The Wire - May 17, 2024

S2 Underground

//The Wire//1800Z May 17, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: PM FICO REMAINS IN SERIOUS CONDITION. RUSSIA ANNOUNCES, IMMEDIATELY CANCELS NOTAM OFF CALIFORNIA COAST.//

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-International Events-

Slovakia: PM Robert Fico remains in serious condition following multiple surgeries since his assassination attempt. Local sources claim his condition remains uncertain, and that it will take several more days before his outcome becomes more clear.

-HomeFront-

Texas: The Pelican Island Causeway Bridge remains closed pending safety inspections. No timeline has been given for its reopening or repair.

California: Yesterday afternoon, the Russian Federation announced (via NOTAM) an area that would be host to rocket activity in international waters, approximately 500nm off the coast of Los Angeles. The notice (A1922/24) went active yesterday, and at the time of posting would be active until May 26. However, as of this morning, the NOTAM has been canceled per the Defense Internet NOTAM Service (DINS) portal.

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Analyst Comments: As to the original reason for the Russian NOTAM, few details were provided in the initial notice (which is typical). It could have been to designate the debris field for a Russian space launch, but the language in the initial notice was not typical of such launches and indicated a more military use. On the other hand, the factors provided equally support a space launch, which are frequently rescheduled due to weather (and thus changing the expected booster debris field location).

However, if a Russian military missile launch was planned, announced, and abruptly canceled within a few hours, this would be par for the course with regards to the current strategic tensions between the United States and Russia.

As a reminder, Russia did almost exactly the same in 2022 off the coast of Ireland. Missile drills were announced, planned, then abruptly canceled without comment from Russia. As such, while Russian activities in international waters are generally concerning power-projection moves, the far more concerning military activities are those which are not announced in advance. More strategically, even though virtually zero information is made public regarding the detection of Russian submarines close to American waters, an observable increase in U.S. Navy ASW (Anti-Submarine Warfare) aircraft has been noted throughout the Atlantic over the past few months. It is very challenging to discern training operations or routine patrols from real-world sub-hunting activity; sometimes the only indicator is a lone P-3C Orion or P-8A Poseidon ASW aircraft flying out to sea, out of range of ADS-B trackers, only to return a few hours later with most Americans none the wiser as to their activities. However, considering the extremely tense situation throughout Europe (especially the war in Ukraine), it only makes sense for Russia to have stepped up clandestine power-projection activities close to America’s borders…and for the United States to quietly be doing likewise.

Analyst: S2A1

//END REPORT//