Econoday Inc Podcasts

Despite some generally hawkish central bank statements this week, financial markets apparently remain convinced that official interest rates will be falling before year-end. So, who’s right and does the disconnect matter? Terry Sheehan and Jeremy Hawkins discuss.

Despite some generally hawkish central bank statements this week, financial markets apparently remain convinced that official interest rates will be falling before year-end. So, who’s right and does the disconnect matter? Terry Sheehan and Jeremy Hawkins discuss.

Market reaction to this month’s data underscores just how uncertain investors are about the global economic outlook. And this means that asset prices are likely to remain particularly sensitive to the higher frequency data, at least until the picture becomes clearer.

Market reaction to this month’s data underscores just how uncertain investors are about the global economic outlook. And this means that asset prices are likely to remain particularly sensitive to the higher frequency data, at least until the picture becomes clearer.

Friday’s U.S. employment report dominates this week’s economic data calendar but it’s been the disastrous U-turn in UK government fiscal policy and the subsequent enforced deferral of the BoE’s QT plans that’s left many investors really rattled. Terry Sheehan and Jeremy Hawkins discuss what’s going on.…

Friday’s U.S. employment report dominates this week’s economic data calendar but it’s been the disastrous U-turn in UK government fiscal policy and the subsequent enforced deferral of the BoE’s QT plans that’s left many investors really rattled. Terry Sheehan and Jeremy Hawkins discuss what’s going on.…

Supported by aggressive rhetoric, this week’s raft of official interest rate hikes means that many central banks are still firmly in tightening mode. And that’s adding to recession risks and posing increasing problems for those monetary authorities reluctant or unable to follow suit.

Supported by aggressive rhetoric, this week’s raft of official interest rate hikes means that many central banks are still firmly in tightening mode. And that’s adding to recession risks and posing increasing problems for those monetary authorities reluctant or unable to follow suit.

The impact of surging energy prices on monetary policy has been apparent for some while now but as the cost-of-living crisis intensifies, the real economy fallout is increasingly forcing governments to intervene with fiscal help. The team discuss the global picture.

The impact of surging energy prices on monetary policy has been apparent for some while now but as the cost-of-living crisis intensifies, the real economy fallout is increasingly forcing governments to intervene with fiscal help. The team discuss the global picture.

If there was one overriding message from last week’s Jackson Hole symposium it was that central banks have had enough of overshooting inflation. And from current elevated levels, that means further, almost certainly aggressive, monetary tightening that can only increase the likelihood of recession.

If there was one overriding message from last week’s Jackson Hole symposium it was that central banks have had enough of overshooting inflation. And from current elevated levels, that means further, almost certainly aggressive, monetary tightening that can only increase the likelihood of recession.

In recent weeks a number of central banks have modified, or even completely jettisoned, their forward guidance on interest rates. While sensibly allowing monetary policy to be more nimble, the changes also reflect increasing uncertainty about the economic outlook. The team analyse the latest developments.…

In recent weeks a number of central banks have modified, or even completely jettisoned, their forward guidance on interest rates. While sensibly allowing monetary policy to be more nimble, the changes also reflect increasing uncertainty about the economic outlook. The team analyse the latest developments.…

Inflation is still far too high pretty well everywhere and, in some countries, still rising. However, as the real economy data disappoint, recession talk is getting notably louder. And if recession is just around the corner, it may be that the peak to inflation and interest rates is closer than many suppose.…

Inflation is still far too high pretty well everywhere and, in some countries, still rising. However, as the real economy data disappoint, recession talk is getting notably louder. And if recession is just around the corner, it may be that the peak to inflation and interest rates is closer than many suppose.…

To varying degrees, inflation, geopolitical tensions and inevitably Covid continue to dictate investor behaviour in general. However, policy responses around the world have to respect what’s going on locally and national economic conditions differ markedly. The team look at the dislocations in economic cycles and their implications for financial ma…

To varying degrees, inflation, geopolitical tensions and inevitably Covid continue to dictate investor behaviour in general. However, policy responses around the world have to respect what’s going on locally and national economic conditions differ markedly. The team look at the dislocations in economic cycles and their implications for financial ma…

Following a raft of central bank announcements on Wednesday and today, Terry Sheehan and Jeremy Hawkins discuss what the policymakers did and what it all means for financial markets in 2022.

