Is the Flattening Yield Curve Signaling a Recession?

Lazard Insights

The yield curve has inverted prior to each of the last nine recessions. So some investors are concerned that the current yield curve flattening may be followed by an inversion, which could be a harbinger of recession. We see several reasons why this time may be different.

Featured Speaker

Eulogio (Joe) Ramos Managing Director, Head of US Fixed Income Lazard Asset Management LLC (New York)

Joe Ramos is a Managing Director and Head of US Fixed Income. He is also Portfolio Manager/Analyst on the US Fixed Income team. He began working in the investment industry in 1978. Prior to joining Lazard in 2006, Joe was the Chief Investment Officer of Ambac Financial Group, Inc., where he was responsible for the oversight and management of Ambac's balance sheet investment strategies, including the Excess Liquidity, Core Capital, Plus, and levered IA portfolios. Previously, Joe was a member at E.H. Capital Group, LLC, a Senior Vice President and Portfolio Manager at Lazard Asset Management, a First Vice President and Senior Portfolio Manager at Lehman Management Co., and a Senior Analyst in the Lehman Brothers Kuhn Loeb Fixed Income Research Department. He has a BS from New York University. Joe Ramos is a member of the CFA Institute, the NYSSA and the Economic Club of New York.