Each week, members of the Annex Wealth Management Investment Team discuss the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats of the markets and economy. Go deep and listen to the team talk through what's helping guide their decisions.
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AI momentum continues while a bifurcated consumer is a weakness. AI requires real assets, that's an opportunity while sticky inflation remains a threat.By Annex Wealth Management
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EPISODE 100! "It feels worse than it's been" (the week, not the podcasts)
25:45
25:45
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Global growth is better than expected but higher mortgage rates are dampening housing. There's opportunity as April showers bring May flowers but the threat grows that the Fed may not even cut rates.By Annex Wealth Management
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The dollar is still king while that hot CPI print is a weakness. Opportunity exists in corporate bonds for income, but the unknown unknowns are a threat.By Annex Wealth Management
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Gold is at a 5000 year high while retail is on sale. Active management offers an opportunity across the board but inflationary tailwinds intensify.By Annex Wealth Management
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Firmness in treasury yields but non AI sales projects face an elongated sales cycle. There are opportunities as the overall market broadens but deficits are keeping rates elevated.By Annex Wealth Management
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Manufacturing mojo is coming back while pricing power to margin pressure is a weakness. Opportunities exist in credit while stagflation narratives pose a threat.By Annex Wealth Management
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Manufacturing might be finding a footing in the US while inflation remains a weakness. Cross-country divergences create opportunities while threat is the giant sucking sound of liquidity.By Annex Wealth Management
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"...this is a time most reminiscent of 1998."
20:06
20:06
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The economy is strong and the market is pushing while the US dollar's potential is weakening. There's opportunity to slowly and proactively move money into longer dated bonds while a threat of euphoria is beginning.By Annex Wealth Management
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Markets don't do much in election years until the outcome is clear.By Annex Wealth Management
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This week's strengths are the news highs while Fed pushback continues and so does the rise in yields. There is opportunity in the virtuous cycle but commercial real estate is a threat.By Annex Wealth Management
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Kudos to the Fed's messaging but hot inflation and cold spending is a threat. One man's garbage is another man's treasure (and opportunity) but watch out for the threat of value traps.By Annex Wealth Management
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Trees are growing to the sky while interest rate exposed securities continue to lag. There are opportunities as bad breadth improves but uncertainty remains a threat.By Annex Wealth Management
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We're in a good place but there are still signs of stress with some regional banks. Simple opportunities exist by maintaining a balanced portfolio. The Middle East is becoming a threat.By Annex Wealth Management
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Almost perfect economic data meets hypersensitive areas in the market. Even with a pullback, there are relative value opportunities while a breaking bad forecast includes the market pricing in aggressive rate cuts.By Annex Wealth Management
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The economic damage has been contained but weakness appears while wrestling with the Fed's communication. Opportunity exists with the Fed NOT tanking the economy--but a threat remains if the Fed DOES wind up tanking the economy.By Annex Wealth Management
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The mega map momentum runs into a small cap and earnings retreat. Broadening use of AI is an opportunity while persistent inflation and rise energy costs pose a threat.By Annex Wealth Management
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The good jobs report might be solidifying the soft landing scenario but a cyclical strength isn't great. Do pullbacks equal opportunity? A threat could emerge when the market doesn't get what it wants.By Annex Wealth Management
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Momentum continued but China and the Credit Crunch were a drag. Opportunity exists for active managers while the Fed being slow to react to deteriorating conditions is a threat.By Annex Wealth Management
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Santa Claus came for small caps but the dollar has been dashing downward. Stock pickers need to do some homework but will it be a blue Christmas for bonds?By Annex Wealth Management
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The transition from pause to cut can be bumpy
17:02
17:02
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Interest rate sensitive assets are a strength while the Magnificent 7 might be going from magnificent to middling. There is opportunity in the catch-up trade but transitions can be hard.By Annex Wealth Management
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The buy-the-dip-reflex seems to be strong while the slow slide into stagnation is a weakness. There's an opportunity to get back into balance but data dependence equals skittish investors.By Annex Wealth Management
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Besides learning why one of the members of the Investment Team uses buy-now-pay-later for Chipotle, there are plenty of other things to talk about. Yields are down but asset prices are up but is there weakness in the Magnificent Seven? Opportunity might exist in underperforming sectors that are poised to turn but the threat remains whether or not t…
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Double PHD's on this episode. Good news IS good news but weak holiday guidance is an issue. Genuine growth is scarce, demands a premium, and is an opportunity while a longer rate pause with faster cuts is a threat.By Annex Wealth Management
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Santa's sleigh is being pulled by some Bulls --but risk reward is looking risky. Dumpster diving is back on the menu but the Fed is hurting the government more than Warren Buffet.By Annex Wealth Management
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It's a cliche, but when do we NOT have volatility?
18:26
18:26
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Potential earnings improvement is a strength while mid and small cap stocks underperform. For opportunities; the '40' part of a 60/40 portfolio could have good risk-adjusted returns but rising unemployment is a threat.By Annex Wealth Management
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The Powell Pause and the power of lower expectations.
18:59
18:59
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What the pause means for fixed income and equity markets is a strength while equity valuations remain a weakness. Expectations are low, that's an opportunity. That along with short positioning has led to a decent rally so far. The Fed remains the threat.By Annex Wealth Management
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Artificial intelligence is here and a definite strength Meanwhile, bad breadth pulls equity returns lower and is a weakness. Look to risk/reward for stock and bonds for opportunities and be mindful of the threat of increasingly tighter conditions.By Annex Wealth Management
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The consumer is like the Energizer Bunny...but bonds shouldn't be this nerve wracking. On the other side, if you can hold them, bonds might be an opportunity. Watch for a rally before reality, because reality eventually bites.By Annex Wealth Management
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A busy week for economic data. Plus, a threat to the munchies.
