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📔 AI Supercycle vs. Dot-Com Bubble: Hype, Risk, and Reality
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A detailed comparative analysis between the current Artificial Intelligence (AI) boom and the Dot-Com Bubble, arguing that while both share market exuberance, they differ fundamentally in financial structure and risk. It posits that the AI mania is led by financially robust technology incumbents, contrasting sharply with the insolvent, pre-revenue startups of the early 2000s. A primary distinction lies in asset depreciation, where rapidly obsolete AI hardware (GPUs) create a "use-it-or-lose-it" economic pressure that didn't exist with durable fiber-optic cable. The report identifies severe risks, including market concentration among the "Magnificent Seven," potential circular financing loops that inflate revenue, and a widening "ROI Gap" where infrastructure cost outpaces enterprise utility. However, the analysis concludes that a severe sectoral adjustment is more probable than a systemic crash, as geopolitical demand from nation-states and genuine scientific breakthroughs in areas like drug discovery provide a floor of real-world value.
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