KP Talks Dollars and Sense helps you learn financial literacy and provides real-time updates on all things housing, finance, and real estate with your host Kevin Peranio. As an owner and C-level executive for 20 plus years in finance, KP is here to serve you with all of his knowledge and experience. Tune in each week for more episodes. Kevin Peranio does not render or offer to render personalized investment or tax advice through KP Talks Dollars and Sense. The information provided is for inf ...
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AMD reports robust semiconductor performance. Economic indicators suggest positive momentum. 10-Year Treasury yield rises to 4.27%. Elevated interest rates hint at economic shifts ahead. Strong liquidity continues to support U.S. financial markets. Here are the key points: 00:00 Introduction and Tech Company Earnings 01:45 Fed's Stance and Economic…
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The Flow Of Money: Stocks, Bonds, And Volatility
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Retail Sales Beat Expectations, Inflationary Pressures Rise. Core Retail Sales Surge, Signaling Strong Consumer Demand. Retail Sales Accelerate, But Inflationary Concerns Linger. Multifamily Construction Slowdown, Rental Prices Soar. Rising Interest Rates Squeeze Multifamily Market. Housing Shortage Drives Up Rental Costs. Here are the key points: …
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AI is boosting jobs, not killing them. The U.S. remains the world's strongest economy, with China in second. AI is a powerful engine for efficiency. AI is now the driving force shaping the global economy. While productivity soars, the job market faces new challenges. Long-term debt is becoming unsustainable. Here are the key moments: 00:48 Carringt…
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Economic Challenges and How to Weather Them
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Rates don’t follow a straight path. The 10-year Treasury is at 4.02%, and the market is responding. Strong job reports and solid economic growth are in play. We’re expecting a 25 basis point cut in November, and another in December, but a 50-point cut isn’t likely right away. Rates remain high, especially for lower-income individuals, but cuts are …
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What China’s Stimulus Means for the Global Economy
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The Fed's been playing it cool, but they might be ready to lower interest rates again. It's a big deal because it can affect everything from your mortgage to your investments. China, the world's second-biggest economy, just dropped a massive stimulus package. This could be good for global markets, but it could also lead to higher prices. Here's the…
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The Fed just cut rates by 50 basis points. But this pattern is about to shift—are you ready for the change? Housing equity has skyrocketed to $33.8 trillion. So, why keep your cash sitting idle? It’s time to put your money to work and follow the smart money trend. Here are the highlights of the episode: 00:00 Cash vs. Investments 00:43 Housing Equi…
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Fed Decisions, Market Volatility, and Global Shifts
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Now is a great time to buy a house. Housing prices are cooling down without a crash, and lower interest rates are driving up demand. Options give you rights; futures come with obligations. Quad Witching Day: A major event when quarterly derivatives expire, causing market waves. It’s a big deal! Here’s the key moments: 00:00 Immigration and Populati…
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Mortgage Market Updates and Treasury Trends
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The Fed has cut interest rates, following the lead of other central banks. Global oil demand is on the decline. Liquidity is growing in financial markets, creating new opportunities. Jobless claims have risen slightly, signaling a potential softening in the labor market. The high U6 unemployment rate lines up with findings from the latest JOLTS rep…
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Inflation Eases, but the Labor Market Remains a Concern
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Inflation has its benefits, but the real driver is the labor market. We'll see if recent figures are overstated with the August jobs report. Meanwhile, jobless claims are slowly ticking up, and lenders are now demanding upfront agreements. On the bright side, rates have dipped. Catch the highlights from this week’s episode: 00:00 Introduction 01:03…
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Market Moves: AI and Institutional Trading
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Happy Labor Day! The top 500 asset managers control a whopping $131 trillion. Every day, $558 billion is traded on US stock markets, with 90% of this trading done by institutions and 80% of it automated. Bad economic news often sparks market sell-offs, making options trading feel risky, like gambling. When the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, i…
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Insurance Crisis, Market Updates, and AI Weather
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Insurance rate hikes are intended to stabilize finances, but urgent government action is needed to address the ongoing insurance crisis. Federal regulation remains limited due to differing state-level rules. Despite recent turbulence from the yen carry trade, stock markets remain resilient. The S&P 500 is only 1% away from its all-time high. NVIDIA…
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Growing recession concerns. Consumer confidence is wavering, job cuts are on the rise, and critical indicators are signaling a potential recession. The Federal Reserve has missed the mark on unemployment predictions, underestimating by 2.5%, with trends suggesting it could surpass 7%. Here are the key moments: 00:00 Introduction and Growth Scare 04…
