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What is uncertainty? Why is it important to take it into account when designing data visualizations? And how do you actually do so? We explore these and other questions with Jessica Hullman of Northwestern University and Matthew Kay of the University of Michigan. Jessica and Matt have written many publications on the topic that help orient us to the intricate world of uncertainty, probabilities, and their relevance to data visualization.
We hope you enjoy the show!
- National Institute for Standards (NIST): “Measurement Error”
- Useful material to learn about uncertainty visualization:
- Hypothetical Outcome Plots
- Hypothetical Outcome Plots: Experiencing the Uncertain
- Paper: Hypothetical Outcome Plots Outperform Error Bars and Violin Plots for Inferences about Reliability of Variable Ordering
- Paper: Hypothetical Outcome Plots Help Untrained Observers Judge Trends in Ambiguous Data
- Gregor Aisch on: “Why we used jittery gauges in our live election forecast”
- Ensembles – Visualizing storms
- Visual variables used to show probability/confidence
- Static depictions of outcomes (quantile dotplot)
- Paper: When (ish) is My Bus? User-centered Visualizations of Uncertainty in Everyday, Mobile Predictive Systems.
- Paper: Uncertainty Displays Using Quantile Dotplots or CDFs Improve Transit Decision-Making
- Paper: Imagining Replications: Graphical Prediction & Discrete Visualizations Improve Recall & Estimation of Effect Uncertainty
1. Welcome to Data Stories in 2019! (00:00:27)
2. Data Stories is ad-free thanks to the support of our listeners; please consider making a contribution (00:01:03)
3. Update on the 2018 Information Is Beautiful Awards - Congratulations Moritz! (00:01:51)
4. Today's topic: visualizing uncertainty with Jessica Hullman and Matthew Kay (00:03:36)
5. Introducing Jessica Hullman (00:04:26)
6. Introducing Matthew Kay (00:05:40)
7. What do we talk about when we talk about uncertainty visualization? (00:07:25)
8. Why should we even try to visualize uncertainty? (00:11:52)
9. How can we visualize uncertainty? (00:18:04)
10. How Jessica and Matthew have been focusing on outcome-oriented techniques to visualize uncertainty (00:23:58)
11. The infamous New York Times election needle (00:27:02)
12. Additional methods for making uncertainty accessible (00:33:08)
13. How to evaluate techniques to visualize uncertainty? (00:41:58)
14. Practical advice for practitioners (00:48:57)
15. Get in touch with us and support us on Patreon (00:53:37)
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