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Canso provides portfolio management services to Canadian institutional and private investors, specializing in fundamental research and security selection. These publications have been prepared by Canso Investment Counsel Ltd. and have been prepared solely for information purposes. Information in these publications is not intended to constitute legal, tax, securities or investment advice and is made available on an “as is” basis. Information in these presentations is subject to change without ...
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Listen to the July 2024 Corporate Bond Newsletter
16:46
16:46
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We are starting to see more and more credit opportunities emerging. Even though default rates remain relatively low, the increase in distressed transactions points to increasing stress among highly levered companies as interest rates remain higher for longer.By Canso Investment Counsel Ltd.
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"What’s Going On” was the plaintive refrain and title of Marvin Gaye’s 1971 hit song about the controversial Vietnam War and the resulting societal and political upset in the United States. His song of confusion and disappointment seems as relevant to us today. We look with trepidation on the political and social tumult around the world and wonder …
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Listen to the April 2024 Corporate Bond Newsletter
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Like George W. Bush standing on the deck of the USS Abraham Lincoln in May 2003, the market appears to have hoisted the “Mission Accomplished” banner on this monetary tightening cycle. Risk premiums have dropped, borrowers have renewed access to capital and the percentage of economists predicting a recession has dropped considerably from the “100%”…
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The so-called experts who called for dismal markets in 2023 were nowhere to be found in the 2024 New Year prognostications. Happy days were here again, and nobody wanted to spoil the fortunes from soaring markets that had been handed to investors by saying anything remotely negative this time around.…
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Listen to the January 2024 Corporate Bond Newsletter
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Corporate bond markets raced higher in the fourth quarter as inflation continued to decline, labour market strength showed signs of moderating and Federal Reserve policymakers signaled their rate hiking efforts may be coming to an end.By Canso Investment Counsel Ltd.
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Listen to the January 2024 Market Observer
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Generations of finance students have been taught Efficient Markets theory, but we have always begged to differ. What happened in 2023 to the financial markets and the economy should give anyone pause about how efficient the financial markets really are.By Canso Investment Counsel Ltd.
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Listen to the October 2023 Corporate Bond Newsletter
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It was a cruel summer in the bond market as interest rates climbed swiftly higher. Yields across both Canadian and U.S. government curves jumped, hitting levels not seen since 2007.By Canso Investment Counsel Ltd.
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Listen to the October 2023 Market Observer
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The early 2023 “Will They, Won’t They” and “They Should” bond market consensus of lower interest rate prognostication morphed into a mid-year and more pleading “Why Won’t They??” lower interest rates. It has now grudgingly grown into a more accepting but fatalistic “They Probably Won’t” consensus.By Canso Investment Counsel Ltd.
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Listen to the July 2023 Corporate Bond Newsletter
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Canadians rejoiced the dramatic victory of Nick Taylor who became the first Canuck to win the Canadian Open since 1954. Meanwhile, Canadian bond investors are celebrating a victory of their own, with the return of positive real bond yields. Listen more in the July 2023 Corporate Bond NewsletterBy Canso Investment Counsel Ltd.
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Is 4% a better target than 2%? This debate should prove interesting. We have always said that more money is much more popular than less money.By Canso Investment Counsel Ltd.
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Have central bankers done enough to get inflation under control? We believe that monetary policy and the credit cycle are powerful forces, but we suspect that things on the inflation front will be a lot more difficult than the fashionable market crowd suspects.By Canso Investment Counsel Ltd.
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Listen to the April 2023 Corporate Bond Newsletter
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The year began with swift optimism. Equity markets quickstepped higher, while credit spreads swung tighter. Buyers lined up to purchase new bonds from both investment grade and non-investment grade issuers. In sequence, investors who were knocked down by one of the worst years of their careers bounced back up and danced.…
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We continue to see that inflation hopes are springing eternal in the world’s bond markets in the Spring of 2023. The bond market is moving manically between elation that nagging inflation has finally been vanquished, and fears that it has not. It depends on the day, the hour, or even the minute after an “important number” is released, but bond trad…
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Listen to the January 2023 Corporate Bond Newsletter
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The recent rise in Canadian bond market yields is something that bond investors have seldom seen in their professional lifetimes, and never for a sustained period. After hitting generational lows from 2010 to 2020 when central bankers became enamoured with ZIRP (Zero Interest Rate Policy) and QE (Quantitative Easing), there was nowhere to go but up…
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Listen to the December 2022 Market Observer
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After vanquishing the Evil Inflator and banishing him to the far regions of the Yield Universe over 40 years ago, the Interest Rate League has been called back into action! Listen more in the December Market Observer.By Canso Investment Counsel Ltd.
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Listen to the October 2022 Corporate Bond Newsletter
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Looking at the financial market returns for the third quarter and year-to-date 2022, there was no obvious place to hide as all asset classes suffered. The carnage in fixed income markets is the worst seen in most of our lifetimes.By Canso Investment Counsel Ltd.
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Listen to the September 2022 Position Report
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By Canso Investment Counsel Ltd.
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Listen to the July 2022 Corporate Bond Newsletter
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The first quarter financial market bruising exploded into full blown carnage by mid-year as second quarter returns pushed deeper into negative territory. Several markets recorded double digit losses, as investors fled the riskiest assets.By Canso Investment Counsel Ltd.
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Central banks have created far more money than necessary for actual economic activity and the result is the highest inflation in 40 years. Interest rates are up, and the financial markets have shuddered, shattered and fallen precipitously in price. Listen here in the July Market Observer.By Canso Investment Counsel Ltd.
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Listen to the April 2022 Corporate Bond Newsletter
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History books will show the official end of emergency monetary policy accommodation to offset the Covid-19 pandemic came on March 2nd and 16th when the BOC and the Fed raised overnight rates. In reality, the recalibration of bond markets started well beforehand, in response to inflation, and in anticipation of central bank action.…
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The global bond market is experiencing the violence of sharply rising yields. Loose fiscal policy and pandemic government income supports combined increasing demand with reduced supply. Prices are soaring to levels not seen in the over 40 years since the high inflation 1970s.By Canso Investment Counsel Ltd.
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