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Fed Pressured as Market Fluctuation Intensifies
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Credit, not cash, is the true engine of the economy. The recent turmoil in the stock market is a prime example of how leverage and contagion can wreak havoc. Leverage, credit, contagion—these forces drive the financial world. Strong ISM news provided a boost to the 10-year Treasury yield, defying market expectations for lower rates. Despite the mar…
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McDonald's is encountering its largest sales hurdle in 20 years, opening doors for strategic pivots and new opportunities. The economy is increasingly driven by 70% non-baby boomers, with baby boomers accounting for 30%, indicating a shift in market influence. The Magnificent Seven comprise one-third of the S&P 500's total value. The tech world is …
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Many people are actively trading futures and options, and their movements are driving market trends. With futures options expiring soon, it's a critical time in the market. The recent CrowdStrike incident wasn't solely their fault; it highlights how a single point of failure can impact any business. Traditional CEOs are struggling with the hefty bi…
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Financials Kick Off Earnings Season Strong
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Financials set the tone for the earnings season. Retail sales are projected to decline by 0.2%. The Big 3 financials are influencing growth expectations. Earnings numbers have a significant impact on the flow of money and employment. 00:00 Introduction 00:26 Anaheim Event Overview 01:15 Federal Reserve Updates 01:59 Market Reactions 03:07 Wage Infl…
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The Core PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) gauge is critical for understanding economic policy decisions, particularly inflation-related ones. Currently, inflation is showing signs of slowing down. The post-COVID recovery in supply chains and trends in service inflation are significant factors shaping the broader economic landscape. Recent jo…
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AI is the greatest revolution yet. The Fed's balance sheet is shrinking. The Fed's latest numbers indicate a drop in GDP estimates. Learn how AI impacts the markets and what GDP numbers are telling us. Here's the inside scoop! Introduction and National Canada Day at 00:00. US Men's National Soccer Team Loss at 00:26 Stock and Bond Market Overview a…
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Lower rates might benefit consumers. We buy and sell money and that's what we do. We're still helping people get a house. This episode we will understand how the secondary market sees our business and the core of the business. 00:00 Introduction 00:22 Home of Prince 00:31 Minneapolis Visit 00:45 Total Expert Event 01:17 AI in Marketing 02:10 Buying…
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Most Federal Reserve officials (14 out of 16) think unemployment will stay low, around 4.1%. While 2 Fed members think it might even drop a little lower, to 3.8%. Unemployment is getting worse than expected. The Fed still wants two things: lots of jobs and stable prices. They also want to keep interest rates from getting too high in the long run. T…
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Multiple banks have cut including the European Central Bank. More banks will cut in their upcoming meetings. We don't need a very strong dollar. The DOJ warns not to share specific commission amounts. The commission doesn't want commission requirements posted anywhere on the MLS. The DOJ is warning everyone. Don't get caught off guard. Learn more a…
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It’s Jobs Week and the Fed is in Blackout Mode
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The softening in prices paid is noted in the manufacturing report. A significant drop in manufacturing prices could indicate a slowing economy. Declining copper prices suggest a potential economic slowdown. There was a 4% month-over-month decrease in manufacturing prices. Tesla is leading the charge in electric vehicles. The National Electric Vehic…
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NVIDIA just reported a staggering $14.9 billion in Q1! NVIDIA's earnings were described as a Fed Open Market Committee meeting. Big tech companies contribute to NVIDIA's net earnings. Last week's CPI report suggested easing. Positive unemployment and growth data pushed the 10-year Treasury yield up. Bad news in the economy is good news for mortgage…
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Leading indicators now show a slowing economy and lower GDP growth. BlackRock’s Rick Rieder weighs in on how higher rates have influenced inflation. GDP is not growing as much. Election-year politics may be influencing efforts to lower food costs. Inflation numbers coming down means it's going up at a slower pace. Legislators are working to lower f…
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The 10-year Treasury yield spread to the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is narrowing. The spread may shift interest rates. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is tightening. $16.9 trillion in total home equity at the end of Q1. $850 billion in tappable Freddie Mac Equity against Freddie Mac First Liens. A staggering $11 trillion in tappable equity up to 8…
