Mike's Minute: The vibe of the economy is turning

The Mike Hosking Breakfast

As we end the week can I proffer the idea that there is an intangible starting to bubble as a result of Adrian Orr's big move last week.

As far as I can work out every bank has dropped some of their interest rates again. In fact, some have done it multiple times.

They have done so, they say, because of the Reserve Bank and because of the wholesale rate.

They also said something about being super cool guys who want to help us get head in life. Or words to that effect.

They also gave the game away a bit by saying it's really competitive out there, and that’s the real story.

Banks need to lend money and in a recession that’s a fairly hard trick to pull off.

Might I once again suggest they look at their margin on lending and compare it to the margin their big brothers in Australia charge? And then ask themselves why it is that the number here is larger than the number there?

Although to be fair, Antonia Watson from the ANZ put forward a pretty reasonable defence on that this week. But next time you're in, ask them for yourself and see if you find it convincing.

Anyway, the good news is things are moving. Not much, but a bit.

I am convinced, through data and a bit of anecdotal evidence, housing is moving too. Once again, not much, but a good spring will help. I know of a good number of campaigns ready and set to go in September.

So what is this intangible? It's the vibe. The vibe is important and in this case, it's driven by a desire to see better days, the same way we talked ourselves into a funk these past couple of years. And why wouldn’t we? There was a lot to be in a funk about, and there still is.

But human nature generally wants us to be happy, to have hope.

So we look for indicators - the Reserve Bank and headlines like "light at the end of the tunnel", your mate that says, "what the hell, let's go out for dinner tonight" or "what the hell let's go away for the weekend any way". That's the vibe.

It doesn’t take a lot, and no, it doesn’t happen overnight. It happens gradually. But we are herd-like. You see one, then another, then you want to be part of it.

If you mark this day as the start, by early December remember this day and compare it to then. You'll be surprised at the transformation.

Because I am convinced the transformation is underway.

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