A Plague Upon All the Houses: East Africa’s Devastating Locust Infestation

Wealth of Nations Podcast

According to the bible, the 8th plague God sent to Egypt, was one of locusts. East Africa, after suffering drought , cyclones, and army worm infestations is set to suffer a plague of locusts of biblical proportions. The current plague of desert locusts originate from the deserts in the interior of Yemen. The 2019 cyclone season was of unprecedented strength, spreading an unusual amount of moisture into the deserts, causing female locusts do go into a breeding frenzy. Locust infestations are terrifying because locust populations can increase 20 fold per generation, and each generation being less than five months. The largest swarm in Kenya is 37 miles long and 25 miles wide, and there are scores of such swarms that can travel up to 100 miles in a day. These swarms have traveled through Somalia, northern Kenya and southwest Ethiopia. It is expected that Tanzania, Uganda and South Sudan will soon be severely effected as well. Massive plagues have also infested huge regions in Pakistan and India. It is likely that infestations will continue to spread until June
The only effective means of controlling locust swarms is to douse them from the sky using small airplanes. However, the countries of the region suffered from severe shortages of the equipment necessary. Kenya has only five planes, and Ethiopia only three to combat the swarms of locusts. East African nations did plea for aid during earlier stages of the infestation. The government of Kenya requested $2 million in September, and $6 in November. Ethiopia is currently requesting $70 million for containment. One of the most important lessons from the last major infestation of a scale similar to the current one, which occurred in north-west Africa between 2003 and 2005, is that it is essential to control the infestation early. The north-west African locust outbreaks cost $2.5 billion in crop damages, and $600 million to control. The same amount of money could have controlled locusts for a 170 years. Controlling locust swarms is further complicated by the fact that many of the swarms primary breeding grounds are in places like Yemen and Somalia where conflict makes it impossible for preventative measures to occur here.
It is likely that climate change will make locust infestations more common in the coming decades. The locust swarms are especially tragic given that some of the most vulnerable people are effected. Currently 29% of people in Kenya, 21% of people in Ethiopia, 39% of people in Yemen, and 41% of people in Uganda suffer from undernourishment. It is likely that the locust swarms will push more than 10 million into hunger. The people who will suffer the worst will likely be in countries suffering from war such as Yemen, Somalia and South Sudan. However, there are reasons to be optimistic about future outbreaks. The countries of East Africa will likely be better prepared for the next major locust wave. Moreover, East Africa contains many of the fastest growing economies in the world. Ethiopia is expected to grow by more than 7% in 2020, and Uganda, Kenya and Tanzania are expected to grow by around 6%. These nations should in the long run be less reliant upon donors with short attention spans to finance long term control measures. While there is reason to have hope for the future, the current situation is desperate as hundreds of millions will likely need to be spent to bring locust swarms under control and for food aid for people whose farms and grazing lands will be destroyed in 2020.