19:10
19:10
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Classic defensives did their work while the consumer might be starting to crack. Opportunity might exist by looking at what hasn't worked while the Fed could be late to the game....again.By Annex Wealth Management
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This week will yield plenty of data for experts to inspect. As inflation starts to diminish, Powell may have painted himself into a corner given some of his statements. And given today’s mass/micromedia – is jawboning still an effective tool when it comes to the economy?By Annex Wealth Management
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Energy and employment are strengths while yield sensitive assets remain weak. There are opportunities via reasonable valuations and increased bond yields but risk premiums and tight bond spreads pose threats.By Annex Wealth Management
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Quality. An often-used term, but what does it mean?
19:44
19:44
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19:44
This quarter, defense has been the best defense. Weakness exists with yields up but everything else down. Opportunities exist to lock in rates and hedge against inflation. Threats include prices the new marginal buyer of Treasurys is going to pay.By Annex Wealth Management
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Too much worry over this week's Fed meeting?
19:07
19:07
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19:07
Defensive rotation is a strength while elevated mortgage rates pose a threat. There are opportunities in China and emerging markets but a floor under inflation remains a threat.By Annex Wealth Management
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Strength in high yield while Chinese governance is a weakness. Opportunities exist when real dates go down but fiscal policy and Chinese bans post threats.By Annex Wealth Management
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Government spending on infrastructure set to ramp up but potential pain ahead for consumers. While markets look to be turning up and it's time to get selective, rising energy prices are inbound.By Annex Wealth Management
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New home sales and consumer confidence are strong, but the cost of funding is a weakness. Look for opportunity at the intersection of value and quality but be mindful of the threat of the risk of a double-dip earnings recession.By Annex Wealth Management
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Solid portfolio construction manages volatility while the problems with China's economy have the potential to spread wider. Opportunities exist via active management while threats include the effect of quantitative tightening.By Annex Wealth Management
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Consumer Sentiment Up, But Volatility Looms
17:26
17:26
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17:26
Both consumer and small business sentiment are up, but earnings volatility may contribute to an overall volatile future. Opportunities may lie in value and energy, but some fear a change in the equity markets.By Annex Wealth Management
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Deficits consistent with a recession, not an expansion
24:20
24:20
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24:20
Economic growth still supportive but concern over big debts and deficits. Short bonds and multinationals vs unanchoring of inflation expectations.By Annex Wealth Management
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Parts of the consumer base are starting to suffer
15:37
15:37
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15:37
The economy continues to power ahead while the bond market is dealing with returns vs. expectations. Are there opportunities to add duration and within commodities? Credit is tightening which is affecting some consumers.By Annex Wealth Management
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Special Episode: Focus on agriculture and commodities.
18:02
18:02
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18:02
Jason Moss, Senior Marketing Consultant at Brock Associates, joins Todd Voit and Jason Cooper to discuss agriculture and commodities.By Annex Wealth Management
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Where consumers are cutting back. What might that tell us?
16:53
16:53
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Better than expected inflation numbers meet a dollar in a downtrend. There might be opportunities to lock in longer term yields but poor regulations might introduced financial instability. Bonus tip: don't go to Costco with Brian Jacobsen.By Annex Wealth Management
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The economy is accelerating but monetary policy is tightening. There are opportunities in niche asset classes, but fiscal policy is setting up a choose-your-own-adventure threat .By Annex Wealth Management
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Portfolio positioning in divergent markets
15:12
15:12
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Equities are strong, especially large cap growth. Watch for weakness in small to midsize banks with the potential of further rate hikes. There is an opportunity for yields with cash management while divergent central banks pose a threat.By Annex Wealth Management
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How does the 3-day Russian 'mutiny' present opportunity?
14:22
14:22
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14:22
Global unemployment is the lowest in decades while US productivity plunges amidst rising wage rates. Options are cheap for those worried about current conditions while the potential for pain with low quality companies and deteriorating earnings is a threat.By Annex Wealth Management
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Is divergence about to snap shut like alligator jaws?
13:59
13:59
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13:59
AI is leading to a broadening of the market while lending conditions have gotten tighter. Is there an opportunity in down capitalization names and what is the threat to economic growth taking a lead from credit conditions?By Annex Wealth Management
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Monday, June 12th. The consumer becomes the weakness.
14:25
14:25
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14:25
Diversification is not a buzzword--it's a strength. Meanwhile, consumer fragility emerges as a weakness while cash on the sidelines presents an opportunity. Beware of the threat of chasing momentum.By Annex Wealth Management
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Monday, June 5th. Rate hikes finally starting to work inside the economy.
22:15
22:15
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The US labor market continues to be strong while Chinese economic activity has been quite weak. Are there opportunities with weakness prices in? Are AI expectations a threat if they're not tamed?By Annex Wealth Management
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Tuesday, May 30th. Focus on AI. Exuberance vs Truth?
17:57
17:57
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Strength this week is the debt deal, but it also shows up as a weakness depending on Congressional reaction . As an opportunity, it's clear that AI amplifies creativity.By Annex Wealth Management
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Monday, May 22nd. The magnitude of a potential correction could be sizable.
15:46
15:46
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The debt ceiling debate sits as both a strength and a threat this week. Weaker breadth and potential stickier inflation is a weakness while companies with strong balance sheets are opportunities.By Annex Wealth Management
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