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Overwatch

Institute for the Study of War

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Overwatch, an Institute for the Study of War podcast, goes beyond the news headlines to give listeners analysis and commentary on issues related to U.S. national security and American foreign policy. The episodes feature discussions with experts and practitioners to explore what challenges and opportunities lie ahead for the U.S.
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At The Margin

Niall Farrell

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Discussions about GDP, housing and other issues seem to assume that we know quite a bit about the topic already. Most of us don't. This podcast will fill in those gaps. During each episode, an expert will guide us through a given topic, with the goal of providing enough information so we can piece together our own informed views. Many of the speakers are working at the cutting edge of their respective fields, guiding us through both the accumulated evidence and showing us where things are li ...
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This is the final episode in conjunction with the Irish Society for Women in Economics (ISWE). This episode features a panel discussion on gender diversity in the Irish Economics Profession. I am joined by Dr. Margaret Samahita, Assistant Professor at UCD; Dr. Kevin Devereux, Assistant Professor at Peking University; and Míde Griffin, now based at …
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This is the third episode in our special series in association with the Irish Society for Women in Economics (ISWE). I am joined by Kate Laffan to discuss the environment and wellbeing. Kate is an Assistant Professor in Behavioural Science at the London School of Economics. Prior to that, Kate was a Marie Curie Fellow at UCD. Kate has done much wor…
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I am joined by Lucie Martin, PhD candidate at University College Dublin, to discuss administrative burdens. If I were to distil administrative burdens into a single sentence it would be the burden created by onerous form-filling or other administrative tasks. We all know the pain that comes with having to fill out yet another form or go through a s…
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Welcome to a new set of episodes put together in conjunction with the Irish Society for Women in Economics (ISWE). In this first episode we discuss the gender wage gap in Ireland. I am joined by Karina Doorley of the ESRI and Donal O’Neill of Maynooth University. Both have looked at various aspects of the participation of women in the Irish workfor…
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Russian leaders have set forth a plan to significantly expand the Russian military in the coming years. This ambitious plan involves the creation of numerous new units and military districts as well as significant improvements in organization and capability. On this episode of Overwatch, Critical Threats Project Director Frederick W. Kagan and Reti…
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Russia Team Lead Mason Clark and Russia Analyst and Geospatial Team Lead George Barros discuss the effects of HIMARS and other advanced Western weapons deliveries on the conflict and the nature of Vladimir Putin's so-called red lines in the conflict. George provides insight into how ISW produces its world-renowned maps of the war in Ukraine. ISW is…
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Russia Team Lead Mason Clark and Russia Analyst Karolina Hird discuss the Russian military's struggles on the battlefield and the challenges faced by Russian occupation authorities in Ukraine. Karolina explains how ISW uses open sources to track human rights abuses and Russian repression measures in occupied territory. ISW is marking the first anni…
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Russia Team Lead Mason Clark and Russia Analyst Kateryna Stepanenko discuss the influence of milbloggers on the domestic Russian information space, the role of the Wagner Private Military Company, and the nature of the Kremlin's nuclear rhetoric. ISW is marking the first anniversary of Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine with a three-part interview s…
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Energy prices are on everyone's mind lately since the Ukranian conflict began. Electricity markets have come under fire at a European level with Ursula von der Leyen saying they are no longer fit for purpose. Presumably this comment is in reference to the fact that wholesale electricity markets operate by setting the price at the cost of the most e…
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Iran is directing a proxy military campaign to contain Turkey’s growing economic, political, and security influence in Iraq. Iranian leaders consider Turkey’s expanding reach to be a threat to Iranian national security, and Tehran is trying to contain Turkish activity without inciting overt state-on-state conflict. Nevertheless, divergent Iranian a…
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This episode of Overwatch is a recorded discussion between ISW analysts reflecting on a paper ISW published in June 2021 entitled Iraq 2021-2022: A Forecast. The discussion will cover what we got right and wrong in forecasting Iraq's political and security trajectories, the risk of civil war in Iraq, how foreign interference and regional competitio…
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In this episode we discuss energy poverty and deprivation in Ireland with Barra Roantree and Michelle Barrett (ESRI). This is the first time I've had the opportunity to discuss research that I've been involved in (available here: https://www.esri.ie/publications/energy-poverty-and-deprivation-in-ireland) We discuss the trends of energy poverty and …
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This episode is all about health economics, a topic which has been on my to-do list since I started the podcast. We give an introduction to health economics and discuss the type of healthcare problems economists can help with. We go through healthcare on the island of Ireland and compare the systems in place north and south and finally we discuss t…
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Today's episode features a roundtable discussion on the Ukranian conflict and what this means for energy and environmental policy in Europe. This roundtable discussion took place at a recent economics of sustainability workshop at the University of Oxford. We discussed a number of topics, including the short term policy response, the implications f…
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A recent Iranian missile attack into Iraqi Kurdistan indicates the growing threat Tehran poses to the United States and its partners in the Middle East. The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) fired 12 short-range ballistic missiles at Erbil, Iraq, on March 13, targeting an alleged Israeli intelligence site near the construction of the new US…
