Georgia Elections, Storming the Capitol, and EU-China Agreement

Demography Unplugged with Neil Howe

In this latest issue of my weekly podcast, we discuss the Georgia elections. Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossof beat Republican incumbents Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue. Both Warnock and Ossof won by over 0.5%, avoiding an automatic recount. Ultimately this is good news for markets. While traditional wisdom says markets want a divided Congress, the recent chaos has led them to hope for a united government.

Pro-Trump protesters storm the Capital Building. Despite the protesters' wishes, the siege did nothing to change the outcome of the joint session of Congress. Joe Biden's win was officerly certified. In the end, this was a major embarrassment for the GOP leadership. There is a mounting prospect of a fatal splintering of GOP support, with Trump triggering a permanent "Bull Moose" split.

Israel's coalition collapses. After failing to pass a budget on Dec. 22, Netanyahu and Gantz's coalition government was dissolved. This will trigger new national elections in late March. All eyes are on Gideon Sa'ar, a popular former cabinet minister, who recently left the Likud party to start the New Hope party. If victorious, Sa'ar is predicted to create a standard right-wing coalition.

EU and China sign the Comprehensive Agreement on Investment. The new agreement allows EU companies to invest in China in a greater capacity and locks in existing market access to Europe. The countries will not fully finalize the deal for another year. The incoming Biden administration has already signaled they are uneasy with the agreement and want to slow down its implementation.

Public opinion increasingly supports raising the minimum wage. In Florida, a $15 minimum wage initiative was recently approved by 61% of the voters, adding to a growing list of successful efforts to raise the minimum wage at state and local levels around the country.
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