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Jesse Felder worked for the largest firm on Wall Street, co-founded a multi-billion-dollar hedge fund firm and has been active in the markets for over 20 years. This podcast is his journey to talk with a number of superinvestors who have been an inspiration to him in an effort to understand what makes them so successful in the financial markets and in life.
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The Market Huddle

Patrick Ceresna & Kevin Muir

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Join Patrick and Kevin bi-weekly when these two traders discuss the week's action in the markets - always keeping the other's feet to the fire for bad calls - yet hopefully having some fun while learning a little something in the process.
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There's a lot of change in the air right now: in the economy, the markets, and of course with the fast-approaching US election.There's so much change currently underway that today's guest titled his latest report: The Macro Winds Are Shifting.How exactly? What will the likely repercussions be?And how should investors consider positioning intelligen…
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The Fed dropped the Federal Funds Rate by 50 basis point this week, ushering in a new monetary regime. Investors need to the know that the playbook has changed.Delivering what sounded like a "mission accomplished" press conference this week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is projecting confidence that inflation is nearly beaten, unemployment remains low, …
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We're going to do something a little different in today's video.This Thoughtful Money channel is all about wealth-building. So makes sense that we focus most of our attention on money.But money is a means to an end. It's not an end in and of itself. No one's goal in life is to die atop a big pile of cash -- instead we hope to use our money to bette…
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As today's guest rightfully often repeats "Energy is life"Without it, there is no economy. No means to power the systems society depends on.And, like it or not, the world still runs on hydrocarbons -- most especially oil.Well, oil is in an interesting place right now. It's starting to become cheap again. After trading near $120/barrell following th…
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Well, the correction that was underway last week appears to have been short-lived.Stocks bounced hard this week, with the S&P up over 200 points.We're at an important point technically, where the current momentum needs to continue to affirm the rally. If not, and we get a triple top, there's a decent chance stocks could then resume a downward slide…
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This week is an interview only week, so Kevin welcomes to the show, Mateen Chaudhry. They discuss Japan, how the carry trade is affecting the global markets, and what Mateen is buying to take advantage of this. Check Out Mateen’s substack : https://substack.com/@discussthetapeFollow Mateen on X: https://www.x.com/discussthetape Subscribe To Patrick…
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Total US federal debt now stands at $35.34 Trillion, now exceeding US annual GDP by $10 trillion.It has been growing at a faster rate than GDP for many decades. That dynamic shows no signs of reversing or even moderating.And on top of the federal debt lies the borrowing of households, businesses, financial institutions and state & local governments…
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After a long slumber, volatility has started returning to the financial markets over the past month.Why? And is this just a brief episode? Or the start of a more turbulent era for investors?For answers, we welcome back to the program Cem Karsan, Founder, CIO, and Managing Principal of Kai Volatility Advisors, widely known as @jam_croissant on X/Twi…
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In this episode of Huddle +, Patrick chats with Head of Global Macro at PGM Global, Aidan Garrib. They discuss the latest movements in the market, as the FED gears up for the highly anticipated rate-cutting cycle. Check out PGM Global: https://www.pgmglobal.com Follow Aidan on X: https://www.x.com/AidanGarrib *Got questions for Kevin and Patrick? S…
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Many consumers are still suffering annual double-digit increases in living essentials. So even though inflation measured as CPI is now reported to be under 3%, that flies in the face of the much higher cost increases real people experience in their daily lives.This is causing investors to start worrying: Will the cost of living outpace my ability t…
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Stocks have had a bad week, make worse on Friday when a mixed payrolls report sent investors into a tizzy trying to speculate whether deeper interest rate cuts were more or less likely in September. They eventually decided the latter, and then sent the price of many assets markedly lower.Portfolio Lance Roberts says the correction he's been expecti…
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This week Kevin & Patrick welcome back to the show, Dario Perkins. They have a fascinating discussion on what makes this economic cycle so unique, the smartest strategies for investors to position their portfolios, and why MMT may no longer hold the predictive power it once did. Check Out TS Lombard: https://www.tslombard.comFollow Dario on X: http…
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This interview comes hot on the heels of the one I just released with demographer Neil Howe in which we discussed the current period of extreme volatility and change -- which he calls the 4th Turning -- that he sees the world descending into.Long simmering issues are now at the point of boiling over, be it economic opportunity, crime, free speech, …
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The fault lines that divide our society are widening.The K-shaped recovery that we've seen since COVID has rewarded asset owners at the expense of everyone else.And millennials and Gen Zers, who are losing faith in being able to achieve a middle class lifestyle, look with increasing bitterness at the relative prosperity of the Boomer generation.The…
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REGISTER for Farmland LP's free webinar on Sep 4 @7pmET by emailing ir@farmlandlp.com One of the asset classes I get the most requests to do an interview on is farmland.It's a form of real estate investment that yields cash flow by producing commodities -- all attractive qualities to investors worried about inflation and/or the loss of purchasing p…