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A new political bloc is forming in Iran, comprised primarily of relative moderates and reformists seeking to reassert their political influence in the regime. This bloc includes prominent Iranian politicians, such as former President Hassan Rouhani and former Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani, who have become increasingly marginalized in the politica…
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I am joined by members of the Irish Society for Women in Economics (ISWE) executive committee to discuss the topic of women in economics. Bróna ní Chobhthaigh, Oana Peia, Karen Arulsamy and Darragh Flannery join to form the panel. Among the topics covered, we discuss some of the barriers faced by women at various stages of the career and lifecycle …
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Iran-backed proxy militant networks played massive roles in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon in 2021. On this episode of Overwatch, ISW Research Director Matt McInnis sits down with ISW Researchers Kat Lawlor and Zach Coles to discuss what Iran’s so-called “Axis of Resistance” may do in 2022. Kat and Zach will also offer insight into the challenges and opp…
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Over the past year, ISW’s Russia team has closely tracked Russia’s efforts to integrate Belarus, its growing threats to Ukraine’s independence, and a range of other malign activities elsewhere in the world. Escalating events in 2022 and Putin's need to set conditions ahead of the Russian Presidential election in 2024 will likely force the Kremlin t…
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The Taliban’s takeover of the Afghan government in 2021 brought the biggest shift in that country since the US invasion 20 years ago. On this episode of Overwatch, ISW Research Director Matt McInnis sits down with ISW Afghanistan Researcher Peter Mills to talk about what to expect in Afghanistan in 2022. Peter will provide his prognosis for the Tal…
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A tumultuous 2021 shows no signs of letting up for Turkey. Caught between the competing interests of Russia, the US, and the EU while being led by a man who believes Turkey ought to assert itself as an equal to those powers means Turkey’s limited resources will remain tightly strained in 2022. On this episode of Overwatch, ISW research director Mat…
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The Taliban takeover of Afghanistan has started a new phase in the war against the Islamic State. Islamic State Khorasan Province (IS-KP) is the local Afghan branch of Islamic State, which fought first the US-backed Afghan government and has continued to fight against the new Taliban government in the hope of creating a hardline Islamic caliphate. …
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Thousands of migrants from the Middle East have become stranded on the border between Belarus and Poland, creating a dangerous stand-off between the two countries. With the European Union behind Poland and Russia supporting Belarus’s authoritarian president, Alexander Lukashenko, the situation has ramifications for stability far beyond the frigid f…
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Turkish President Erdogan may launch a new incursion into Syria that could target the Syrian Defense Forces, the US partner in the counter-ISIS fight. Turkish troops assembled in border areas near SDF positions and Turkish-occupied parts of northern Syria in late October, though deployments appear to have slowed since then. On this episode of Overw…
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The Defense Department recently declassified a briefing Dr. David Crist prepared in 2020 on US war planning in the Middle East against the Soviet Union from 1979 to 1987. On this episode of Overwatch, Dr. Crist talks to ISW Research Director Matthew McInnis about this assessment and what it may reveal about a possible future conflict with Iran and …
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We’re nearing the 20th anniversary of the 9/11 terrorist attacks and the start of the war in Afghanistan. Following the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan, the Taliban have seized control of the country, and the US-backed government has collapsed. Meanwhile, Turkey, Russia, China, and other powers remaining in the region are openly jostling f…
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Russian leaders have a very specific vision for the future of warfare, one that US leaders need to understand if they are to effectively counter Russian strategy and technology. This is the second episode in our series examining the Russian understanding of hybrid war. In our first episode on this topic, we discussed the ways in which Russia’s defi…
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Russian leaders and policymakers use the term “hybrid war” to refer to a very specific type of conflict, while their counterparts in the West tend to use that same term in a general sense to refer to different kinds of conflict that include a mix of conventional and asymmetrical means. US leaders cannot allow this semantic difference to go unexamin…
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This is our second episode on cryptocurrencies. I am joined by Dr. William Quinn, lecturer in finance at Queen's University Belfast. Will, along with his colleague Prof. John Turner, are experts when it comes to financial bubbles. Having observed crypto price dynamics that mimic a bubble, I invited Will along to give his views on whether cryptocurr…
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Today I am joined by Prof. Brian Lucey of Trinity College Dublin who has carried out a lot of research in recent years on cryptocurrencies. We go through the basics behind crypto/blockchain and the dynamics in the market. Brian offers some words of caution for any central bankers that might have one eye on digital currencies! We move on to other ar…
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Today we are chatting to Dr. Josue Ortega of Queen’s University Belfast. Josue is an expert in matching markets. These are essentially markets without money. Normally we use prices to allocate goods to those who value them the most - How do figure this out when we don’t have money? And what if both sides of the transaction have preferences, like ma…
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On today’s episode of at the margin I am joined by Dr. Flavio Toxvaerd to discuss the economics of vaccines. Flavio is a lecturer in economics at the University of Cambridge and has published widely on the economics of vaccines, immunisation and social distancing. Check out his extensive research on the topic here: https://www.econ.cam.ac.uk/people…
