Stay ahead in the world of business, finance and technology with our regular podcast series, featuring interviews with leading figures in the business world.
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Every week, we discuss topical economic themes from a European perspective and provide perspective on key macro data news.
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Politics, geopolitics, economics, arts, and current affairs Constable has an extensive broadcasting background. He presented the Wall Street Journal's flagship daily TV show for many years and frequently hosted the syndicated John Batchelor radio show in New York. You'll find his written work in The Wall Street Journal, Barron's, Time, Forbes.com, Fortune, the New York Post, the New York Sun, and the South China Morning Post. He co-authored the award-winning book "WSJ Guide to the 50 Economi ...
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The French Elections Unpacked, with Hadrien Camatte (Natixis)
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Today, we dive into the aftermath of the French parliamentary elections – a pivotal event that has captured the attention of financial markets and the broader public across Europe. To help us navigate the complexities of the outcome and the future implications, we have a special guest, Hadrien Camatte. Hadrien is an expert on the French economy at …
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The Impact of AI on Finance & Central Banks, with Hyun Shin (BIS)
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We dive into the transformative world of Artificial Intelligence and its impact on the financial sector and central banks. AI's rapid advancements and diverse applications are creating a veritable AI bonanza, reshaping the economy and financial systems globally. Join us as we explore these changes with Hyun Shin from the Bank for International Sett…
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Euro Area Inflation Expectations, with Ricardo Reis (London School of Economics)
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In today's epsiode, we dive deep into the economic dynamics shaping the Eurozone focusing on a critical issue: inflation expectations. We uncover what financial markets can reveal about the of future inflation and also discuss evidence coming from investor and household surveys. We're thrilled to have Ricardo Reis join us today. Ricardo is the A.W.…
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The Return of the State in International Lending, with Christoph Trebesch (Kiel Institute)
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In today's episode we dive into the complex world of state-based international lending. Recent years have seen a resurgence in cross-border state lending, highlighted by the significant financial support Ukraine has received from Western countries and China's growing role as a global lender. Additionally, central bank swap lines have become a commo…
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Decoding the European Election Results, with Sophia Russack (CEPS)
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Join us today as we delve into the results of the European elections and their far-reaching consequences. We have the pleasure of speaking with Sophia Russack from the Centre of European Policy Studies (CEPS) in Brussels. Sophia is an expert in European politics and policy making, making her the perfect guest to shed light on the European election …
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The ECB has cut rates by 0.25% in its June meeting for the first time in many years. This happened despite forecasts of inflation having been revised slightly upwards. We review the reasoning behing this decision and the outlook for rates going forward.By Klaus Adam and Dirk Schumacher
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Episode 140: CSFI The ESG Gap in Trade Finance
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24:10
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The global economy needs to transition to net zero and trade finance should be a powerful lever in making that happen. But the development and adoption of ESG standards in trade finance has been slow. So, what’s behind the delay? Technology? Data? Product-market fit mismatch? The challenge of getting global co-operation? This podcast is led by Hele…
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Europe's Single Market Under Stress – with Roman Arjona (European Commission)
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Join us for an insightful discussion with Roman Arjona, Chief Economist at the European Commission’s Directorate-General for Internal Market, Industry, Entrepreneurship and SMEs. We'll delve into the current state and future of Europe's Single Market, exploring how it compares to the US and the challenges it faces in a changing global trade landsca…
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Episode 139: Sustainable finance map in APAC
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In this episode of Unlocking Banking in Asia, host Sara Mabelis, Country Manager, LIBF APAC, was joined by Kristina Anguelova, Senior Advisor & Consultant for Sustainable Finance to WWF, to breakdown the current ecosystem of sustainable finance in the APAC region.
