4. Do Yellow Cards Work?

Touchline Theory

Episode 4! Crime and punishment edition. Today, Will poses the question of whether yellow cards in football actually do what they're intended to do. The recent catalyst for discussion being PSG's (otherwise known as Petulant Soccer Guys) temper tantrum finish against Man City, alongside some recent Casemiro bookings and Fernandinho not-bookings.

The duo proceed to conjure up this idea of a number line with nodes as a representation of the infraction thresholds referees define for themselves. These various points determine what constitutes a common foul or card in their book, and largely vary from ref to ref. They also take another angle with the number line idea, remarking that "resolution" for fouls in football is quite poor, especially when compared to sports like basketball, hockey, or American football.

This, then, leads to a foray into the various flaws of cards themselves. These are inconsistencies, infrequencies, and illegitimacies. The hodgepodge includes the biases that arise as a result of suspension implications, Napoleonic Complexes, dissent cards, goal celebrations, verbal scuffles with the referee, overcompensated retroactive bans, cards to coaches, power dynamics between football actors, the "walk off" method, and tactical fouling. Whew!

The second half then opens with a desire to destroy less and create more! Our hosts chat about ideas that might actually be constructive, diving into ways in which this issue can be improved. Amongst these, the notion of increased resolution, call challenges, and foul "paths".

They then dive into the question of whether there should actually be worse punishments for some offenses--a la a "black card" that comes after red. In order to better understand the idea of cumulative punishment, Martin relays a recent, somber anecdote from Malcolm Gladwell's David and Goliath, about Kimber Reynolds. The girl, then 18 and living in California, was murdered in an act of senseless violence, prompting the state of California to enact the "3 strikes law"--a system that harshly ramped up punishments for repeat offenders. It's a difficult story, but has some highly revealing tidbits that apply, with a grain of salt, of course, to the soccer conversation, too. Does too much punishment make crime worse? What's the best way to prevent rule-breaking? What's the purpose of brandishing yellows and reds?

Now Will takes the mantle and drives straight into the heart of what he's dubbed the "Mathzone"--a section of the outline barred off from Martin's view so as to preserve authentic astonishment. And it worked. Bring your TI-84 Silver Edition, because you won't want to miss the cracking finale.

Drawing things to a close, making one final big circle after so many small ones, Will makes his "hot-take" conclusion about the efficacy of our current disciplinary system. They mention the demarcation between punishing the perpetrator of a harsh tackle and rewarding the victim--perhaps suggesting that we ought to investigate better rewards too. But all in all, it's bedtime, and the pair are clearly getting tired on air, so we'll see them next time!

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Find Martin on Twitter @MG_theory and Will @WA_theory

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