A podcast by venture capital firm Lux Capital on the opportunities and risks of science, technology, finance and the human condition. Hosted by Danny Crichton from our New York City studios.
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Austin's transformation into a global innovation powerhouse is at the heart of Austin Next. We explore insights into the region's evolution and the building of robust ecosystems. Additionally, we delve into the potential impact of emerging trends, technologies, and their convergence. Austin, as our real-world case study, helps us aspire to better comprehend the true nature of innovation.
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Riskgaming and Tech's Future Frontiers with Danny Crichton, Lux Capital
1:09:31
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From wargaming to Riskgaming, what can simulations and stories teach us about the future of technology and innovation? Danny Crichton, Head of Editorial and Risk Gaming at Lux Capital, brings his unique insights from his experience in both tech journalism and venture capital. What started as a conversation on the tech-media divide expanded to encom…
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The how and why of the most successful supply-chain attack in history
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This week, Hezbollah fighters in Lebanon were injured and killed by the thousands across two waves of attacks when their pagers and walkie-talkies exploded. Presumably orchestrated by Israel, it’s one of the most complex and successful supply-chain attacks in world history, and it has mesmerized the global espionage community. We wanted to go deepe…
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Welcome to The Orthogonal Bet, an ongoing mini-series that explores the unconventional ideas and delightful patterns that shape our world. Hosted by Samuel Arbesman. In this episode, Sam speaks with Eli Altman, the managing director of A Hundred Monkeys, a company that specializes in the art of naming. A Hundred Monkeys works wi…
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Artificial General Intelligence Modeled on the Human Mind with Peter Voss
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Are we overlooking the most powerful model of intelligence we have in our race to create smarter machines, the human mind? Peter Voss, CEO and Chief Scientist of Aigo.ai, coined the term "Artificial General Intelligence" (AGI) and brings decades of experience in AI research and development. We explore Peter's vision and challenge the current consen…
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AI is spiking chip design costs – can it solve them too?
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The old adage of “If you build it, they will come” might be translated into chip design better as, “You can’t build it, since they don’t exist.” The small but crucial profession of chip design used to be a quieter niche within the broader semiconductor market, with just a handful of companies hiring PhD grads. Now, with trillion-dollar companies li…
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The Orthogonal Bet: How to Navigate Complexity Within a Large Organization
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Welcome to The Orthogonal Bet, an ongoing mini-series that explores the unconventional ideas and delightful patterns that shape our world. Hosted by Samuel Arbesman. In this episode, Sam speaks with Alex Komoroske, a master of systems thinking. Alex is the CEO and co-founder of a startup building at the intersection of AI, priva…
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From Tel Aviv to Austin with Texas Venture Partners
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What connects the Startup Nation to the Lone Star State? We're witnessing a growing nexus that crosses tech, cultures, and economic verticals. To explore this emerging relationship, I'm joined by Tal Shmueli and Simone Ledeen from Texas Venture Partners. They're at the forefront of catalyzing this intersection between two innovative ecosystems. Epi…
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Silicon Valley’s secret industrial spy war
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Silicon Valley couldn’t be farther from the confines of Langley or Fort Meade, let alone Beijing or Moscow. Yet, the verdant foothills of suburban sprawl that encompass the Bay Area have played host to some of the most technically sophisticated espionage missions the world has ever seen. As the home of pivotal technologies from semiconductors to da…
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The Orthogonal Bet: Bio Trajectories and the Importance of Long-Term Thinking
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Welcome to The Orthogonal Bet, an ongoing mini-series that explores the unconventional ideas and delightful patterns that shape our world. Hosted by Samuel Arbesman. In this episode, Sam speaks with Adrian Tchaikovsky, the celebrated novelist of numerous science fiction and fantasy books, including his Children of Time series, Final A…
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How games, god(s) and chance transformed human decision-making
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Gaming has enveloped our world. A majority of Americans now gamble at least once every year, and popular video games like Fortnite and Roblox count hundreds of millions of global players. In social science, game theory and its descendants remain the mainstay for objectively analyzing human rationality, even as a gigaton of evidence shows the limits…
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The Orthogonal Bet: The Harsh Realities of the Soviet Space Program