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Join us as we discuss the outlook for ECB policy rates for the upcoming June policy meeting and thereafter. We put perspective on recent Euro Area growth numbers, consumer spending dynamics, and the inflation outlook. While a June rate cut looks likely, uncertainty about policy rates beyond June appears substantial. Currently available data suggest…
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Fiscal Policy Challenges in Germany - with Thiess Buettner
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Join our interesting discussion with Prof. Thiess Buettner, Chairman of the Independent Advisory Board of the German Stability Council, about fiscal policy challenges in Germany.By Klaus Adam and Dirk Schumacher
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Risks of a High Debt and High Interest Rate World - with Vitor Gaspar (IMF)
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Countries across Europe and the United States have witnessed a significant surge in government debt and interest rates in the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic. Join us as we engage in a conversation with Vítor Gaspar, Director of the IMF's Fiscal Affairs Department, about possible stability risks confronting government finances and the need to ma…
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The Neutral Interest Rate: A Moving Target
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18:31
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The neutral rate is relevant for understaning the stance of monetary policy and for the fiscal outlook, as it determines the financing conditions for government debt. We explain how the neutral rate is defined, discuss its economic determinants and provide estimates of how it has changed since the pre-pandemic period. Increased government debt supp…
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We review the fiscal position of France, Germany, Italy and Spain, discuss the need for consolidation and how it could be implemented with minimal harm to output.By Klaus Adam and Dirk Schumacher
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CC: British Free Speech Under Threat, Russia Doomed @RobinHorsfall
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29:49
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Former paratrooper and SAS operative joins CONSTABLE CONFIDENTIAL for a second interview. This time we discuss the new hate crime laws in Scotland and the threat they might be to free speech, plus Russia's future after the Ukraine war is over. And we get some special insights into the title of one of Horsfall's books Fighting Scared. Learn more abo…
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Provided wage growth moderates and inflation develops as expected, the ECB will start cutting interest rates in June. We discuss the uncertainties around this outlook and recent headwinds on the inflation front.By Klaus Adam and Dirk Schumacher
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CC: Economic Malaise In Scotland Plus JK Rowling Speaks Out On New Hate Law @RealConstable
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Entrepreneur and company director Alan Quinn joins us today for an update on Scotland's economic, social, and legal malaise. Notably, we touch on the new hate crime laws in Scotland, which can mean a prison stay of up to seven years in prison. Author JK Rowling has already asked the police to arrest her after she described several transgender women…
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CC: London The Most Antisemitic City in the World, Says Israel Politician @BenWeinthal @RealConstable
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Ben Weinthal, contributor for The Jerusalem Post, Iran International, and other fine publications, joins to discuss the rise of London as the world capital of Antisemitism, plus the continued calls for Germany to shutter Iran's embassy in Berlin following terror attacks linked to Tehran. Read Ben's story on London and antisemitism here or here: htt…
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CC: Not All Royals Are Like Harry and Megan, Says @LeescoLee3
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Lee Cohen, an expert on the British royals and the UK-US relationship, makes his debut on Constable Confidential. We discuss the contrast between how Prince Edward and his wife Sophie behave versus Prince Harry and Megan. Plus, we look deeper at the anti-UK sentiment from the White House. Read more of Cohen's thoughts on the royals here or here: ht…
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The EU’s Disastrous Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), with Harald Fadinger
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We discuss with Prof. Harald Fadinger (University of Mannheim) how the EU taxes the carbon content of imported goods via its Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). We critically review the effectivenes of CBAM to prevent "carbon leakage", i.e., the international reallocation of production to locations with low carbon prices, and its effect on t…
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CC: UK Tax payers Can Soon Buy Shares In Bank that Lost Its Soul @RealConstable @Ian_Fraser
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Ian Fraser, author of "Shredded: Inside RBS, The Bank That Broke Britain," joins us for his CONSTABLE CONFIDENTIAL debut. We discuss what Fraser describes as a culture that lost its soul and never got it back, is soon to be sold back to the UK public after being bailed out by the British taxpayer. Fraser explains the bizarre logic behind this news …
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CC: Anti-semitism Hits Record Highs Around the World @BenWeinthal @RealConstable
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Distinguished Middle East analyst Ben Weinthal joins us again from Jerusalem, where he writes for Fox News Digital, the Jerusalem Post, and the Middle East Forum. This week, we discuss the record-breaking levels of antisemitism around the world, plus the efforts of the U.S. administration to release frozen money to Iran while at the same time sendi…
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Overcoming Weak Growth in Germany, with Veronika Grimm
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We discuss with Veronika Grimm (German Council of Economic Experts) about lifting Germany's long-run growth potential. We focus on measures that increase labor supply, human capital formation and the role of long-run electricity prices.By Klaus Adam and Dirk Schumacher
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CC: Scottish Local Governments Make Economic War on Workers @RealConstable
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Glasgow-based entrepreneur and businessman Alan Quinn joins us for this episode of CONSTABLE CONFIDENTIAL to discuss the latest efforts by local government to impose more living costs on already cash-strapped people. Notably, this involves ultra-high car parking charges in the Scottish capital, Edinburgh, and Scotland's largest city, Glasgow. We al…
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The @ecb is getting close to cutting interest rates: it signaled following it March 7 Governing Council Meeting its readiness to start cutting rates in June, if everything goes according to plan.By Klaus Adam and Dirk Schumacher
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Productivity Developments in France, with Alain Durré (France Stratégie)
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We talk about recent trends and future challenges for productivity growth in the French economy. Our guest, Alain Durré, is Head of the Macroeconomics and Europe Division at the Bureau of the French Prime Minister and Rapporteur Général of the French National Productivity Board.By Klaus Adam and Dirk Schumacher
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How Much of the Decline in Inflation Is Due to ECB Policy?
