Donald Trump achieved a decisive victory in the US election. Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst talks to Michael Owen, Head of Global Client Desk EMEA, about the implications for the USD from a second Trump presidency. Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)By MUFG EMEA

Donald Trump has won the White House and Republicans have won a larger-than-expected majority in the Senate. The outlook for the House is still unclear but leans toward a very narrow Republican majority and therefore a Republican sweep. This outcome is set to have significant reverberations on a plethora of ESG dimensions. In this week’s podcast, E…

Lloyd Chan, Senior Currency Analyst at MUFG Global Markets Research Asia, speaks this week about the potential growth, monetary policy, and FX implications on ASEAN from a Harris election victory and a Trump election victory. Lloyd also highlights which ASEAN economies and currencies would underperform in an adverse Trump scenario, where 60% US tar…

Following the release of the US jobs report Derek Halpenny, Head of Research, Global Markets EMEA & International Securities, discusses with Simon Mayes, Head of UK, Ireland & Swiss Corporate FX Sales about the potential implications ahead of the FOMC next week. Derek also outlines the FX implications on a Harris election victory and a Trump electi…

The US presidential election will take place on 5 November and polls indicate a tight race. In this week’s podcast, Ehsan Khoman, Head of Research – Commodities, ESG and Emerging Markets (EMEA), examines the potential impacts on clean energy post US elections.By MUFG EMEA

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Abdul-Ahad Lockhart, Currency Analyst, discuss why the JPY has weakened sharply this month. How are the political risks impacting JPY performance? Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)By MUFG EMEA

Every two years, global leaders gather to negotiate agreements to preserve biodiversity and stop the destruction of nature. This week, representatives of 196 countries are gathering in Cali, Colombia, for the 16th UN Conference of the Parties summit, commonly known as COP16, which runs from 21 October through to 1 November. In this week’s podcast, …

Michael Wan, Senior Currency Analyst with MUFG Global Markets Research Asia, and Japinder Singh, Vice President Treasury Sales, MUFG India discuss key driving factors behind RBI monetary policy decision and INR in the context of US Elections and what that could mean for the Dollar and Fed policy. (Please see link to Disclaimer: Disclaimer - MUFG Re…

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Reza Nasehi, Vice President of the Japanese Client Sales Group for EMEA in London, discuss what has been driving the strong USD rebound this month and if the USD continue to strengthen ahead of the US election? Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)By MUFG EMEA

The former ECB President and Italian PM, Mario Draghi, recently presented a study he has conducted on behalf of the European Commission, on how to strengthen Europe's competitiveness and close the productivity gap with the US and China. Electrification appears at the core of the plan with half of the incremental investments suggested by the plan (~…

USD/JPY continues it's advance toward the 150-level and this week Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA and International Securities talks to Simon Mayes, Head of UK, Ireland and Switzerland Corporate Sales about the prospects for USD/JPY in the context of a 60bp jump in 2yr US yields, the upcoming election in both Japan and the US, …

At the COP28 UN Climate Change Conference in December 2023, governments agreed to work together to triple the world’s installed renewable energy capacity by 2030. According to the latest IEA assessment, renewables are set to generate nearly half of global electricity by the end of the decade, but the current growth trajectory is not fully in line w…

This week George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, provides an update to our latest house views on the Fed and US rates forecasts post the solid September NFP jobs report. Even though the team have doubts on the overall quality of the recent NFP reading and that one number does not make a trend. At face value it was a strong report and i…

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst and Seiko, Kataoka-Fisher, Director from Japanese Customer Sales for EMEA in London, discuss why the USD has staged a strong rebound over the past week. Recent developments add to their caution in forecasting further USD downside ahead of the US election. Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)…

The conversations during Climate Week in New York, between 22-29 September, had a tone of realism that acknowledged the shortfall in political ambition to address climate change – both in government policies and finance. These deliberations are critical building blocks towards the next major destination for international sustainability discussions …

Following the LDP leadership election in Japan today Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities talks to Seiko Kataoka-Fisher, Head of Japanese Client FX Sales about what the implications for BoJ monetary policy and the yen after the victory for Shigeru Ishiba. Derek also looks ahead to next week’s US employment…

Published on 9 September, the Draghi Report on “the future of European competitiveness” is a clarion call that addresses how the EU is trailing the US and China over the past two decades. To avoid what former ECB President, Mario Draghi, calls a “slow agony” the report calls for EUR750-800bn of investment per annum (~5% of GDP) to focus on three ar…

