Best Jeff deGraaf Podcasts (2024)

1
RenMac Off-Script: Debate & Switch? 19:40

40m ago19:40

19:40

RenMac discusses the options for Democrats to replace Biden following the debate, how the stock market has reacted to the presidential polls, why Neil thinks the balance of risk suggests that the Fed could make a minor monetary mistake by not cutting in September, the symptoms of liquidity and what the movement in Bitcoin and IPOs might suggest, an…

1
RenMac Off-Script: Biden's Burden 23:16

8d ago23:16

23:16

RenMac discusses why housing is hurting, why economic growth in 2024 will be worse than in 2023, how the Fed's risk distribution has shifted, why this is not a momentum market, the potential outside reversal in Nvidia, the positive correlation between banks and yields, and the dynamics of the upcoming presidential debate.…

1
RenMac Off-Script: The Fed Needs To Get On With It 22:35

14d ago22:35

22:35

RenMac discusses whether global election trends will impact the U.S., the significantly different U.S. presidential election forecasts between 538 and the Economist, the improving inflation picture, why admission by omission suggests a September interest rate cut is likely, how oversold conditions are creating opportunities, and why things may be s…

1
RenMac Off-Script: The Big Bull In Little China 16:41

22d ago16:41

16:41

RenMac discusses the latest payroll print, the political impact of the Trump conviction one week later, the impact of lower yields, the global strength of utilities, and the big bull turn in China.By Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick

1
RenMac Off-Script: Conviction Conundrum 18:05

29d ago18:05

18:05

RenMac discusses the political impact of the Trump conviction, how growth isn’t getting away from the Fed, sentiment and the post momentum hang-over industries, and trends vs momentum in China.By Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick

1
RenMac Off-Script: Nvidia’s Scary Shadow Over S&P 21:57

1M ago21:57

21:57

RenMac discusses why the Nvidia phenomenon may have overshadowed some broader concerns, why the bond market was down on the PMI print, why the consensus is onsides now on growth, a high alert for housing, capitulation suggests softness in equities for 2024, little change in polls but big change in betting markets in 2024 presidential race.…

1
RenMac Off-Script: Debate Bait 26:39

1M ago26:39

26:39

RenMac discusses how Biden agreed to debate on his terms, the encouraging inflation print, how much of Biden’s billions have been spent and what Trump could do with them, improving beta vs. average momentum, the peak in short rates, strong election year seasonality, and why China is looking like the U.S. in 2009.…

1
RenMac Off-Script Podcast: Consumer Conundrums 23:07

2M ago23:07

23:07

RenMac discusses how the FDIC fallout may play out next week, the improvement in small banks, the consumer credit conundrum, the short rate risk/reward scenario, and the consumer momentum in China.By Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick

1
RenMac Off-Script Podcast: The Economy Isn’t Getting Away From The Fed 21:32

2M ago21:32

21:32

RenMac discusses the economic data dump this week, why the realized inflation data will be important, Powell’s case for weaker inflation, why the voters remain sour on the economy, whether Johnson will be removed as speaker now or after November, and the outlook for Chinese growth.By Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick

1
RenMac Off-Script: Closer To The End? 19:53

2M ago19:53

19:53

RenMac discusses the low GDP and high inflation reports, how volatile trade figures may have skewed the data to the downside, why the consensus is probably right about growth, the mean reversion in the battleground state polls, why the Supreme Court may delay the federal cases against Trump, how price may be driving sentiment, why you want to be lo…

1
RenMac Off-Script: 3 Pillars of a Low 5:45

2M ago5:45

5:45

Jeff goes solo off-script to talk about the recent equity weakness, the things he looks for to call a tactical bottom and where we stand currently.By Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick

1
RenMac Off-Script: Cuts Delayed Not Derailed 18:50

3M ago18:50

18:50

RenMac discusses the implications of the global gold rush led by central banks; why the latest inflation report still points to when, not if the Fed cuts interest rates; how a cooling labor market means consumers could struggle to absorb higher inflation; the risks Powell & Co. face in deciding to do (or not do); why the adage “sell in May and go a…

1
RenMac Off-Script: Payrolls Eclipse the Bears 19:18

3M ago19:18

19:18

RenMac discusses the bullish jobs number, why it might not keep the Fed from cutting in June, how it might send neutral rates higher, why No Labels ended up with no candidate and who benefits, how rising geopolitical risks are raising prices at the pump for voters, the impact of broader market participation, and why manufacturing is picking up.…

