If Moderates are Electable, Why are Ideologues Winning?

The Science of Politics

Atop Democratic primary polls, Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden are re-igniting a debate about whether moderates are more electable. Are voters pushing the candidates to the extremes or just looking for moderate alternatives? Andrew Hall finds that moderate candidates are more likely to win general elections, but that they are running for office less often than extremists. The benefits of office are declining and the costs are increasing, especially for potential moderates. But Stephen Utych finds that moderates are far less advantaged in general elections over extremists than they used to be. Partisan polarization means voters increasingly treat politicians in each party as interchangeable, lowering the costs of nominating extremists. Either way, voters are not the main cause of polarization. Studies: "Who Wants to Run" and "Man Bites Blue Dog" Interviews: Andrew Hall, Stanford University; Stephen Utych, Boise State University Photo credit: Gage Skidmore under CC by SA 2.0. https://www.flickr.com/photos/gageskidmore/19197596204