Following a raft of central bank announcements on Wednesday and today, Terry Sheehan and Jeremy Hawkins discuss what the policymakers did and what it all means for financial markets in 2022.

It's a big week for investors with the Fed expected to step up the pace of QE tapering on Wednesday ahead of what should be very different policy announcements from the SNB, BoE, ECB and BoJ (EST) all on 'Super Thursday'. Terry Sheehan and Jeremy Hawkins discuss the key issues facing the decision-makers.…

It's a big week for investors with the Fed expected to step up the pace of QE tapering on Wednesday ahead of what should be very different policy announcements from the SNB, BoE, ECB and BoJ (EST) all on 'Super Thursday'. Terry Sheehan and Jeremy Hawkins discuss the key issues facing the decision-makers.…

Just when it seemed that the outlook for central bank policy was getting a little clearer, the arrival of the Omicron variant has cast a fresh cloud over the speed and extent to which QE and/or interest rates might be adjusted. Mark Pender and Jeremy Hawkins discuss the latest developments.

Just when it seemed that the outlook for central bank policy was getting a little clearer, the arrival of the Omicron variant has cast a fresh cloud over the speed and extent to which QE and/or interest rates might be adjusted. Mark Pender and Jeremy Hawkins discuss the latest developments.

The dollar’s recent gains in part reflect euro weakness with the Eurozone unit now at multi-month lows against a range of currencies. Moreover, in the absence of a change in tone from the ECB, upcoming economic data and events could well reinforce the currency’s slide. Terry Sheehan and Jeremy Hawkins discuss the medium-term outlook.…

The dollar’s recent gains in part reflect euro weakness with the Eurozone unit now at multi-month lows against a range of currencies. Moreover, in the absence of a change in tone from the ECB, upcoming economic data and events could well reinforce the currency’s slide. Terry Sheehan and Jeremy Hawkins discuss the medium-term outlook.…

U.S. inflation continues to climb and with it, so does speculation about early Fed tightening. With yield spreads likely to widen in the currency’s favour, October’s shock CPI report could open the door to a significantly stronger dollar that, in turn, would provide an additional unwelcome lift to prices overseas. Mark Pender and Jeremy Hawkins dis…

U.S. inflation continues to climb and with it, so does speculation about early Fed tightening. With yield spreads likely to widen in the currency’s favour, October’s shock CPI report could open the door to a significantly stronger dollar that, in turn, would provide an additional unwelcome lift to prices overseas. Mark Pender and Jeremy Hawkins dis…

Financial markets have become used to being forewarned by central banks about prospective changes to monetary policy. However, when such decisions are split, clear communication becomes much harder. Terry Sheehan and Jeremy Hawkins discuss last week’s announcements and how the Fed got it right and the BoE got it wrong.…

Financial markets have become used to being forewarned by central banks about prospective changes to monetary policy. However, when such decisions are split, clear communication becomes much harder. Terry Sheehan and Jeremy Hawkins discuss last week’s announcements and how the Fed got it right and the BoE got it wrong.…

With inflation increasingly pulling the monetary policy strings, the Federal Reserve this week is expected to launch its QE tapering plan while the Bank of England becomes the first of the G10 central banks to actually raise its benchmark interest rate. Mark Pender and Jeremy Hawkins discuss the outlook for monetary policy in the context of the lat…

With inflation increasingly pulling the monetary policy strings, the Federal Reserve this week is expected to launch its QE tapering plan while the Bank of England becomes the first of the G10 central banks to actually raise its benchmark interest rate. Mark Pender and Jeremy Hawkins discuss the outlook for monetary policy in the context of the lat…

By and large, central bankers around the world now seem to accept that high inflation will last longer than originally expected. Most still seem to expect a return to more normal rates in 2022 but the recent sharp jump in energy costs has pulled forward many investors’ view of monetary tightening. Against a backdrop of slowing economic growth, this…

By and large, central bankers around the world now seem to accept that high inflation will last longer than originally expected. Most still seem to expect a return to more normal rates in 2022 but the recent sharp jump in energy costs has pulled forward many investors’ view of monetary tightening. Against a backdrop of slowing economic growth, this…

