“GDP per capita in 2050” by Hauke Hillebrandt

EA Forum Podcast (Curated & popular)

Latest Draft Here

Abstract.

Here, I present GDP (per capita) forecasts of major economies until 2050. Since GDP per capita is the best generalized predictor of many important variables, such as welfare, GDP forecasts can give us a more concrete picture of what the world might look like in just 27 years. The key claim here is: even if AI does not cause transformative growth, our business-as-usual near-future is still surprisingly different from today.

Results

In recent history, we've seen unprecedented economic growth and rises in living standards.

Consider this graph:[1]

How will living standards improve as GDP per capita (GDP/cap) rises? Here, I show data that projects GDP/cap until 2050. Forecasting GDP per capita is a crucial undertaking as it strongly correlates with welfare indicators like consumption, leisure, inequality, and mortality. These forecasts make the future more concrete and give us a better sense [...]

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Outline:

(00:39) Results

(02:45) Discussion

(05:40) Values and Culture

(09:01) Growth could be much faster

(11:49) Implications for AI

(16:57) Will growth slow?

(19:56) Methods

(22:05) Persistence of growth

(23:26) Future Research

(29:05) Appendix: Further reading

(29:09) The World in 2050

(30:55) Economics

(30:59) GDP as a proxy for welfare

(31:03) AI

(36:32) Forecasting

(36:35) Fiction

(36:38) Appendix: Causal Model Between Growth, Liberal Democracy, Human Capital, Peace, and X-Risk

(36:59) Economic Growth causes…

(37:47) Democracy causes...

(40:02) Human capital causes…

(40:44) Peace and stability causes...

The original text contained 79 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.

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First published:
May 6th, 2024

Source:
https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ubZjxQocGqeZJJXE9/gdp-per-capita-in-2050

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.