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Simon Mayes, Head of UK, Ireland and Switzerland, Corporate Sales, discuss the FX market implications from this week’s central bank policy updates. Will the USD continue to weaken after the Fed delivers a larger 50bps rate cut? Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)…

On the back of a recently published FOMC preview report, this week George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, walks us through what to expect at the September FOMC meeting and the rationale for why our house view is calling for the first cut to be 50bps. George also explores how this easing cycle may progress. In George’s view, this is a h…

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Reza Nasehi, Vice President of the Japanese Client Sales Group for EMEA in London, discuss how the Fed’s decision to begin cutting rates is likely to impact the USD in the week ahead. Will the Fed play catch up with other major central banks and cut rates more quickly? Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)…

The US economy is en route towards a soft landing. Inflation is trending towards the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) 2% inflation target, and growth is cooling (not collapsing). The cyclical context matters as commodities enjoy positive returns during a “good” cutting cycle (growth firm, declining inflation), and vice versa, suffer negative returns during …

There has been no shortage of the figures attesting to the cosmic transformation of the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) – the largest clean energy and climate legislation in US history since its passage in August 2022. Yet, two years on the IRA is at a critical juncture with the impending US elections potentially altering the contours of what has …

As the summer lull for the financial markets comes to an end, Derek Halpenny Head of Research Global markets EMEA & International Securities talks to Jack Greenslade in Corporate FX Sales about what lies ahead for the major currencies following some key developments in August and ahead of key central bank meetings. Are the financial markets correct…

US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Powell’s remarks at the Jackson Hole symposium in August left no room for ambiguity on the direction for policy rates, with the Fed set to deliver the first non-recessionary interest rate cut on 18 September. From this, whilst it is acknowledged that an easing in interest rates will support sustainability-centric coun…

This week George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, reviews the last major macro event that happened this past Friday, the Fed’s Jackson hole symposium. Specifically chair Powell’s opening speech acknowledged that the labor market cooling is unmistakably happening now (and in reality has been in our view for many quarters) and thus the Fe…

Lloyd Chan, Senior Currency Analyst at MUFG Global Markets Research Asia, speaks this week on Indonesia's monetary policy, fiscal policy, and the outlook for the Indonesian Rupiah, following Bank Indonesia's policy meeting and the annual Jackson Hole symposium last week. (Please see link to Disclaimer: Disclaimer - MUFG Research)…

This week, Derek Halpenny Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities discusses with Seiko Kataoka-Fisher Head of JC FX Sales, the initial market reaction to the Jackson Hole speech by Fed Chair Powell. The speech highlighted a new Fed focus on downside labour market risks. After this week’s Democratic National Convention in Chi…

Lin Li, Head of Global Markets Research Asia, discusses USD/CNY pair’s recent movement and the forecast for next 12 months, the status of Chinese economy, and the potential policy support. (Please see link to Disclaimer: Disclaimer - MUFG Research)By MUFG EMEA

The question of when markets will start “pricing in” climate volatility and the energy transition is a recurring theme amongst monetary policymakers and the sustainability community. In this week’s podcast, Ehsan Khoman, Head of Research – Commodities, ESG and Emerging Markets (EMEA), delves into a recent European Central Bank (ECB) report which su…

This week George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, puts into context how risk market preferences and a buy the dip mentality has likely led to the bounce from oversold conditions that were present at the early start of August around the adjustments of positioning. George remains cautious and expects more episodic vol events over the end …

This week has seen a notable rebound in USD/JPY as risk appetite improves. Derek Halpenny, Head OF Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities talks to Seiko Kataoka-Fisher, Head of JC FX Sales about the revival of yen selling and whether yen carry can return on a sustainable basis. Derek also looks ahead to next week with the Jackson H…

It has been another volatile week for financial markets. Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst talks to Seiko Kataoka-Fisher, Head of Japanese Client FX Sales about what has been driving the FX market over the past week after USD/JPY briefly fell back below the 142.00-level. What are the key events to watch out for the week ahead? Disclaimer: www.mu…

Michael Wan, Senior Currency Analyst with MUFG Global Markets Research Asia, and Japinder Singh, Vice President Treasury Sales, MUFG India discuss key driving factors behind the weakness in INR in the context of significant global market volatility, and also expectations for RBI policy later this week. (Please see link to Disclaimer: Disclaimer - M…

