The war of conflicting narratives continues.Bulls point to Q2's robust GDP growth, still relatively low unemployment, an upside surprise in July retail sales, and record high prices for both stocks and existing homes.Bears on the other hand warn about slowing Q3 estimated GDP growth, the triggering of the Sahm rule recession indicator, this week's …

Now that Jerome Powell has gone "full pivot", will stocks shoot higher? Not necessarily, says portfolio manager Michael Lebowitz, who steps in this week while Lance Roberts moves into his new house. He thinks stocks will be on a "choppy road to nowhere" between now and the election. We discuss why, as well as his rosy outlook for long-duration bond…

The Buffett Indicator currently stands at almost 200%, one of the most extreme readings of overvalution in its history.With stocks so richly valued, prudent investors worry that stretching for further gains here may not be worth the risk. Which is why more and more of them are starting to prioritize investing for income over appreciation.A few mont…

We're currently receiving a lot of mixed signals about the direction of the economy?Inflation has dropped to 2.9%. And retail sales for July just beat expectations.That's good, right?But unemployment has rising to 4.3%, triggering the Sahm Rule recession indicator. And credit card and auto loan delinquencies are spiking. Wait -- those sound pretty …

Here's a fun question:What better than interviewing your favorite macro expert?Interviewing BOTH your favorite macro experts at the same time!I'm happy & honored that today we get to sit down with Stephanie Pomboy AND her frequent partner in crime Grant Williams to hear their latest outlook for the economy and the markets, plus if we're lucky, a bi…

Stocks have recovered aggressively since the sell-off two weeks ago.Does that signal the market correction that started in mid-July is over?Likely so, thinks portfolio manager Lance Roberts.We discuss the reasons why, as well as how his firm plans to position for higher prices ahead in this week's Market Recap.WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOU…

Jeremy Grantham is one of the most respected investors alive today.His firm - Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo & Co. -- better known as GMO, manages $billions in assets under management and produces some of the most-followed market analysis on Wall Street. Core to its outlook is that financial and economic extremes will mean revert. And that prudent in…

The real estate market is a tangled mess right now.High vacancies along with higher interest rates and tighter lending standards are wreaking carnage across much of the commercial sector these days.However, higher mortgage rates have NOT brought down residential home prices, at least not on a national average...yet. That said, transactions have fro…

When I interviewed today's guest last year1 he said that the forecast of his proprietary model made him about "as bullish as he'd ever been on stocks" heading into Q1And to give credit where credit is due, his positioning was spot on the money. Both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ increased by 10% in Q1.When I interviewed him again heading into Q2, his …

What a week! The unwind of the yen carry trade sent global markets into free-fall on Monday.Equities tanked, as did Bitcoin, oil and gold. US Treasurys jumped, returning to their traditional inverse relationship to stocks.And then...everything reversed.Most due to central bank intervention in Japan, as well as some better than expected jobs data in…

The Sahm Rule, a widely-monitored recession indicator, triggered on Friday.Some analysts are arguing that it's too early to worry about a slowdown, that the economy is too strong currently.Others warn the US may already BE in recession.So, which is it?For answers, we're fortunate to speak today with Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO & Chief Strategist …

After declining for weeks, the global market sell-off accelerated on Monday. Why?The professional financial advisors endorsed by Thoughtful Money answered this + a number of other burning questions viewers asked in this live Q&A session WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors…

There's a widely-tracked indicator known as the Sahm Rule, which purports to provide an "early warning notice" when the economy starts entering into recession.So, what's it telling us right now?To find out, we have the privilege of speaking to its developer, economist Claudia Sahm. In addition to founding Sahm Consulting, Claudia spent many years w…

Friday's payrolls report miss and subsequent triggering of the Sahm Rule recession indictor caused stocks to continue their sell-offFrom their mid-July highs, the S&P is down -6%, the Nasdaq is down -10% and the Russell is down -7%How much further will the sell-off go?Portfolio manager Lance Roberts and I discuss that in this week's highly animated…

In this video, fund manager & Federal Reserve watcher Axel Merk delivers his real-time reaction to yesterday's FOMC guidance & subsqent press conference by Jerome Powell.The Fed is strongly signaling that it will start cutting interest rates starting in September. Is that wise?WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoug…

When we talk about the "markets", most people immediately think of publicly traded financial assets: the S&P and Nasdaq indices, stocks of popular companies like Microsoft & Nvidia, their corporate bonds, etc.We can see the prices of these assets, and how they change minute-by-minute, on the public exchanges.We receive audited financial statements …

Yesterday I had a private conversation with housing analyst Melody Wright. In it, she revealed how shocked she is by the latest stats that show how the housing market is starting to unravel.Record-low transactions during what is normally the business time of the year for home sales. Inventory up nearly 30% year over year nationally.And of ever grea…

