Episode 138 - Ryan whiffs on oil prediction | Japan to Phase Out Gasoline-Powered Cars | Carbon Prices Jump Despite Record Drop in Emissions

Energy Week

Oil rises to touch $52 after Trump signs aid bill
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil/oil-firms-after-trump-signs-aid-bill-demand-concerns-linger-idUSKBN2920FZ?il=0
- Demand in the US isn’t good but oil stay just under $52 with vaccine news.
- But will increased vaccination actually lead to increased economic activity?
- Market is forward looking but just HOW forward looking is it?
- There could be a sell off when the market reaches the point where demand is back where it is.
- Russia sees demand at 7-8mbpd below pre-pandemic levels but expects growth of only 5-6 mbpd.
Japan to Phase Out Gasoline-Powered Cars, Bucking Toyota Chief
https://www.wsj.com/articles/japan-to-phase-out-gasoline-powered-cars-bucking-toyota-chief-11608887640
- also planning to increase coal powered plants so EVs in Japan will be running off of coal.
- Japanese grid can’t handle the increase in power demand
Toyota’s Chief Says Electric Vehicles Are Overhyped
https://www.wsj.com/articles/toyotas-chief-says-electric-vehicles-are-overhyped-11608196665
Asia’s oil sector in 2021: China drives recovery, strengthens status as refining center
https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/blogs/oil/122420-asia-oil-sector-2021-china-recovery-refining-transport-cars
- predicts oil demand back at 99.53 mbpd in 2021
- China and India will lead the demand growth but India won’t become the next China
Carbon Prices Jump Despite Record Drop in Emissions
https://www.wsj.com/articles/carbon-prices-jump-despite-record-drop-in-emissions-11608814801?page=1
- Carbon credits are like gold. Credits tied to carbon emissions are having a better year than gold.
- Pricing in of increased ambition
- Morgan Stanley forecasts that EU carbon credit prices could rise from 44 Euros to 76 Euros
Biden camp adds pressure on EU to hit brakes on China deal
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/12/23/business/economy-business/biden-eu-china-investment-trade/
- If EU doesn’t back China they have no where to turn to
- Biden promoted multilateralism but can he bring that to bear on China?
How tough will Joe Biden be on the US shale industry?
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/dec/27/joe-biden-us-shale-industry-fracking-ban
U.S. shale oil just had its worst year and the pain could bleed into 2021
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-shale-outlook-analysis/analysis-u-s-shale-oil-just-had-its-worst-year-and-the-pain-could-bleed-into-2021-idUSKBN28W17P
- Growth growth growth was the model for so long that the demise of growth is seen as the death of the industry but that is not necessarily the case.
- Oil productions as going to decrease anyway, 2020 just send up the process the most painful way possible.
- Revamping, reshaping of shale oil industry underway and still underway.
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