The 2024 ADPI/ABI Annual Conference starts next week and will likely move the dairy markets. What does Jacoby predict for dairy production and demand for 2024? Join Ted Jacoby III and our guests Jacob Menge, Vice President of Risk Management and Trade Strategy; Joshua White, Vice President of Dairy Ingredients; Diego Carvallo, Director of Dry Dairy…

This is the first podcast episode in our quarterly Understanding Export series. Today’s special guest is Fernando Anaya, Director General at DILAC. DILAC offers powdered dairy products and has a 27-year track record within the Mexican dairy industry. Our Jacoby team includes Ted Jacoby, President; Yara Morales, Director of Sales for Mexico and Lati…

Este es el primer episodio de nuestro serie trimestral Entendiendo Exportaciones. El invitado especial de hoy es Fernando Anaya, Director General en DILAC. DILAC ofrece productos lácteos en polvo y tiene un historial de 27 años dentro de la industria láctea mexicana. Nuestro equipo de Jacoby incluye a Ted Jacoby, Presidente; Yara Morales, Directora…

The T.C. Jacoby team got together to talk about a two-part phenomenon that we’re expecting to wrinkle the dairy markets over the course of the next year or two. 2023 through ’25, plant capacity expansions total 9% of all milk production. But heifers are short, milk production was flat in 2023 and we expect it to be flat (or close to it) in 2024. So…

T3, Josh and Tristan sat down with Jeroen Lemmens, who joined Cefetra Dairy in Singapore after spending multiple years trading dairy in China. We’d spent months looking for the right person to talk to about China’s dairy buying habits past, present and future. The conversation gave some color to the disappearance of Chinese demand for American milk…

Industry discussion surrounds a docket’s worth of changes to the Federal Milk Marketing Orders (FMMO), and we feel like it’s high time that we weighed in. The USDA hearing on pricing formulas reconvened November 27, and the Jacoby team can’t help but feel that much of the hearings will amount to wasted or misplaced effort. On this episode of The Mi…

Our team is (mostly) bearish right now. We’re seeing signs that recent Class III price rises aren’t supported by demand, and the lack of Asian demand for powders continues. In the August episode of The Milk Check, we discuss a recent LinkedIn post Ted made and whether there’s any strong case against bearishness when looking at dairy prices. Butter …

On June 12, we brought a group together to share perspectives on the dairy markets, along with thoughts on what we might expect moving forward. And there wasn’t a strong consensus. Josh thinks supply-side factors point to a relatively quick supply-side response playing out over months that produces some price upticks to offer some cover in the shor…

On Episode 57 of The Milk Check, Tara Vander Dussen joins us to talk about sustainable agriculture. She is an environmental scientist and fifth-generation dairy farmer known online as the New Mexico Milkmaid. We celebrate some of the regenerative agricultural practices that people often take for granted, and Tara walks us through some of progress s…

You don’t need technical analysis to tell you that dairy prices are low right now. But stocks are still high, which suggests demand is weak. The questions are: What gives? And when? In this episode of The Milk Check, we talk through the feeling that our current bearishness points to a strong price rebound later in 2022 or early 2023. But not before…

The USDA’s milk production report for December surprised us and sparked some interesting discussion in a recent mass balance and charting meeting. We thought it made sense to pull back the curtain and share some of that discussion on the podcast.What does the USDA revision of cow numbers tell us? Should we worry about falling Texas cow numbers with…

T3 and Ted Jr. got together to talk next year’s milk pricing, and they made pretty quick work of the topic. Both have bearish outlooks to start the year. After Q1, their predictions start to diverge.How far down will milk prices go? Will they jump back up above $20 next year? When? How will the market respond to recession? The duo works through Cla…

Geoff Vanden Heuvel of Milk Producers Council and Sarina Sharp of Ag Business Solutions and Daily Dairy Report joins T3, Gus and Ted Jr. for a discussion on California water today and moving forward.Geoff enlightens the group on localized production cost challenges and shares some anecdotes about farmers dealing with expensive feed. Sarina and Gus …

With August’s milk production report in mind, the trading team gathered for another monthly mass balance and charting meeting. This month, though, we were blessed by two special guests: Steve Spencer and Vuko Karov from Freshagenda.Don kicked the meeting off by modeling domestic milk production and mass balance expectations for the rest of the year…

With the T.C. Jacoby & Co. trading team in the office for quarterly strategy huddles, we decided to record a special Q&A discussion for this month’s podcast episode. Each trader had the opportunity to ask a question of another trader, in order to gain some insight into expectations for the rest of 2022.Their discussions, with some questions sent in…

A special guest joins this mostly macro-level episode of The Milk Check. Dr. Andrew Novakovic compares today’s inflation with U.S. inflation eras past, and the group examines evidence toward the unlikelihood of another Great Recession as well as downward pressure holding back a forceful economic rebound.Both Ted Jr. and T3 still see some upside in …

On this remarkably bullish episode of The Milk Check, the Teds bring in T.C. Jacoby & Co’s fluid milk team to talk about the market from their perspective.Gus Jacoby, president of fluid dairy ingredients and dairy support, leads the discussion with help from milk marketing manager Greg Scheer and fluid sales manager Jared Miklasz.Discussion lingere…

On this two-part edition of The Milk Check, the Jacoby team lets listeners in on a monthly mass balance and charting meeting. The meeting splits neatly into two episodes, one led by Global Strategy Director Don Street and the other led by Head of Risk Management and Trading Strategy Jacob Menge.In part one, we evaluated milk production data and pre…