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Welcome to The Orthogonal Bet, an ongoing mini-series that explores the unconventional ideas and delightful patterns that shape our world. Hosted by Samuel Arbesman. In this episode, Samuel Arbesman speaks with John Strausbaugh, a former editor of New York Press and the author of numerous history books. John’s latest work is the compellin…
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The Orthogonal Bet: Understanding Embodied Intelligence
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Welcome to The Orthogonal Bet, an ongoing mini-series that explores the unconventional ideas and delightful patterns that shape our world. Hosted by Samuel Arbesman. In this episode, Sam speaks with Michael Levin, a biologist and the Vannevar Bush Professor at Tufts University. Michael’s work encompasses how information is processed in biol…
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Radical Uncertainty, Rapid Learning and the Success Equation for Catching Up
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Global inequality has grown over the past two decades, concentrating an enormous amount of wealth and power on an elite number of individuals, cities, regions and nations all while stranding the vast masses to ignominy and penury. Yet, history is replete with examples of people and places that have caught up — and in some cases even surpassed — onc…
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Evolving Venture Capital for the AI and Data Era with Gopinath Sundaramurthy, Founder & Head of Data Science, Ensemble VC
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Is venture capital on the cusp of a data-driven revolution? Gopinath Sundaramurthy, Founder & Head of Data Science at Ensemble VC, believes AI and advanced analytics are reshaping how VCs identify and support promising startups. From transforming deal pipelines to finding diamonds in the rough around the globe, we explore what this new era will mea…
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The Orthogonal Bet: The Quest to Build the Fruitful Web
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Welcome to The Orthogonal Bet, an ongoing mini-series that explores the unconventional ideas and delightful patterns that shape our world. Hosted by Samuel Arbesman. In this episode, Sam speaks with Laurel Schwulst. Laurel operates within many roles: designer, artist, educator, and technologist. She explores—among other things—the intersectio…
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Industrial literacy and the fate of American progress
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It’s good and bad times in America. Inflation is down and wages are up in real terms, but there’s a rising challenge: how can we provide the housing, transportation, schooling, health care and amenities that Americans expect when prices for these social services have skyrocketed over the past three decades? Even when new technologies are capable of…
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Rekindling Humanity's Ambition Through Story with Devon Eriksen - Theft of Fire
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Can the stories we tell shape the future we build? Devon Eriksen, author of "Theft of Fire" and now Dragon Award finalist, argues that science fiction isn't just entertainment; it's a catalyst for innovation and human progress. Our narratives can be beautiful and optimistic, inspiring us to build, or ugly and pessimistic, causing us to stagnate. It…
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The Orthogonal Bet: : The Art of Cultivating Curiosity
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Welcome to The Orthogonal Bet, an ongoing mini-series that explores the unconventional ideas and delightful patterns that shape our world. Hosted by Samuel Arbesman. In this episode, Sam speaks with Eliot Peper. Eliot is a science fiction novelist and all-around delightful thinker. Eliot’s books are thrilling tales of the near future, exploring…
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Why engineers are using chaos to make computers more resilient
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The CrowdStrike meltdown on July 19th shut down the world with one faulty patch — proving once again the interconnected fragility of global IT systems. On Tuesday this week, the company released its Root Cause Analysis as both an explanation and a mea culpa, but the wider question remains: with so much of our lives dependent on silicon and electron…
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From Building 3D-Printed Houses to Funding Critical Tech with Evan Loomis, Partner at Overmatch Ventures
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Evan Loomis, partner at Overmatch Ventures and co-founder of ICON, exemplifies Austin's entrepreneurial spirit in tackling audacious challenges. From revolutionizing construction to investing in frontier technologies, Evan shares his journey through Austin's rapidly evolving tech landscape and why now is the moment for critical tech. We don't shy a…
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The Orthogonal Bet: Building a Fractal Combinatorial Trope Machine
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Welcome to the ongoing mini-series The Orthogonal Bet. Hosted by Samuel Arbesman, a Complexity Scientist, Author, and Scientist in Residence at Lux Capital. In this episode, he speaks with Hilary Mason, co-founder and CEO of Hidden Door, a startup creating a platform for interactive storytelling experiences within works of fiction. Hilary has als…
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How many trillions in damage would an invasion of Taiwan cost global GDP?
