil industry, all but shut down since January due to the civil conflict, is reopening – in parts. This re-entry of Libyan crude is theoretically a new bearish dynamic for global oil markets. Ehsan Khoman, Head of MENA Research and Strategy, examines the sustainability, magnitude and timeline of the prospect of higher supply from Libya into …
 
Over the past four weeks, the FOMC continues to deliver what appears to be a forceful, seminal shift in their monetary policy framework. The Committee has strengthened its maximum employment mandate, elevating its stature to be a vibrant, durable, broad-based, and inclusive one. 12 years of erroneous predictions has inclined the pragmatic Chair Pow…
 
A mix of cross-currents are threatening to turn the tide for the FX markets. COVID-19 is back in focus in the UK, with the growing likelihood of new lockdowns sending the pound into underperformance. The threat of negative interest rates is also looming, and Derek Halpenny, Head of Global Markets Research for EMEA, gives his forecast for when these…
 
The bar surrounding the peak in oil demand is rising with discussions this week on whether the peak in oil demand has already been reached, with prospects that global oil consumption possibly may never return to pre-pandemic levels. Ehsan Khoman, Head of MENA Research and Strategy, contextualises how increasing energy efficiency, the electrificatio…
 
The FOMC recently concluded its first meeting under the new monetary policy framework announced less than a month ago. As expected, the meeting was a seminal one! Chair Powell and the rest of the Committee sent a powerful message that they will target inflation above 2% for "some time" to achieve its new "average" goal. That's significant, especial…
 
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