While it looks like stocks could continue bouncing higher in the immediate term, portfolio manager Lance Roberts isn't convinced the sell-off is done yet. He and his firm aren't back to buying yet, as they expect a better chance to enter at lower prices in coming weeks.We discuss that, as well as the recent upwards surprise in GDP, Fed rate cut odd…

When today's expert was last on this program back in March, he predicted we'll see sub-2% inflation AND a recession by the end of this year.Since then, headline CPI has remained stubbornly "sticky" above 3%So, is 2% (or less) inflation by December still his forecast?Or have conditions changed?To find out, we have the good fortune to sit down and ge…

I often emphasize that the most useful people to interview are asset managers.Because they don't have the luxury of merely having an opinion on the road ahead -- they have to commit capital to their convictions, and be judged upon the results.Today we have the great fortune of being joined by one of the most respected capital allocators in the busi…

When Sven Henrich of NorthmanTrader.com was last on this program, he admitted he was a reluctant bull.He just wasn't seeing any material barriers that stood in the way of the ongoing bully rally in stocks at that time.At the end of our conversation, I asked him to come back on this program when his technical analysis tells him conditions have chang…

Well, portfolio manager Lance Roberts has been warning for a while now that stocks were materially overbought and due for a 5%+ correction. And it looks like that started this week, with the S&P selling off 3% over the past 3 trading days.Interestingly, it began with a massive flow of capital into small cap stocks, though that moderated a bit as th…

There is a mechanical force that pushes asset prices higher as capital flows passively into the market every month.As more money flows in, it must be used to purchase assets, at whatever current price they're trading at. That valuation-insensitive purchasing results in higher and higher prices.Today's guest refers to this current system as the "gia…

History is full of examples where nations resorted to taking on ever-increasing amounts of debt to maintain a positive economic growth rate.But it never works out well for those who do. Most often, they end up sacrificing the purchasing power of their currencies in the process.Many analysts are now raising such concerns about the fast growing natio…

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell testified in front of Congress this week to defend his current monetary policy.While we don't have the results of that testimony as of the time of this recording, Powell has recently stated that he is now seeing the kind of disinflationary path for the US economy that he's wanted to. This of course has Wall Stree…

Yes, Federal Reserve Jerome Powell is hoping he can cut rates soon.But it's less because he's proud he's won the inflation battle. It's more because he's afraid the Lag Effect from his "higher for longer" interest rates are starting to visibly damage the economy.Portfolio manager Michael Lebowitz stands in for Lance Roberts this week to talk about …

The US economy appears to be slowing down. Final Q1 GDP growth came in at just 1.4% and, as of this recording, Q2 GDP is currently estimated to be little better, at 1.5%.Retail sales for May, the most recent data we have, only grew at 0.1%.And unemployment is starting to tick up, too, rising last week to 4.1%.Now, none of these stats are particular…

Former Vice President Dick Cheney famously said "Reagan proved that deficits don't matter"True or not, running greater and greater federal budget deficits has become standard operating procedure for Washington DC.When Cheney uttered those words, the annual deficit was in the low hundreds of billions. It's projected to be $2 trillion this year.At th…

When I graduated from Stanford Business School 25 years ago, a classmate announced he was going to work for a hedge fund and the rest of us asked "What's that?"Fast forward two and a half decades and the financial markets are practically overrun by hedge funds collectively managing over $5 trillion dollars.And while certain hedge fund managers have…

There is a massive deviation between stock valuations and earnings growth: growth in the former is far outpacing the latter.This is unsustainable warns portfolio manager Lance Roberts.And unless economic growth suddenly surges (and no catalyst for that is on the radar), then asset prices will need to come down in order to bring the ratio back into …

Today's guest wrote the book "Inflated: How Money & Debt Built The American Dream"In it, he wrote: "The first rule of any fiat system is no fiscal deficit"Well, the US -- and virtually every other G7 country -- is breaking that rule six ways to Sunday given the unprecedented record levels of deficit spending currently underway.Does that mean we're …

With so many recent interview guests on this channel expressing concern about the near-record levels of overvaluation AND narrow trading breadth in stocks, about slowing economic growth, a weakening consumer and rising recession risk, many of you viewers have been asking for a instructional video on how to protect your portfolios from market downsi…

I find myself frequently repeating the advice that in today's highly bifurcated economy, it's critical to understand the difference between the mean and the median in order to get a true picture of what's going on.And the housing market is no different.On the mean, or average, level, US home prices are at a record high.But in a growing number of ma…

Today's stock market is like an iceberg, says portfolio manager Lance Roberts.We can see the surface, which looks fine. The Magnificent 7 stocks -- really now the Mag 5 -- are collectively growing market cap and profits, propping up the overall index.But if you look below the surface, at the bottom 90% of the iceberg, "things look terrible" warns L…