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Euro Area inflation fell like a rock: from the peak of 10.6%, reached in October 2022, it dropped to levels below 3% a year later. We analyze how much of this decline can be attributed to policy tightening by the ECB. We find that the direct effect of ECB policy is likely small. ECB policy may have had important indirect effecta via anchoring infla…
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Optimal Government Debt Dynamics: Lessons from the Literature
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We present the main academic insights about how government debt should evolve over time, if the government seeks to maximize social welfare. We discuss (i) how to deal with positive/negative expenditure surprises, (ii) how refinancing risk, due to interest rate risk, impacts optimal government debt dynamics, and (iii) the optimal long-run level of …
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Critical Minerals for Europe: A Conversation With Bernard Dahdah
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We talk with Bernard Dadah (Head of Commodity Research, Natixis) about critical minerals. What are these? How big of market do they have? Who mines and refines them? What can the EU's Critical Raw Materials Act (CRMA) achieve?By Klaus Adam and Dirk Schumacher
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Macroeconomic Forecasting at the ECB, with Oscar Arce (Director General Economics)
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We discuss with the ECB's Director General for Economics Oscar Arce about the Euro Area's macroeconomic outlook, the ECB's past forecast errors, the way forecasts are produced at the ECB and the difficulties associated with producing macroeconomic projections. A true tour de force through the topic!By Klaus Adam and Dirk Schumacher
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Episode 138: Job interviews – top tips on how to prepare for that dream job
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Most of us have to undertake job interviews at some point in our lives. In this podcast our Director of PR, Heather Tilston, talks to Lewis Byford, from Antony George Recruitment, about how to prepare for interviews,the different types of interviews you may face and what to do if you don’t get the role. You can download some free interview tips and…
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We review the ECB's assessement of the economic situation & the outlook for policy rates going forward.By Klaus Adam and Dirk Schumacher
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Episode 134: Careers in financial planning – the opportunities, how to get on and how to develop your teams
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22:32
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Why might you want to consider a career in financial planning or advice, what are the career opportunities, how do you stand out as a candidate, how do you progress and what’s the outlook for the market in these complex times? Lewis Byford, from Antony George Recruitment discusses all ofthis with our Director of PR, Heather Tilston – and talks abou…
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We take stock of Germany's recent underperformance relative to its European peers and analyze its sources. We identify (real) household income dynamics as one of the main drivers.By Klaus Adam and Dirk Schumacher
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Episode 137: Journey to the top: banking leadership wisdom with Broderick C Santos
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42:43
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Join us for an insightful podcast featuring Broderick C Santos, Division Head at East West Bank Banking Corporation, and Sara Mabelis, Country Manager, LIBF APAC. Explore Broderick's 19-year banking journey, uncovering key milestones and challenges that shaped his unique leadership style. Hear all about his passion for financial inclusion and the w…
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CC: It's Getting Worse: Iran Makes War on Pakistan and Iraq @Vahid_Beheshti
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Iranian-born British citizen and political activist Vahid Beheshti joins us from London outside the Foreign Office. He explains the latest on the conflict in the Middle East, notably the two attacks on Pakistan and Iraq, and what that means for the region. We also discuss the urgent need for the United Kingdom to remove all its diplomatic corps fro…
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CC: How Much Has California Overspent? It's a mystery @JCBliss @RealConstable
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20:47
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California’s government can’t agree on how much it has overspent: $68 billion, $38 billion, or $100 billion. What’s the difference? It's only money. On top of that, the California Democrats want to introduce a wealth tax. What could possibly go wrong? We have that and more. Joining us from Orange County, California, is Jeff Bliss, a senior correspo…
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Episode 136: Exam and interview nerves – why you should take them seriously and how to seek help
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More than nine out of ten people in the UK have experienced exam nerves at school or university and in stressful situationssuch as job interviews, according to a new study by LIBF. However most don’t seek help – despite many experiencing far-reaching negative impacts for their lives. LIBF’s Director of Communications, Heather Tilston, discusses how…
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2024's Biggest Risks to the West: The U.S. Election and the Ukraine-Russia War @RobinHorsfall
