Manage episode 260805090 series 1070558
By Frazer Rice. Discovered by Player FM and our community — copyright is owned by the publisher, not Player FM, and audio is streamed directly from their servers. Hit the Subscribe button to track updates in Player FM, or paste the feed URL into other podcast apps.
What if the 2020 election was delayed or cancelled? Haven and I take on this scary, and not-out-of-the-question, possibility . . . The mechanics of a delay or a cancellation are complicated. Here are three good articles for context on the topic from: Anthony Fisher, from Business Insider ("We need a backup plan to ensure all Americans can vote in November's presidential election. Our democracy could depend on it.") and . . . https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-we-need-backup-plan-voting-november-presidential-election-2020-4 Ian Millhiser from Vox ('Can Trump Cancel the Election?") https://www.vox.com/2020/3/21/21188152/trump-cancel-november-election-constitution-coronavirus Haven Pell on the Pundificator (World War Three at a Time) https://pundificator.com/world-war-three-at-a-time/ Here is an outline of the potential chaos. Fighting The Three Political Wars and where an Electoral Dysfunction may fit in . . . Novel Coronavirus / Covid-19~1.8/2.0 MM cases in the world 525k/550k in the US~110,000 deaths in the world 20,000 in the USLimited testingVaccines a long way offContinuing though perhaps diminishing fearGenerally good compliance with lockdown, social distancing etc.Dueling Daily Trump and Cuomo briefings. Discussion politicizedR’s lean toward reopeningD’s lean toward public safetyPeople’s lives vs. the stock marketReopening the Country16 MM filed for unemployment in three weeks. Highest by a multiple of 10Stock Market down 36% peak to trough (2/19-3/23)21% peak to today (2/19-4/9)Same today as June 2019, April 2018, November 2017Significant concerns about small businesses e.g. restaurantsSignificant and disruptive long-term changes possible to highly likely Remote workResiliency of supply chains over costAnti-globalist sentimentBusiness travelTourismWhen country reopens how fast will people/customers come backPolitics / ElectionsD primaries essentially fizzled out when Sanders withdrewBiden 49% Trump 43% RCP AverageDemocrats hate Trump more than almost any other President everRepublicans hammering Biden for gaffes, mental infirmitiesNo traditional campaigning during lockdown Conventions – will they happen? Do they need to?Ds Milwaukee 8/17-20Rs Charlotte 8/24-27Who wants to bring thousands of potentially infected travelers into a swing state? There are 535 House members and Senators plus the presidential and vice-presidential candidates. Only 1/3 of the Senate runs, but assume each seat is contested. Eleven governors are up for electionHouse = 435 x 2 = 870Senate = 33 x 2 = 66President Vice President = 2 x 2 = 4Governors 11 x 2 = 22Total candidates = 962Countless candidates for state legislative seatsSince political candidates tend to be older and since they might not be observing public health guidelines, what are the odds on at least one if not several dying during the campaign? https://www.amazon.com/Wealth-Actually-Intelligent-Decision-Making-1-ebook/dp/B07FPQJJQT

60 episodes