Ep. 41: Welton Chang Interview—From the DIA to Superforecasting

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Manage episode 243386978 series 1260429
By Atief Heermance, Robert de Neufville, Scott Eastman, Atief Heermance, Robert de Neufville, and Scott Eastman. Discovered by Player FM and our community — copyright is owned by the publisher, not Player FM, and audio is streamed directly from their servers. Hit the Subscribe button to track updates in Player FM, or paste the feed URL into other podcast apps.

Episode 41 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert and Scott interview Welton Chang, a fellow Superforecaster, former Defense Intelligence Agency analyst, stationed in South Korea and with two deployments to Iraq. He is currently a Ph.D. candidate in the Good Judgment laboratory at the University of Pennsylvania, with Phil Tetlock and Barbara Mellers as advisors. Military intelligence – Korea, Iraq (4:00). Confronting being wrong – the nature of judgment and cognition (7:15). Vizzini's Princess Bride conundrum (12:15) ( https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9s0UURBihH8). AI – algorithms and models – should we trust them, and the garbage in garbage out problem (12:50). Spaghetti chart of Afghanistan: perhaps an accurate representation (18:45)? Limits of modern warfare – restrictions (22:30). Rationality – Trump, Kim, Rex, nukes (33:00)? What is a good way to train forecasters? Welton’s work helping develop training material for the Good Judgment Project (50:40). Improving group dynamics for better decisions (57:00). Bayes' theorem and practice (1:20:00). We close with Welton's cats @percyandportia, Instagram celebrities (1:21:20). As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.com, or nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 9/20/2017)

162 episodes