There's an old saying on Wall Street that "no one rings a bell at the market top"This is why so many surprised investors got so badly burned when the DotCom and 2008 stock bubbles burst.But those who noticed the extreme market conditions beforehand, whose analysis of history convinced them that defense was more prudent than fear of missing out, the…

If you listen to the politicians and the headlines, you'll hear a lot of talk about the "strong consumer" who is keeping the economy happily chugging along.But when we hear from actual consumers themselves, we hear a very different story. The majority of households are struggling under the surge in their cost of living post-COVID. Many express desp…

The purchasing power of the world's major fiat currencies has taken a beating since the pandemic.Just in the US, due to the spike in inflation, Truflation now estimates that the dollar has lost over a quarter of its purchasing power since January 2020.Due to this higher inflation, as well as continued expectations for higher secular inflation over …

With stocks still firmly in overbought territory and the uncertainty of the US presidential election nearing, portfolio manager Lance Roberts warns "We're due for a correction"He expects a 5-10% pullback in the near term. And perhaps a slightly larger drop leading up to November as Wall Street de-risks ahead of voting.Lance and Adam review the late…

When asked last month if the US economy was heading into stagflation, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said he didn't see the "stag" nor the "flation" in the data he looks at.Well, US Q2 GDP growth estimates as forecasted by the Atlanta Fed's GDP Now service are plunging. And Q1's weak reported GDP growth rate of 1.6% was revised further downwards to a palt…

So far this year, the top 10 stocks in the S&P 500 have accounted for more than 76% of the index's gain.This is the 2nd most concentrated reading for the S&P in the past 20 years. The highest percentage was 79%, achieved in 2007, right before the Global Financial Crisis.Are we in a new AI-powered Tech renaissance that will continuing powering the m…

Well, the markets are back at all-time highs and central banks around the world are increasingly talking of interest rate cuts...or actually making them.Will that take asset prices even higher from here?Are we in a new golden era for stocks?To find out what the technicals are telling us, as well as to dig into the macro side as well, we're fortunat…

Stocks hit new all-time highs this week and despite being very overbought, momentum is still higher.What could end this rally is the upcoming earnings season, cautions portfolio manager Lance Roberts.Profit growth estimates are EXTREMELY optimistic right now. If they disappoint, a reversal could be fast & furious.Lance and I talk about that, the re…

In its latest guidance released this week, the Federal Reserve is holding interest rates steady for now. The Federal Funds rate will remain unchanged at 5.25%But the Fed did lower its rate cut forecast for 2024 to just 1. And it raised its 2025 rate cut expectations upwards from 3 to 4.It largely did this because its outlook on inflation is notably…

Despite the Federal Reserve's efforts to tame inflation by cooling the economy with its aggressive "higher for longer" interest rates and Quantitative Tightening, the US has managed to avoid recession. Consumer spending has held up, largely due to the "strong" jobs market.But is that likely to remain the case going forward?And if not, if unemployme…

In today's discussion we look at the all-important energy market. Remember, without energy, there is no economy.As we look to the future, where are global energy trends headed?Which ones are we likely to turn to more to power the world of tomorrow?And where are the best opportunities for investors likely to lie?To discuss in depth, we're fortunate …

Stocks remain overbought at current levels and volatility remains low.Portfolio manager Lance Roberts expects markets to tread sideways until next week's CPI data and latest Fed guidance are in.If they show the economy is indeed slowing down faster than expected and/or inflation is moderating, stocks will likely pop as rate cut hopes will be put ba…

According to Truflation, the US dollar has lost nearly 25% of its purchasing power since January of 2020.Many everyday Americans struggling to pay their monthly bills may argue that's an understatement.What the US dollar does, vs real things as well as vs other national currencies, has very real implications -- economically, financially & geopoliti…

As we enter the midpoint of 2024, confidence in the economy and the financial markets is a lot higher than it was at this time a year ago.Stock in particular, have had a phenomenal run over the past 7 months.So it's little surprise that the bulls expect the party to continue on through the rest of the year.Will it?To find out, we turn to the experi…

Between February 2022 and August 2023, in order to combat hot inflation, the Federal Reserve rocketed its discount rate from near 0% to 5.25% -- the most aggressive interest rate schedule in living memory.Since then, the Fed has kept the rate at 5.25% -- the 'higher for longer' eraBut despite this, even when paired with Quantitative Tightening, eco…

The S&P 500 has recently had a near-term sell signal triggered, during a week where many Tech stocks -- including Nvidia -- sold off harder than the general markets.This shouldn't be a cause for major concern. But it explains why the market is down from it all-time high 10 days ago, and may likely have farther to fall until the overbought condition…