1
RenMac Off-Script Podcast: Powell Told Us What He Told Us 15:44

3M ago15:44

15:44

RenMac discusses Fed Governor Waller’s comments, context, and contrast with Powell; reconciling GDI and GDP; Biden’s bump in the Bloomberg battleground state poll, and some evidence of the momentum trade unwinding.By Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick

1
RenMac Off-Script Podcast: Political & Productivity Paradox 19:06

3M ago19:06

19:06

RenMac discusses how Michigan may determine the 2024 presidential outcome and how it is driving Biden’s EV policies, why the six months of progress on inflation is outweighing the previous two months of setbacks for Powell & Co., June cut looking likely, the productivity paradox and how it takes time to realize the gains from AI, why a partial gov’…

1
RenMac Legends: A Conversation with Ethan Harris 44:49

3M ago44:49

44:49

For nearly three decades, Ethan Harris was a fixture on Wall Street. After a stint at the New York Fed, Ethan went to Lehman Brothers where he served as the firm’s Chief US Economist. I had the good fortune of working for and learning from Ethan during his time as Head of Global Economics at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, from where he retired last…

1
RenMac Off-Script Podcast: TikTok Trade 22:30

4M ago22:30

22:30

Neil and Steve welcome Kevin to the podcast to discuss Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer’s desire to replace Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the House vote to put TikTok on the clock, how China might retaliate against U.S. companies, what copper and commodities are saying, how the U.S. economic outperformance is benefiting Mexico and …

1
RenMac Off-Script: Bullish Zone 20:18

4M ago20:18

20:18

RenMac discusses how the payroll print is bullish for the soft-landing camp, why you should keep watching the unemployment number, how both parties saw what they wanted to in Biden’s SOTU, the takeaways from Powell’s testimony, why there is still momentum in the market, how gold is breaking out, and why you should be careful with sentiment.…

1
RenMac Off-Script: Momentum Vs. Beta 15:20

4M ago15:20

15:20

RenMac discusses the relief rally in response to inflation data coming in as expected, why a stronger economy doesn’t linearly map to inflation, how a May Fed cut could be underpriced, another gov’t can-kick, how Michigan sent warning signs to both candidates, whether Haley will still in after Super Tuesday, the firmness of global indices, and rela…

1
RenMac Off-Script: Fiscal and Fed Fiasco 19:29

4M ago19:29

19:29

Howard joins Jeff and Steve to discuss the depressing U.S. debt outlook from the CBO, how the transformation of Japan’s economy is impacting global markets, the pace of the Fed slowing quantitative tightening, the need to monitor the impact of 10yr yields on equities, why a lower level of bank reserves is an important indicator, why one should be c…

1
RenMac Off-Script: No-mentum 22:03

4M ago22:03

22:03

RenMac discusses the volatility around the recent economic data, moderating inflation expectations, the correlation between air freight and industrial production, the crowded calendar that awaits Congress when it returns, why Neil wasn’t impressed with his Moscow grocery experience, what is and is not a momentum market, and whether bond yields are …

1
RenMac Off-Script: How Much Did Hur Hurt Biden? 19:49

5M ago19:49

19:49

RenMac discusses the good, bad, and ugly for Biden in the Special Counsel report, Neil’s affinity for pop culture, how stronger productivity may be keeping inflation under control, why China may be so bad that it is good, the limited U.S. exposure to FX risk from China, and whether presidential race odds are influencing the S&P.…

1
RenMac Off-Script: A Flukey Month 25:02

5M ago25:02

25:02

RenMac discusses why the flukey payroll report may reduce the Fed’s sense of urgency, why the weather mattered in January, how a boost in productivity may also be a boost to earnings, how employment is more of a byproduct of a strong economy than a cause, whether the disconnect between economists and voters on the Biden economy is narrowing, why th…

1
RenMac Off-Script: Extreme Options 19:53

5M ago19:53

19:53

RenMac discusses Nikki Haley’s prospects, Trump’s Veep-stakes, how voters are viewing an improving economy, the path of least resistance, why Tesla is starting to crack, whether homebuilders should be worried, how pockets of tech options could be concerning, and why Chinese tech sentiment may be setting up nicely.…

1
RenMac Off-Script: Retail Sales & Retail Politics 18:43

5M ago18:43

18:43

RenMac discusses why Nikki Haley’s path to the presidency beyond NH is not a bright one, how better than expected retail sales and residential housing figures suggest a strong economic outlook, the great debate over when and how much the Fed will cut interest rates, why Fed Governor Waller is not riding the team transitory train, why the weakness i…

1
RenMac Off-Script: Canceling That 70s Show 28:34

6M ago28:34

28:34

RenMac discusses why markets shrugged off the latest CPI miss, how the Fed places more emphasis on the PCE, why data may be driving the Fed more than politics, why U.S. bonds are more bullish than elsewhere, how more states resemble IA than NH in the GOP Primary, the importance of Taiwan’s presidential election, the parallels between the 1970s and …

