ROI Podcast | Episode 21 | A Recession is Still Likely…But Here’s Why We Could Be Wrong | May 20, 2024

First Trust ROI Podcast

Brian Wesbury joins the ROI Podcast for a wide ranging discussion about the state of the US economy, why government spending suppresses growth, and what factors could ultimately prevent an economic recession.

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Chapters

1. Introduction (00:00:00)

2. Why is there so much uncertainty in economic forecasts today? (00:01:10)

3. A recession is still likely (00:03:32)

4. Does the Fed know if/when they’re going to lower (or raise) interest rates? (00:04:04)

5. Why didn’t the artificially low interest rates of the 2010s cause a surge of inflation? (00:07:15)

6. Does increased government spending cancel out the Fed’s efforts to fight inflation? (00:10:05)

7. Is the government spending more this year because it’s an election year? (00:12:54)

8. One incentive for increasing foreign aid is to boost economic growth. (00:15:35)

9. Why isn’t the US in a recession yet? (00:16:53)

10. Half of US GDP growth came from government spending. (00:18:20)

11. Innovation, Entrepreneurism, and the American way (00:20:05)

12. Why could we be wrong about a recession? (00:23:01)

13. Why has innovation and entrepreneurism flourished more in the US than in other parts of the world? (00:24:45)

14. How well is the US doing at fostering innovation today? (00:27:05)

15. One limitation of artificial intelligence (00:29:20)

16. Optimism and the swinging pendulum (00:30:48)

17. Brian’s favorite Milton Friedman books, and the Stoics (00:33:58)