Are Trade Worries Casting a Shadow on a Record-Setting Economic Expansion?


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Six months after last discussing the economic outlook with Ellen Zentner, chief U.S. economist at Morgan Stanley, the ABA Banking Journal Podcast welcomes Zentner for a new economic update. At midyear, ABA's Economic Advisory Committee (chaired by Zentner) is projecting 2018 GDP growth to reach 2.8 percent, 40 basis points above its January projection, and for economic growth to continue into 2020, which would make the current economic expansion the longest in the U.S. postwar period.

Zentner discusses a few headwinds on the horizon, plus a few wild cards, such as trade policy, that could throw a monkey wrench into growth projections. She also discusses the outlook for monetary policy and the gradual rate raises expected from the Fed -- although, she notes, should the wage growth that one expects from such low unemployment numbers finally show up, it could drive inflation higher and spur swifter action by policymakers.

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