1
RenMac Off-Script: Payrolls Point To Productivity 18:27

6M ago18:27

18:27

RenMac discusses why the latest payroll print points to productivity gains, why 3-to-4 rate cuts are more likely than 6, how geopolitical risks in the Middle East and Taiwan could upend the 2024 economic outlook, global market breakouts, and the broadening of market gains beyond the magnificent 7.By Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick

1
RenMac Off-Script: Yes, There is a Santa Clause 17:01

6M ago17:01

17:01

Renmac discusses how dollar weakness contributes to global growth, the history of 8-consecutive weeks of S&P gains, the latest in the primary ballot battle, excessive inflows and the busy week/month ahead. Happy New Year.By Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick

1
RenMac Off-Script: Trash vs. Treasure 21:16

6M ago21:16

21:16

RenMac discusses how the latest PCE print supports a March Fed cut but why it may not go as far as the market is pricing, whether animal spirits can lead to irrational exuberance, why trash is outperforming treasure, why the U.S. Supreme Court may reach a different decision than the CO Supreme Court regarding Trump’s eligibility.…

1
RenMac Off-Script: Escape Velocity 19:56

7M ago19:56

19:56

RenMac discusses the escape velocity in equities, Powell’s press conference, why a March cut is looking more likely, who wore the boldest sweater on TV, why the rate of inflation is declining despite rather than b/c of the Inflation Reduction Act, the breakout in banks and REITs, and frothy animal spirits.…

1
RenMac Off-Script: Entrenched Disinflation 16:52

7M ago16:52

16:52

RenMac discusses how the latest jobs print shows a stabilizing workforce, why the disinflation process is more entrenched now, the contraction in 2-year yields and BBB spreads, how the latest Republican presidential debate did little to change the race, the link between aid to Ukraine’s border and the southern border, and why ’95 might be the best …

1
RenMac Off-Script: Fed Cuts: When NOT If 22:37

7M ago22:37

22:37

RenMac discusses the latest inflation data, why you should watch Waller, ’95 vs. ’98 debate, the proverbial “everybody” problem, the gap between strategists and the spot price, tis the seasonality, Santos precedent, and Neil riffs w/ disdain on GOP mega donors.By Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick

1
RenMac Off-Script: Yield Dependency 17:16

7M ago17:16

17:16

Jeff and Steve discuss Neil’s holiday traditions, the impact of a third-party presidential candidate, why Republicans feel better about their chances to take the Senate, yield dependency, why healthcare might be well- positioned for next year.By Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick

1
RenMac Off-Script: Inflation Affirmation 18:33

8M ago18:33

18:33

RenMac discusses why the latest inflation data reinforces an extended pause, the disinflation pipeline, why real yields are a good predictor of nominal rate markets, capitulation vs. correction, why overbought isn’t necessarily a bad thing, why Taiwan looms large over Biden-Xi meetings, and how Congress passed a stopgap but punted on all the diffic…

1
RenMac Off-Script: Losing Control 24:24

8M ago24:24

24:24

RenMac discusses what Tuesday’s election results mean for next year, the Republican debates, the emergence of new third-party presidential candidates, why yields are coming down and how that is impacting equities, how the usually boring treasury auctions are becoming more interesting, why the latest unemployment report may impact the Fed by opening…

1
RenMac Off-Script: Nonlinear Risks 23:23

8M ago23:23

23:23

RenMac discusses how the soft payroll print will impact the Fed, how the recent strikes may have impacted the data, why good things happened to housing, the anti-momentum trade heading into yearend, the importance of Nov. 17th to the gov’t shutdown, and Biden-Xi’s APEC meeting, and why Nikki Haley may have a low ceiling in the GOP primary.…

1
RenMac Off-Script: Fed vs. GDP 17:02

8M ago17:02

17:02

RenMac discusses why Gavin Newsom is meeting with Xi Jinping, why “Mike Johnson” is a leading Google search, the momentum behind 3Q GDP, why the Fed is more forecast vs data dependent, how fiscal stimulus is likely to pressure yields, the deteriorating breadth in equities in the face of strong seasonality.…

1
RenMac Off-Script: Don’t Follow the Easy Path 18:28

8M ago18:28

18:28

RenMac discusses Powell’s speech on the outlook, why the Fed is probably done for 2023 but why the economy is not, why builders might be a buy despite elevated rates and why gold is a sell despite high geopolitical tensions, and the latest in Jim Jordan’s ongoing fight to become Speaker of the House.…

