Ep. 52: Kathryn Cochran on Designing Good Forecasting Questions


Manage episode 243386967 series 1260429
By Atief Heermance, Robert de Neufville, Scott Eastman, Atief Heermance, Robert de Neufville, and Scott Eastman. Discovered by Player FM and our community — copyright is owned by the publisher, not Player FM, and audio is streamed directly from their servers. Hit the Subscribe button to track updates in Player FM, or paste the feed URL into other podcast apps.

Episode 52 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief and Robert interview Good Judgment Chief Scientist Kathryn Cochran, who leads Good Judgment's question development team, about the nuts and bolts of forecasting. We talk about how forecasts can improve adaptability (09:41); how we would craft clear, meaningful forecasting questions for a hypothetical involving Venezuela and Brazil (13:46); what we can learn from the question design and clarification process (21:18); the rigor-relevance tradeoff (26:52); a collectively painful forecasting experience from years ago (28:35); the collateral benefits of forecasting (37:05); the value of question clusters (44:17); how forecasting has affected how we see the world (55:41); and what Dr. Cochran would do to improve the forecasting ability of the US intelligence community (58:41). As always, you may reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com, or nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 1/23/2018)

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