Episode 75 - Barry | Oil Recovery in Venezuela? | Chinese Economic Data | Dean Foreman (API)


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Hurricane Barry - https://www.forbes.com/sites/ellenrwald/2019/07/12/heres-how-hurricane-barry-could-impact-american-oil-and-gas/ Lingering impacts in the EIA data as over 1 million bpd were shut in as a result of the hu Venezuela Sanctions Spotlight https://www.argusmedia.com/hubs/venezuela? Sanctions on Venezuela different from ones on Iran, no secondary sanctions but pressure from US not to import Venezuelan oil Venezuela pays Russia in oil and that oil ends up all over the place China June crude oil throughput rises to record on new plants https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-economy-output-crude/china-june-crude-oil-throughput-rises-to-record-on-new-plants-idUSKCN1UA04Q China posts its lowest quarterly growth in 27 years as the trade war drags on https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/15/china-economy-beijing-posts-q2-gdp-amid-trade-war-with-us.html Oil prices nudge up on Chinese economic data https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/15/oil-markets-china-economic-data-in-focus.html China says its economic growth has slowed to 6.2% from 6.4% - China won’t let it fall below %6 so does that mean government spending is coming? Interview with Dr. Dean Foreman Chief economist from API to discuss the Monthly Statistical Report Record US oil production sustained despite less drilling - how long will be see record production WITH less drilling. 12.2 million bpd production growing toward 13 million bpd. Pipeline infrastructure is key along with DUCs DUCs can increase production for more than 6 months without another well being drilled. But productivity is also increasing. Technology is an important factor now. Targeting drilling and the amount that technology has added to learning. Flaring - as productivity is up, so is flaring. Majority of flaring in Permian, but also a lot in Bakker. 5 billion cubic feet of capacity for natural gas to come online. What about LNG exports? Record amounts now flowing to Europe. Natural gas pricing is changing! EUropean natural gas prices have been cut in half! ($8 to $4). Key is to have a business model that gives you the ability to monetize the growth in the US natural gas market. Hurricane/Tropical Storm Barry - Impacts 1 million barrels per day of oil production shut in from Gulf of Mexico and 1.2 billion cubic feet of natural gas production - but the market hasn’t been impacted by this We have a great cushion that the US oil and gas industry provides - so news of this hasn’t even really impacted the prices. Jet fuel - Max plane still out of commission, but airplanes have replaced it with older planes in the fleet. Bigger question for airlines then for jet fuel consumption. Jet fuel consumption has been one of the brightest spots for demand. Distillate economic indicator - still showing slowing. Freight trucking sector is technically in a recession now. China - If a deal with China gets done we will a rally in the financial markets. Resumption of global trade flows, though this has been sporadic. Baltic Dry SHipping index went up 20% in June! And its up more in July. This is the time of year when goods get shipped out of CHina to get to where they need to be for the Holiday Season. Effort to beat another round of tariffs on China. $75 billion in tariff revenues coming into government from China. US government will get used to that. China has also depreciated its currency. 3/4 of all toys in the United States are imported from China. Venezuela - going to get worse before it gets better. Teasers for next month - Weather issues and end of summer driving season. https://www.forbes.com/sites/ellenrwald/2019/07/11/what-will-happen-to-crude-oil-if-the-dollar-falls/#2dddb44a1744

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