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In this episode, I am joined by Linus Mattauch of the Technical University of Berlin. Linus is also a research affiliate with the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and the Institute for New Economic Thinking at the University of Oxford. Linus speaks to us about his work on making carbon pricing work for citizens. We discuss ways in whic…
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The struggle to succeed Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is growing intense. Its outcome will have significant consequences for Iran, the Middle East, and the US. Khamenei’s health has been failing for years, and his retirement or passing seems increasingly imminent. Current indicators suggest that his successor will be more hardline and less wi…
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ISIS has carried out more acts of violence in the Al Hawl displacement camp in the first quarter of 2021 than in all of 2020. The militant group exploits camp members for propaganda and recruitment, fueling its activities elsewhere in northeast Syria. The US-partnered Syrian Democratic Forces has launched an operation to quell and contain ISIS acti…
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Welcome back to a new series of At the Margin! This episode is a bit earlier than expected – I wanted to share it with you as soon as possible. We’ll be back to our usual Tuesday release date in due course. Seamus Coffey joins to discuss corporation tax. Seamus is an economics lecturer at University College Cork and is a former chair of Ireland’s F…
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Civil war and an unrestrained al Qaeda are all but certain should the US withdraw its forces from Afghanistan in May per the US-Taliban deal signed over a year ago. American disengagement will only embolden revisionist powers and create an even more dangerous security situation for the region and beyond. On this episode of Overwatch, Frederick W. K…
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The results of the Iranian presidential election in June 2021 will determine whether Iran shifts toward greater cooperation or increasing conflict with the United States. This uncertainty comes as the Biden administration is trying to reboot diplomacy with Iran using an ambitious agenda that goes beyond nuclear nonproliferation to include thorny is…
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Vladimir Putin enjoyed a successful 2020 despite a slate of setbacks to his agenda. New constitutional amendments will allow him to rule the Russian state for life. Putin manipulated the crisis in Belarus to gain leverage over that country and successfully expanded Russian military ties to several other states in the former Soviet Union. He exploit…
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Tensions between the United States and Iran are high as a transition in administrations has happened in Washington, DC. President Joe Biden and his top national security advisers want to get back into the nuclear deal with Iran and make it stronger if Iran is willing to get back into compliance with the terms of the deal. In this episode of Overwat…
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A civil war between Ethiopia’s central government and one of its regional states threatens security across East Africa. Ethiopia is Africa’s second-most populous country and a US security partner; the humanitarian and security consequences of this domestic conflict have already begun to affect the surrounding region. The fighting has pushed refugee…
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The COVID-19 pandemic is changing the global order and reshaping the balance of power on the world stage. The lessons that nations and their militaries take from this crisis will shape their capacity to adapt to COVID-19 and enhance their resilience to future crises. Elsa Kania, ISW’s Non-Resident Fellow in Indo-Pacific Security, recently published…
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The United States holds enormous power and responsibility in the world. With the US presidential transition underway, ISW President Kim Kagan sat down with Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster (US Army, ret.) to discuss the many challenges facing the United States, including the pernicious effect of Chinese military diplomacy and the threat from Iran. McMaster a…
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The recent local elections in Ukraine were an important political battleground in Putin’s contest to restore Kremlin-friendly rule and annex territory in that country, the objective behind his 2014 invasion of Ukraine. The Kremlin’s costly military operations failed to achieve their desired political outcome, resulting instead in a protracted war b…
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Russian President Vladimir Putin has a longstanding objective to integrate Belarus into Russian-controlled structures. The Kremlin is undermining the Belarusian president's attempts to calm protests while simultaneously using the protest movement to justify Russian involvement in Belarusian affairs. This interference may enable Putin to deploy more…
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Today I am joined by Dr. Fergal O’Connor, finance lecturer at University College Cork. Fergal is an expert in gold and other precious metals. We go through everything you wanted to know about gold. We discuss the historical reasons why gold is valuable and how this has translated into the modern world. We go through the various economic drivers and…
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I am joined by Dr. David Zetland – David is a lecturer at Leiden University and an expert on the political economy of water management. We discuss the economics behind water management and how politics can get in the way. We discuss the economics and politics surrounding water charging throughout the British Isles and discuss the ongoing Irish wate…
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The US is routinely confronted with crises that worsen and expand in scope over time. Modern technology and global interconnectedness have made these self-reinforcing crises increasingly common and intractable. In this episode of Overwatch, Emily Estelle discusses this phenomenon and the danger it presents to US national security.…
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Mass anti-government protests erupted in Iraq in October 2019. The protests led to the resignation of the government in what became known as the "October Revolution," but not before crackdowns by Iraqi Security Forces and Iran-backed proxies killed over 600 people. On this episode of Overwatch, Katherine Lawlor talks about the origins of the protes…
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