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Inflation feels like a wild ride. Is it stuck in high gear, or is it just a temporary phase? Lease and new prices are still down in the 12-month index. ISM services number contradicts to expected numbers of 52 and fell short to 49.4. Only 5,000 jobs created for leisure and hospitality out of 175,000. Are service businesses struggling, or is this a …
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Market Updates, Upcoming Events, Inflation and More
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Record-breaking $70 billion of Treasury sales auctioned this week. Big numbers coming up for the next quarterly refunding amount that will be announced by the Secretary of Treasury, Janet Yellen. Above $1.6 trillion quarterly announcement will rattle the markets. We kept the inflation to 0.3% and markets did not sell off in return. Stock and bond m…
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The PCE and Why the Cost of Money Matters
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Shifting from stocks to safer bets with yields going up in the Treasury market. More and more selling pressure in the stock market as yields go up. Gold has been going up while Bitcoin is halving. Bitcoin is digital gold. 60 to 70 companies are reporting earnings this week which is a very big deal. Personal Consumption Expenditure is the Fed's pref…
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The CPI is at 45% of the index attributed to shelter, housing, and owner's equivalent rent. Auto costs, including insurance, saw a notable rise, with month-over-month increases. Is the 3% the new 2%? When will the Fed give up? Auto insurance and housing are the outlier for the majority of CPI components that stayed under the 3% threshold. 50 of the…
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The jobs report has been making waves, with 303,000 new jobs added. Fed's mandate isn't just about job creation but a balance between inflation, price stability, and full employment. Fed's moderate long-term interest rate mandate is at 2.5% of our GDP. It's a balancing act like no other, and the stakes couldn't be higher. Cathie Wood expects by 205…
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The Fed's mission is to stay "data-dependent" has us all glued to our screens, and analyzing its every move. The Fed's every decision impacts our businesses, from investment strategies to staffing levels and beyond. We are witnessing manufacturing data expansion numbers, signs that are all pointing toward growth. Inflation, job market, interest rat…
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AI is revolutionizing productivity in our industry. Mortgage Collaborative? It's like a powerhouse of independent mortgage bankers, credit unions, and banks all vibing together to revolutionize the industry. VA handbooks and realtor commissions had a change from NAR settlements for our veterans. We've got some major economic revelations headed our …
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Mortgage Rates, Treasury Yields, and Fed Updates!
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23:48
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Industry giant ICE acquired Black Knight, creating a data and software powerhouse. Remember when you had to choose between fast, good, or cheap? Well, not anymore. Now, it's all about getting the best of everything at once. Software is boosting our productivity like never before. This productivity surge is shaking things up in the job market. Despi…
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The jobs report is confusing! Strong headline numbers masked revisions that point to a weakening labor market. Is this a growth scare for the economy? This could mean lower mortgage rates. Is the US economy hitting the brakes? Three major cities – St. Louis, New York, and Atlanta – are all saying the economy grew slower than expected this quarter. …
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Credit card debt hit a record high, jumping 4% in Q3 of 2023! But the good news is it's an opportunity for us. Our smart refinancing and home equity plans can offer cash to those who need it. Good news for homeowners. The equity in your home can be your secret weapon against debt. Who showed up on Super Tuesday? Will a third-party candidate shake t…
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How wealthy is the top 1% in America? The top 1% in America has a combined worth of $35 trillion. About 55% to 61% of their total wealth comes from investments in stocks and similar assets. The bottom 50% of Americans are all about real estate. Their combined worth is only $7 trillion, which is significantly less compared to the $35 trillion held b…
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NVIDIA's Q4 forecast is out of this world: 415% growth and $20 billion in revenue. How do they do it? Well, it's all about their expertise in semiconductors, chips, and top-notch software. AI is booming, and NVIDIA is right at the center of it all. From businesses to everyday tasks, automation, and productivity are on the rise. In other news, Goldm…
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Brace yourself for a headline number that might hit 2.9! But wait, there's a twist! The core, excluding food and energy, could spike to a whopping 3.6! 😲 It's like watching a gripping drama unfold in real-time! We're swapping out last year's chilly January figures for this year's sizzling stats, promising some intriguing comparisons. But here's the…
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Non-banks dominate Ginnie Mae! That's right, according to the latest Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Chart of the Week, independent lenders like us are leading the way in government-backed lending! Ginnie Mae deals with government loans like FHA, VA, and USDA, and we're here for the underserved, tackling the tough credit situations. Ever wonde…
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Will May Bring Cuts? What's Brewing in the Market?