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The markets are back to overbought levels in the near term, both stocks and bonds, assesses portfolio manager Lance Roberts.And while he doesn't think an economic calamity necessarily lies ahead, we don't need one to justify a material downward correction in stocks.Stocks are valued based on their earnings forecast, and right now, forecasts are ros…
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Now that it seems the Fed has officially pivoted, what will lower interest rates mean for the economy and financial markets?Will they be enough to keep recession at bay and prevent a further rise in unemployment?What will the trillions of investor capital currently parked in T-bills and money markets go if the yields on those assets go down?For a t…
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Last week in his much-anticipated speech at Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell announced the "time has come for policy to adjust". World markets now have a 100% probability expectation that the Federal Funds Rate will be cut at the upcoming September meeting.In the words of Nick Timiraos, chief economist for the Wall Street Journa…
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The war of conflicting narratives continues.Bulls point to Q2's robust GDP growth, still relatively low unemployment, an upside surprise in July retail sales, and record high prices for both stocks and existing homes.Bears on the other hand warn about slowing Q3 estimated GDP growth, the triggering of the Sahm rule recession indicator, this week's …
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Now that Jerome Powell has gone "full pivot", will stocks shoot higher? Not necessarily, says portfolio manager Michael Lebowitz, who steps in this week while Lance Roberts moves into his new house. He thinks stocks will be on a "choppy road to nowhere" between now and the election. We discuss why, as well as his rosy outlook for long-duration bond…
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This week Kevin & Patrick welcome back to the show, Louis Vincent Gave from Gavekal Research. They dive into the key differences between Chinese and Western capital markets, uncover why gold is surging in a structural bull market, and tackle the challenges of today’s investment landscape. Check Out Gavekal Research: https://www.gavekal.comFollow Lo…
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The Buffett Indicator currently stands at almost 200%, one of the most extreme readings of overvalution in its history.With stocks so richly valued, prudent investors worry that stretching for further gains here may not be worth the risk. Which is why more and more of them are starting to prioritize investing for income over appreciation.A few mont…
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We're currently receiving a lot of mixed signals about the direction of the economy?Inflation has dropped to 2.9%. And retail sales for July just beat expectations.That's good, right?But unemployment has rising to 4.3%, triggering the Sahm Rule recession indicator. And credit card and auto loan delinquencies are spiking. Wait -- those sound pretty …
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Here's a fun question:What better than interviewing your favorite macro expert?Interviewing BOTH your favorite macro experts at the same time!I'm happy & honored that today we get to sit down with Stephanie Pomboy AND her frequent partner in crime Grant Williams to hear their latest outlook for the economy and the markets, plus if we're lucky, a bi…
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Stocks have recovered aggressively since the sell-off two weeks ago.Does that signal the market correction that started in mid-July is over?Likely so, thinks portfolio manager Lance Roberts.We discuss the reasons why, as well as how his firm plans to position for higher prices ahead in this week's Market Recap.WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOU…
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Jeremy Grantham is one of the most respected investors alive today.His firm - Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo & Co. -- better known as GMO, manages $billions in assets under management and produces some of the most-followed market analysis on Wall Street. Core to its outlook is that financial and economic extremes will mean revert. And that prudent in…
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In this episode of Huddle +, Patrick catches up with Brent Kochuba, the founder of Spot Gamma, to break down the forces driving recent market volatility. They delve into the nuances of gamma and the dispersion trade, offering actionable insights for investors. Whether you’re a seasoned trader or just curious about the mechanics behind market moves,…
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The real estate market is a tangled mess right now.High vacancies along with higher interest rates and tighter lending standards are wreaking carnage across much of the commercial sector these days.However, higher mortgage rates have NOT brought down residential home prices, at least not on a national average...yet. That said, transactions have fro…
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When I interviewed today's guest last year1 he said that the forecast of his proprietary model made him about "as bullish as he'd ever been on stocks" heading into Q1And to give credit where credit is due, his positioning was spot on the money. Both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ increased by 10% in Q1.When I interviewed him again heading into Q2, his …
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What a week! The unwind of the yen carry trade sent global markets into free-fall on Monday.Equities tanked, as did Bitcoin, oil and gold. US Treasurys jumped, returning to their traditional inverse relationship to stocks.And then...everything reversed.Most due to central bank intervention in Japan, as well as some better than expected jobs data in…
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This week Kevin & Patrick welcome back to the show, Marko Papic. They discuss Marko’s recent change to BCA Research, how he incorporates geopolitics into his investment framework and why everyone is doing it backwards. Check Out BCA Research: https://www.bcaresearch.comFollow Marko on X: https://www.x.com/geo_papic Subscribe To Patrick’s New Educat…
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The Sahm Rule, a widely-monitored recession indicator, triggered on Friday.Some analysts are arguing that it's too early to worry about a slowdown, that the economy is too strong currently.Others warn the US may already BE in recession.So, which is it?For answers, we're fortunate to speak today with Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO & Chief Strategist …
