Episode 156 - Blackouts threaten entire U.S. West | Dirty solar panels? | Dr. Dean Foreman with the API

Energy Week

Check out Ellen’s new column:
Green Energy Solutions Start at Factory Gates
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-05-17/green-energy-factories-can-solve-emissions-by-generating-own-power
Blackouts Threaten Entire U.S. West This Summer as Heat Awaits
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-west-facing-white-knuckle-111527363.html
- the issue is that coal and gas powered plants are closing and not being replaced, not the rapidly changing climate. Demand is outpacing supply and wildfires make it even more difficult.
- Sweden also had less spare capacity because they are closing nuclear plants. Curbing electricity exports.
Solar panels are key to Biden's energy plan. But the global supply chain may rely on forced labor from China
https://www.cnn.com/2021/05/14/energy/china-solar-panels-uyghur-forced-labor-dst-intl-hnk/index.html
- Report “In Broad Daylight: Uyghur Forced Labor and Global Solar Supply Chains
- components for solar energy “may be created with dirty coal and forced labor”
APIEnergy Monthly Statistical Report
- demand is almost back but not nearly
- 19.6 million bpd for April, up 2.5% from March
- crude oil production: wavered between 10.5 million bpd and 11 million bpd despite structural downturn in drilling.
- despite high prices, drilling is historically long
- ramifications for EIA’s outlook. This week’s EIA weekly petroleum status report has 1 million bpd downgrade in natural gas liquids. But this data has been there since February and they are just beginning to reflect on it. More supply pressures in the data than has been shown. Retroactive changes.
- If the expectation is for record oil demand growth for next 2 years, EIA expects US to supply 30% of the supply to meet that. But drilling activity isn’t picking up right now to match that.
- US economic growth plus lack of oil production growth means we are a net importer.
- Refinery throughput was 15.5 mbpd in April, increase of 6.6% from March. Inventories in good shape going into Colonial Pipeline issue last week. But its not back from where it was. EIA data showed 2.5 million bpd drop in exports before Colonial Pipeline. Refiners are gearing up but we have to watch May carefully to see where we are heading for the summer.
- Jet fuel: jet fuel delivery is up 7.7% from March, but 31.2% below April 2019. We are adding a lot of domestic flights back, but not so many international flights.
- Can the sudden pick up in jet fuel demand be met by supply chain?
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