1
RenMac Off-Script: House of Horrors 21:48

9M ago21:48

21:48

RenMac discuss the latest political drama around the House Speakership race, the prospect of an acting Speaker working with Democrats, why the upside surprise in inflation this week does not change the Fed’s near-term calculus, why it is not worth using geopolitical events as a basis for a market call, and why the rise in yields is providing an alt…

1
RenMac Off-Script: Grasping At Straws 22:47

9M ago22:47

22:47

The RenMac team discusses the upside surprise in payrolls, why the bears are grasping at straws, how the UAW strike could impact future prints, the increased yield sensitivity of sectors, how McCarthy’s ouster adds to the D.C. drama, the seasonal impact on markets, and how tactical conditions are providing an opportunity for the bulls.…

1
RenMac Off-Script: Cracking Gold 17:50

9M ago17:50

17:50

The RenMac team discusses why hiking is harder for the Fed, the danger of focusing on headlines rather than data, cracks in gold, well-behaved BBB spreads, why a rally without beta is troublesome, more motion than progress on avoiding a gov’t shutdown, and the politics of replacement regarding the Senate seats for Feinstein and Menendez.…

1
RenMac Off-Script: No Capitulation 16:47

9M ago16:47

16:47

The RenMac team discusses why the gov’t shutdown could last a while, why the market reaction was more surprising than the Fed’s decision to erase cuts for next year, why the Fed is unlikely to hike in December either, why the 2-year yield and BBB spread usually respond Fed but not this time, not yet oversold in equities, close to improving seasonal…

1
RenMac Off-Script: 3Ss (Shutdown, Strike, and Student Loans) 16:47

10M ago16:47

16:47

The RenMac team discusses the odds and economic impact (or lack thereof) of a gov’t shutdown, why not all inflation data is created equal, whether short-term soft-landing enthusiasm now could lead to inflationary consequences later, why reduced volatility in line with credit conditions, intra-market correlation, and the decline in Bitcoin.. Also, p…

1
RenMac Off-Script: Fed Following Financial Flow 20:47

10M ago20:47

20:47

The RenMac team discusses recent polling around Biden’s age, Nikki Haley’s chances, the anecdotal wage stories, responding to capital conditions, what the firming energy story is saying, and Neil’s recession odds for next year.By Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick

1
RenMac Off-Script: Data Deluge 13:56

10M ago13:56

13:56

Neil and Steve digest the economic data dump, why August may have been a peculiar month that understated jobs, why cyclicals are looking stronger, why the Fed may still be in the woods, the disconnect between data and voter perceptions of Bidenomics, the September UAW strike, why Mitch McConnell matters, 2024 politics and the Fed.…

1
RenMac Off-Script: Fireworks in Russia not the GOP Debate 18:30

10M ago18:30

18:30

RenMac discusses Trump’s GA mugshot strategy, Neil’s opinion on the Indian guy and gal in the Republican primary, why Bullard sounds like Neil on the U.S. economic outlook, BBB-spreads not following the breakout script, cracks in consumer discretionary could be causing top-formations, previewing Powell at Jackson Hole, and Putin’s power move with t…

1
RenMac Off-Script: Retail Robustness 21:05

11M ago21:05

21:05

RenMac discusses the breakout in 10-year yields, why Neil thinks the Fed is still offsides on growth, the political impact (or lack thereof) of the latest Trump indictment, first oversold S&P condition since last fall, early internal indications of an uptrends, and the early expansion in the put/call ratio.…

1
RenMac Off-Script: Suckers for a Soft-Landing? 13:59

11M ago13:59

13:59

Neil and Steve discuss the Biden administration’s actions towards China, how the Fed might be getting sucked into the soft-landing story, and whether the Fed still has more work to do in the context of an above-trend growth economy.By Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick

1
RenMac Off-Script: Still In The Woods 22:46

11M ago22:46

22:46

RenMac discusses why the latest payroll print will not provide comfort to the Fed, why employment is slowing as the economy is ramping up, why China charts are looking better than their economic reports, whether the 2024 election will resemble 2020 or 2016, how Manchin’s third-party threat could help rather than hurt Biden-s re-election, the politi…

1
RenMac Off-Script: Precision vs. Accuracy 19:20

11M ago19:20

19:20

RenMac discusses the bullish GDP data, receding recession risk, knowing what you don’t know, the low odds of pulling off two soft-landings, how relying on doubtful data and rigidity has led to capitulation, precision vs. accuracy, Mitch McConnell’s health, the increased impeachment inquiry odds following the Hunter Biden plea deal collapse, why ext…

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