The Fed decided to leave rates on hold this week but was it a policy mistake? Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst talks to Michael Owen, Head of Global Client Desk EMEA, about the latest policy updates from the Fed and BoJ and their impact on the FX market. Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)By MUFG EMEA

The limited return on investments (RoI) - rather than the access to capital is increasingly being cited as a leading barrier to scaling the energy transition. To put this into perspective, Ehsan Khoman, Head of Research: Commodities, ESG and Emerging Markets (EMEA), delves into MUFG’s latest ESG thought leadership report, titled, “Energy transition…

This week George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, goes over the macro-olympiad of events from central banks to key data releases and concludes by saying that this week could set the tone for the balance of the summer for markets. In terms of the July FOMC meeting, we believe the Fed will need to converge with market expectations in rega…

Michael Wan, Senior Currency Analyst with MUFG Global Markets Research Asia, and Karina Ferreras (Kia), Vice President Treasury Sales, MUFG Philippines discuss key driving factors behind the underperformance of the Philippines Peso, the path for BSP policy, and also the risks to watch out for. (Please see link to Disclaimer: Disclaimer - MUFG Resea…

The US dollar is closing out this week weaker with a heavy schedule of risk events next week. USD/JPY corrected 10 big figures lower high-to-low in July to date and hence there will be a lot of focus on the BoJ policy decision next week. That will be followed by the FOMC meeting later on Wednesday while the BoE meets on Thursday. The week ends with…

Lin Li, Head of Global Markets Research Asia, discussed the main takeaways from the Third Plenum of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, the direction of property sector reform and the PBoC's surprise policy rates cut on 22 July. (Please see link to Disclaimer: Disclaimer - MUFG Research)…

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Seiko Kataoka-Fisher, Director from Japanese Customer Sales for EMEA in London, discuss why the JPY has been strengthened sharply over the past week and whether it is likely to extend further. Will the BoC follow the ECB’s lead and leave rates on hold next week? To hear more, click the image below. Disclaim…

Steel may exist as a critical product in today’s global economy, but it’s also a significant source of carbon emissions. What kind of a role could green steel play in the path towards net zero? In this week’s podcast, Ehsan Khoman, Head of Research – Commodities, ESG and Emerging Markets (EMEA), delves into this theme, wherein he discusses why gree…

This week George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, reviews recent market, macro and political events in the US. George and team have been focused on the lags of monetary policy, the lags in how long its been taking for sticky inflation to unwind and the data discrepancies in the true health of the US labor market. The latest CPI report s…

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Jack Greenslade from the Global Customer Marketing Group, discuss the impact from the FX market from slowing US inflation. Has a turning point been reached for USD/JPY? Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)By MUFG EMEA

This week George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, reviews a recent special topic from the latest Macro2Markets Monthly report, where the team has found that the last few years of higher nominal activity (boosted by higher prices given elevated inflation levels) has made the economy, company earnings, and market performance look better t…

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Simon Mayes, Head of UK, Ireland and Switzerland, Corporate Sales, discuss the FX market implications from the UK and French elections. Will the USD continue to weaken in the week ahead following the release of the latest NFP report? Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)…

As ESG’s contours and penetration increased in H1 2024, so too did the decibels of debate. In this week’s podcast, Ehsan Khoman, Head of Research – Commodities, ESG and Emerging Markets (EMEA), contextualises why he believes the louder deliberations and pockets of pushback are still indicative of ESG’s burgeoning relevance and a natural (and necess…

As we come to the mid-point of the year Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities talks to Seiko Kataoka-Fisher, Head of JC FX Sales about MUFG’s forecasts and where the biggest divergences have been relative to expectations at the start of the year. Derek also talks through the scenarios for the French parliam…

Climate negotiators met at their intersessional climate talks, known as SB60 (the 60th meeting of the Subsidiary Bodies), at Bonn, Germany, between 3-13 June. The deliberations were supposed to lay the foundations for progress to be made at COP29 in Baku (Azerbaijan) between 11 November – 22 November. Yet, they also highlighted the many gaps that s…

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Jack Greenslade from the Global Customer Marketing Group, discuss the latest central bank policy updates in Europe. Will the policy updates alter European currency performance ahead of the upcoming French elections?By MUFG EMEA

Notwithstanding the pivot to the right in France, Italy and Germany during parliamentary elections earlier this month, the EU Green Deal – the continent’s flagship framework in making Europe climate neutral by 2050, is alive and well (in aggregate). However, Ehsan Khoman, Head of Research – Commodities, ESG and Emerging Markets (EMEA), believes tha…