Friday’s U.S. employment report is widely seen as the key that could unlock the door to Fed tapering. However, payrolls will still need to be strong, at least to a degree, or November’s FOMC meeting might yet turn out to be a damp squib. Mark Pender and Jeremy Hawkins look at what’s expected and discuss the other potential market-moving data and ev…

Friday’s U.S. employment report is widely seen as the key that could unlock the door to Fed tapering. However, payrolls will still need to be strong, at least to a degree, or November’s FOMC meeting might yet turn out to be a damp squib. Mark Pender and Jeremy Hawkins look at what’s expected and discuss the other potential market-moving data and ev…

Earlier today the FOMC indicated that it will soon begin the, potentially protracted, process of normalising U.S. monetary policy. By contrast, on Tuesday the Bank of Japan and the People’s Bank of China signaled that they are in no rush to follow suit and both the Swiss National Bank and the Bank of England are also seen holding steady on Thursday…

Earlier today the FOMC indicated that it will soon begin the, potentially protracted, process of normalising U.S. monetary policy. By contrast, on Tuesday the Bank of Japan and the People’s Bank of China signaled that they are in no rush to follow suit and both the Swiss National Bank and the Bank of England are also seen holding steady on Thursday…

Sub-zero readings on many of Econoday’s economic consensus divergence indices (ECDIs) confirm an unexpectedly large hit to global activity rates from the Delta variant. Price pressures may be easing slightly but the combination of slowing growth and above target inflation poses a real problem for policymakers. The team discuss the latest developmen…

Sub-zero readings on many of Econoday’s economic consensus divergence indices (ECDIs) confirm an unexpectedly large hit to global activity rates from the Delta variant. Price pressures may be easing slightly but the combination of slowing growth and above target inflation poses a real problem for policymakers. The team discuss the latest developmen…

An interest rate hike by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand looked nailed on today but Covid developments may now dictate otherwise. In any event, a tightening there would be an outlier. Terry Sheehan and Jeremy Hawkins discuss the latest global economic developments that suggest policy rates elsewhere are still going nowhere in a hurry.…

An interest rate hike by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand looked nailed on today but Covid developments may now dictate otherwise. In any event, a tightening there would be an outlier. Terry Sheehan and Jeremy Hawkins discuss the latest global economic developments that suggest policy rates elsewhere are still going nowhere in a hurry.…

Terry Sheehan and Jeremy Hawkins look ahead to Friday’s U.S. employment report and discuss more general recovery prospects in the context of raw material shortages, the spreading Delta variant and sharply rising consumer prices. Thursday’s BoE MPC meeting and the possibility of an early end to QE as well as future potential changes at the Fed are a…

Terry Sheehan and Jeremy Hawkins look ahead to Friday’s U.S. employment report and discuss more general recovery prospects in the context of raw material shortages, the spreading Delta variant and sharply rising consumer prices. Thursday’s BoE MPC meeting and the possibility of an early end to QE as well as future potential changes at the Fed are a…

The combination of the rapidly spreading Delta variant and some slightly less dovish sounding central banks is giving stock market investors pause for thought. Jeremy Hawkins looks ahead to Thursday’s ECB meeting and considers whether the central bank can bolster confidence in a non-inflationary economic recovery in Europe.…

The combination of the rapidly spreading Delta variant and some slightly less dovish sounding central banks is giving stock market investors pause for thought. Jeremy Hawkins looks ahead to Thursday’s ECB meeting and considers whether the central bank can bolster confidence in a non-inflationary economic recovery in Europe.…

PMIs in Europe as well as similar business surveys in the US have been posting record scores in contrast to subsequent definitive data which have often been no better than mixed. Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender discuss the importance of PMIs to policy makers and forecasters, looking at their sampling structure and methodology for explanations to the…

PMIs in Europe as well as similar business surveys in the US have been posting record scores in contrast to subsequent definitive data which have often been no better than mixed. Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender discuss the importance of PMIs to policy makers and forecasters, looking at their sampling structure and methodology for explanations to the…

Major dislocations between demand and supply continue to put upside pressure on final product prices but most central banks remain convinced that rising inflation will be short-lived. The team discusses the likelihood of future policy tightenings being delivered sooner rather than later.

Major dislocations between demand and supply continue to put upside pressure on final product prices but most central banks remain convinced that rising inflation will be short-lived. The team discusses the likelihood of future policy tightenings being delivered sooner rather than later.