EP 40 The China Trade deal doesn't matter. Bear Markets don't need excuses to crash.


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Hi Everyone this is Tim Picciott it is Dec 4th and welcome to episode 40 of the liberty advisor podcast

Man what a tale of two days. Yesteday the market was up over 500 points and today the dow finished down nearly 800 points.

Other big losers included Nasdaq down 3.8 russel down 4.4 S&P down 3.24% and the ten year treasury is back under 3% at 2.912%.

Yesterday a lot of people were optimistic that we’ve come to an agreement with the Chinese.

To me is doesn’t matter whether we have an agreement or not. This crash is has been baking for a long time and now that the FED was dumb enough to believe they could raise rates this many times the crash that has been baking is almost ready to be taken out of the oven

And whether the Chinese and the us have a trade agreement is material. Now if the 25% tariffs were enacted katy bar the bar boom instant recession. That would be like a ton of lead weights to break this camels back and we’re at the point where this camel couldn’t handle another straw but in terms of taking weight off the camel this agreement does very little in terms of taking pressure off. It only avoiding a major self inflicted wound

All along I thought the president was just BS ing. There was no way he could enact those types of tariffs. Doug Casey called tariffs an embargo on yourself and this is exactly what it is in my opinion.

Mike Tyson once said everyone has a plan till I punch them in the face except this time we’d be punching ourselves in the face.

So this temporary agreement did nothing meaningful except avert a self imposed disaster at the end of this month.

And if you are the Chinese yo are getting the raw end of this deal not the Chinese.

The Chinese give us real gooods and we give them digital Iou’s

If we head to trumps twitter feed you see his tweet from earier today about being a tariff man.

Bond market not buying it

Major headwind of QT that has nothing to do with fed funds rates

All of this spells disaster.

If purpose of WE was to raise assets now those asset prices are coming down. Prepare yourself today.

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