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The world's markets are on FIRE! S&P hits an all-time high while China's markets are facing a 15% to 16% dip. Bears are growling, and cautious minds are whispering, but if you're not backing the top 6 or 7 businesses worldwide – Apple, Google, Meta – what's your strategy? 🧐 They're not flawless, but the cash keeps flowing! The question is: Are you …
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Ever wondered about the link between a softening economy and mortgage rates? The 2-year Treasury is making moves, signaling potential shifts in mortgage rates. Increased demand for Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities can also contribute to lower rates. The Bank of Japan is considering a rate hike after 16 years! If Japan raises rates, US asse…
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What's REALLY going on with Fed Rate Hikes?!
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Is March really off the table for the Fed's rate cut? CPI report caused a stir with a 0.4% inflation spike, leaving everyone anxious about March. Unravel the mystery behind the false narrative and where the truth lies. What's the deal with the trade deficit? Signs of a softening economy? The Fed fund futures contract might be misleading. Where will…
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Jobs report shocker: Big number, bigger problems? 683k quietly vanished, labor force shrank, and full-time jobs melted like ice. 676,000 people magically disappear from the workforce, impacting the unemployment rate at 3.7%. Unemployment at 6% for high school grad. The soft landing is history, and things are heating up for the Fed. Wage inflation's…
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Will Inflation's Chill Cost Jobs and Homes?
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What's next for the economy? Deflation is knocking on our doors, and we can't ignore it. China and Germany are deflating, and guess what? We're importing it. Slow growth and job losses might be next. The Fed is cutting rates, but will it be enough? Boomers got that equity cushion, but young bucks might feel the pinch. Is it unfair? Tune in, ask que…
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Supply issues are heating up, and rates are dropping, creating a surge in demand. Remember the 5 million borrowers priced out at 8% rates? They're back in action now. According to NAR data, existing home sales unexpectedly soared by 0.8% last month. Don't miss out – seize the opportunity. Keep your eyes on the 10-year treasury—our mortgage rate com…
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Fasten your seatbelts for a financial rollercoaster. Wondering about rates? Keep it simple - 525 to 550 on the FED funds rate is the anchor. It's like a traffic light, slowing things down. Small business, cars, homes – all in the mix. We're in a slowdown since the rate hikes, and they're not going higher anytime soon. Brace for the deflation wave. …
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The MBA just revealed a staggering 23% growth, crossing the $2 trillion mark next year. If you're not hitting that 20% mark, it's time to rethink your game. I've been forecasting for over two decades, and this is a game-changer. Numbers don't lie. Dive into the numbers and elevate your game. Ever wondered why mortgage rates don't always follow the …
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Exciting news. Rates are dropping, and next year is shaping up to be fantastic. Now's the time to invest in tech and invest in your company. If you're in California, there's a golden opportunity to influence how things operate. Be a voice, have a seat at the table – it's not too late! Politics? Forget about it! Your voice matters, and Suzy Milazzo'…
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Job alert! Only 573,000 seasonal spots this year – lowest since 2013. Job seekers surged by 33% on Indeed, but employers demand 8.2% less. We need to bridge the gap. Is the American dream on life support? According to a Wall Street Journal poll, 36% say it's still kickin'! Home sales are making a comeback, and 61% of Latinos believe in the dream! W…
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Bank of America's latest move is making waves. BofA is silently revealing some eye-popping unrealized losses in their latest earnings report! No need to panic, though! Bank of America's got cash to spare. 💰 FHA's annual report just dropped, and guess what? Still rockin' those solid funds even after slashing monthly MIP! No sign of defaults or losse…
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