Turner’s Take Podcast: USDA Sinks Grains


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Turner's Take Podcast

Play Turner’s Take Podcast Episode 177

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New Podcast!

One March 29th the USDA shocked the corn market as Quarterly Stocks came in 270mm bushels higher than expected. New crop corn acre expectations are set at 92.8mm! Old crop closed 17 cents lower on the day and new crop was down 12. While the markets have recovered some, the damage is done and it has caused us to do a rethink on potential price ranges this year. Listen to Turner’s Take Podcast to find out more!

Macro Markets

It has been reported that the US and China are 90% done on the trade deal negotiations. The 10% will probably be the hardest to hammer out. When this deal is announced we expect a rally in the stock and commodity markets. Tariffs between the US and China has caused significant damage to the global economy. A failure to resolve their differences could cause a global recession. A successful resolution could be the start of a bull market.

South China Morning Post | US, China start “Endgame” Round of Talks in Washington, DC

Corn & Soybean Supply and Demand Tables

Below is our latest Corn and Soybean supply and demand tables. This is assuming NO deal with China. The next additions of Turner’s Take Market Alert and Turner’s Take Ag Marketing will have assumptions that a deal gets DONE! The No Deal tables look bleak. Soybeans are much worse than corn without a trade deal. Soybean stock could easily be over 1 billion. Corn stocks will still be in the 2 billion to 2.4 billion range, which is not a disaster but it does keep front month corn in the mid $3 and gives new crop little reason to test $4.

A US/China deal does not help global stocks, but it does help US ending stocks and basis. Lets hope this gets done sooner rather than later. Trading and marketing advice will be published Thursday and Friday.

About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter

If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!

While the podcast does not have specific actionable trading recommendations, we do publish them in Turner’s Take Market Alert for spec traders and Turner’s Take Ag Marketing for hedgers. Want to know what to look for in the commodity futures markets? Take a listen to Turner’s Take podcast!

Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker
Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com
Turner’s Take Spec: https://www.turnerstake.com
Twitter: @Turners_Take

Contact Craig Turner

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To open an account or request more information, contact us at (800) 800-3840 or info@danielstrading.com and mention Craig Turner.

Risk Disclosure

This material is conveyed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction.

This material has been prepared by a Daniels Trading broker who provides research market commentary and trade recommendations as part of his or her solicitation for accounts and solicitation for trades; however, Daniels Trading does not maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Rule 1.71. Daniels Trading, its principals, brokers and employees may trade in derivatives for their own accounts or for the accounts of others. Due to various factors (such as risk tolerance, margin requirements, trading objectives, short term vs. long term strategies, technical vs. fundamental market analysis, and other factors) such trading may result in the initiation or liquidation of positions that are different from or contrary to the opinions and recommendations contained therein.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results.

You should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources. You should read the "risk disclosure" webpage accessed at www.DanielsTrading.com at the bottom of the homepage. Daniels Trading is not affiliated with nor does it endorse any trading system, newsletter or other similar service. Daniels Trading does not guarantee or verify any performance claims made by such systems or service.

About Craig Turner

Craig Turner is a Senior Broker at Daniels Trading, author of Turner’s Take newsletter, and a Contributing Editor for Grain Analyst. Craig is often quoted in the Wall Street Journal, Reuters, Dow Jones Newswire, Corn & Soybean Digest, and also makes appearances on SiriusXM – Rural Radio Channel 80 providing commentary for the Grain and Livestock markets. Craig has also been featured in FutureSource’s Fast Break series, Futures Magazine Online, and INO.com. Mr. Turner has a Bachelors from the Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI) where he graduated with honors and has worked at the NYSE and Goldman Sachs. While at Goldman, Craig earned his MBA in the NYU Stern executive program. Learn more about Craig Turner.

95 episodes available. A new episode about every 6 days averaging 28 mins duration .