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On this weeks Huddle +, Patrick welcomes, the author of The Felder Report, Jesse Felder. They discuss the recent market trends, the commodity secto, the AI bubble and what comes next… Check out ‘The Felder Report’: https://thefelderreport.com/ Follow Jesse on X: https://www.x.com/JesseFelder *Got questions for Kevin and Patrick? Submit your questio…
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After declining for weeks, the global market sell-off accelerated on Monday. Why?The professional financial advisors endorsed by Thoughtful Money answered this + a number of other burning questions viewers asked in this live Q&A session WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors…
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There's a widely-tracked indicator known as the Sahm Rule, which purports to provide an "early warning notice" when the economy starts entering into recession.So, what's it telling us right now?To find out, we have the privilege of speaking to its developer, economist Claudia Sahm. In addition to founding Sahm Consulting, Claudia spent many years w…
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Friday's payrolls report miss and subsequent triggering of the Sahm Rule recession indictor caused stocks to continue their sell-offFrom their mid-July highs, the S&P is down -6%, the Nasdaq is down -10% and the Russell is down -7%How much further will the sell-off go?Portfolio manager Lance Roberts and I discuss that in this week's highly animated…
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In this video, fund manager & Federal Reserve watcher Axel Merk delivers his real-time reaction to yesterday's FOMC guidance & subsqent press conference by Jerome Powell.The Fed is strongly signaling that it will start cutting interest rates starting in September. Is that wise?WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoug…
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When we talk about the "markets", most people immediately think of publicly traded financial assets: the S&P and Nasdaq indices, stocks of popular companies like Microsoft & Nvidia, their corporate bonds, etc.We can see the prices of these assets, and how they change minute-by-minute, on the public exchanges.We receive audited financial statements …
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Yesterday I had a private conversation with housing analyst Melody Wright. In it, she revealed how shocked she is by the latest stats that show how the housing market is starting to unravel.Record-low transactions during what is normally the business time of the year for home sales. Inventory up nearly 30% year over year nationally.And of ever grea…
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While it looks like stocks could continue bouncing higher in the immediate term, portfolio manager Lance Roberts isn't convinced the sell-off is done yet. He and his firm aren't back to buying yet, as they expect a better chance to enter at lower prices in coming weeks.We discuss that, as well as the recent upwards surprise in GDP, Fed rate cut odd…
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This week Kevin & Patrick welcome to the show, the author of Street Smarts, Ryan Metcalf. Ryan tells us how he makes such a good looking free daily letter, how he never takes a break, and why it’s the perfect way to start your day. Check Out The Street Smarts Daily Letter: https://www.marketlabnewsletter.com/ Subscribe To Patrick’s New Educational …
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When today's expert was last on this program back in March, he predicted we'll see sub-2% inflation AND a recession by the end of this year.Since then, headline CPI has remained stubbornly "sticky" above 3%So, is 2% (or less) inflation by December still his forecast?Or have conditions changed?To find out, we have the good fortune to sit down and ge…
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I often emphasize that the most useful people to interview are asset managers.Because they don't have the luxury of merely having an opinion on the road ahead -- they have to commit capital to their convictions, and be judged upon the results.Today we have the great fortune of being joined by one of the most respected capital allocators in the busi…
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When Sven Henrich of NorthmanTrader.com was last on this program, he admitted he was a reluctant bull.He just wasn't seeing any material barriers that stood in the way of the ongoing bully rally in stocks at that time.At the end of our conversation, I asked him to come back on this program when his technical analysis tells him conditions have chang…
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Well, portfolio manager Lance Roberts has been warning for a while now that stocks were materially overbought and due for a 5%+ correction. And it looks like that started this week, with the S&P selling off 3% over the past 3 trading days.Interestingly, it began with a massive flow of capital into small cap stocks, though that moderated a bit as th…
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There is a mechanical force that pushes asset prices higher as capital flows passively into the market every month.As more money flows in, it must be used to purchase assets, at whatever current price they're trading at. That valuation-insensitive purchasing results in higher and higher prices.Today's guest refers to this current system as the "gia…
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On this weeks Huddle +, Patrick welcomes back to the show, Tavi Costa. Tavi gives us an update on precious metals, mining, his thoughts on the economy, and the impact of the AI boom. Check out ‘Crescat Capital’: www.crescat.net Follow Tavi on X: https://www.x.com/tavicosta *Got questions for Kevin and Patrick? Submit your questions to: nostupidques…
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History is full of examples where nations resorted to taking on ever-increasing amounts of debt to maintain a positive economic growth rate.But it never works out well for those who do. Most often, they end up sacrificing the purchasing power of their currencies in the process.Many analysts are now raising such concerns about the fast growing natio…
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Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell testified in front of Congress this week to defend his current monetary policy.While we don't have the results of that testimony as of the time of this recording, Powell has recently stated that he is now seeing the kind of disinflationary path for the US economy that he's wanted to. This of course has Wall Stree…
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