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Former paratrooper and SAS soldier Robin Horsfall makes his debut on Constable Confidential. Among other gallantry, he was one of the team that rescued hostages from the Iranian Embassy in London in 1980. For the last two years, Horsfall has chronicled the Russia-Ukraine war and recently published a book on the conflict titled "Slava Ukraine Who Da…
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Is Scotland on an Economic Train Ride to Socialism? @RealConstable
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Alan Quinn, a long-standing Glasgow-based entrepreneur, weighs in on Scotland's ruling Scottish National Party and the economic policies they are pursuing. Specifically, he targets the lack of private sector experience by leading SNP figures and the idiocy of rent control, plus much more. Photo credit: Gus Pasquarella, Public domain, via Wikimedia …
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Flash Back: Constable and Batchelor Play Scrooge and Marley @RealConstable
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Here's a flashback to 2008, in which John Batchelor and I play Scrooge and Marley to tell the story of mega-conman Bernie Madoff who was charged with fraud in 2008 after running a $65 billion Ponzi scheme. Photo credit: Internet Archive Book Images, No restrictions, via Wikimedia Commons Photo description: From a 1900 illustrated edition of A Chris…
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Inside the Hamas Tunnels and the Attacks on Merchant Shipping in the Red Sea @BenWeinthal
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23:44
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Middle East Forum contributor and intrepid correspondent Ben Weinthal joins us from Jerusalem to discuss his recent tour of the Hamas-built tunnels in Gaza, plus details of the Iranian-backed Houthi rebel attack on merchant shipping in the Red Sea and the case of a professor suspended at Oberlin College with alleged Iranian ties. Photo description:…
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We review and critically discuss the decisions taken by the ECB after the suprisingly benign November inflation numbers.By Klaus Adam and Dirk Schumacher
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Episode 135: Getting under the skin of the CSFI Insurance Banana Skins survey
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Hear from the team behind the 9th edition of the CSFIInsurance Banana Skins – an industry barometer on key risks facing banking and insurance professionals over the next 2-3 years. Joining us from PwC are Andy Moore, Partner - Lloyd’s and London Market Leader and Alex Juniper, Director, Insurance Risk & Regulation, as well as the CSFI research tea…
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Edinburgh City Government Takes A Black-eye from Scotland's Courts @FionaCampbell74 @RealConstable @bellacaledonia
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This week, Fiona Campbell, CEO of the Association of Scotland's Self-Caterers, joins us to explain how the courts slammed Edinburgh City's local government for introducing unlawful rental rules Stories on legal ruling https://www.lawscot.org.uk/news-and-events/legal-news/edinburgh-s-short-term-lets-policy-still-unlawful/ Photo credit: Jacques Callo…
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California's Epic Financial Mess @JCBliss @RealConstable
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Joining us for his CC debut is Jeff Bliss; senior correspondent at California Flow Magazine and a regular contributor on John Batchelor's CBS show Eye on the World. He explains how California has gotten into a financial mess despite once being the jewel in the crown. https://www.npr.org/2023/12/08/1218260520/california-budget-deficit-analysis#:~:te…
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The Inspiring tale of Iranian-Born British Activist @Vahid_Beheshti
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Iranian-born British activist Vahid Behesti has a tale-and-a-half to tell about how he's been jawboning the British government to ban the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps. He sees the group as a threat to the UK and the West, And he went as far as to go on a hunger strike, had a Ftawah placed on him, and was threatened with having his head cut off…
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How Should Monetary Policy Deal With Uncertainty?
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We discuss how various forms of uncertainty affect the conduct of optimal monetary policy. We provide a summary of key insights from the academic literature, some of which are quite surprising. We explain how to make sense of them. We make reference to the following academic papers: Indicator variables for optimal policy, LEO Svensson, M Woodford -…
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Israel's Ambassador to the UN Slams George Soros @BenWeinthal
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Ben Weinthal joins us from Jerusalem to discuss the latest news on the ongoing war between Hamas and Israel, plus news of a murder after an extremist attack in Paris. Ben's story on Soros. https://www.foxnews.com/world/israels-un-ambassador-slams-soros-donations-pro-hamas-groups-seeking-destruction-jewish-state.amp Photo description: Israel Defense…
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This week we look back at the legacy of the late investing guru Charlie Munger, who worked alongside the more famous Warren Buffett for much of his career. We're joined by Christopher Pavese, president & chief investment officer at Broyhill Asset Management in Charlotte North Carolina who knows the ins and outs of Wall Street https://www.cnbc.com/2…
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