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When it comes to the so-called DC foreign policy “blob”, few scenarios have been more sketched out, analyzed and wargamed than a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan. President Xi Jinping’s calls for national rejuvenation coupled with Taiwan’s coalescing autonomous identity apart from the mainland is raising the stakes for both sides and the world …
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Connection and Innovation in the Austin Food Scene with Grace Chow Co-Founder & CEO of Lobos Hospitality
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Can a city’s food scene serve as a catalyst for connection, creativity, and innovation? Grace Chow, Co-Founder & CEO of Austin-based Lobos Hospitality, joins me to share her insights from food scenes across the US, and her in-the-trenches view from building three distinctive Austin restaurants: Toasty Badger, Manny's, and the Powder Room. Episode H…
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The Orthogonal Bet: Using Computational Biology to Understand How the Brain Works
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Welcome to the ongoing mini-series The Orthogonal Bet. Hosted by Samuel Arbesman, a Complexity Scientist, Author, and Scientist in Residence at Lux Capital. In this episode, Sam speaks with Amy Kuceyeski, a mathematician and biologist who is a professor at Cornell University in computational biology, statistics, and data science, as well as in ra…
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Evolved Technology: Why technology is counter-intuitively pushing us back to natural products in pharma development
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The history of pharmaceutical development has traditionally been one of exploration on the frontiers of life on Earth. From fungi to molds, we’ve sourced many of our most important drugs from some of the unlikeliest places, and it’s all due to evolution. Nature’s intense competition and selection forces has made it the ultimate developer of pharmac…
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The Orthogonal Bet: What the Microsoft Outage Reveals
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Welcome to the ongoing mini-series The Orthogonal Bet. Hosted by Samuel Arbesman, a Complexity Scientist, Author, and Scientist in Residence at Lux Capital. In this episode, Sam delves into the recent CrowdStrike/Microsoft outage, providing insights on how to understand this event through the lens of complexity science. The episode was inspired b…
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The Orthogonal Bet: The Quest to Find the Poetic Web
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Welcome to the ongoing mini-series The Orthogonal Bet. Hosted by Samuel Arbesman, a Complexity Scientist, Author, and Scientist in Residence at Lux Capital. In this episode, Sam speaks with Kristoffer Tjalve. Kristoffer is hard to categorize, and in the best possible way. However, if one had to provide a description, it could be said that he is a c…
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The media world has been rocked by artificial intelligence, labor strife, the creator economy, the decimation of business models and so much more. But sometimes it's not collapse and crisis that's the most interesting story, but rather just another day of a assiduously growing a platform. That's the story I want to talk about today on risk gaming, …
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Pattern Breakers with Mike Maples Jr., Founding Partner at Floodgate
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Promising startups often fail despite following best practices, while rule-breakers and those running through chaos can achieve massive success. Why? Mike Maples Jr, Founding Partner at Floodgate, tackles this paradox in his book "Pattern Breakers." We discuss his Inflection Theory, why some pivots work and others don't, unexpected inspirations lik…
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The Orthogonal Bet: What AI Can Learn from Human Cognition
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Hello and welcome to the ongoing miniseries The Orthogonal Bet Hosted by Samuel Arbesman, Complexity Scientist, Author, and Scientist in Residence at Lux Capital In this episode, Samuel speaks with Alice Albrecht, the founder and CEO of Recollect, a startup in the AI and tools for thought space. Alice, trained in cognitive neuroscience, has had a l…
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Startups Playing the International Game with Joe Merrill, Co-Founder and Partner Sputnik VC
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What do global trends affects on startups, the art of selling, startup accelerators, and the future lizard king all have in common? They are all just a few of the diverse and intersecting topics that I explore today with Joe Merrill, Co-Founder and Partner at Sputnik VC. Episode Highlights Sputnik ATX invests in pre-seed startups across various sec…
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Can we be optimistic about America’s future?
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If we had to rebuild American politics to be more positive, could we do it? And what would a positive or even optimistic politics look like? What would be its program, and how could we all be galvanized to join in a world and at a time when it seems as though every day brings another dampener to human enthusiasm? Those are just some of the question…
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The Orthogonal Bet: Unveiling the Complexity of Life: A Conversation with Philip Ball on ‘How Life Works'
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Welcome to The Orthogonal Bet, an ongoing mini-series that explores the unconventional ideas and delightful patterns that shape our world. Hosted by Samuel Arbesman, Complexity Scientist, Author, and Scientist in Residence at Lux Capital. In this episode, Samuel speaks with Philip Ball, a science writer, and formerly a longtime editor at the scienc…
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“The commons are under attack” from TikTok and subsea cables to data centers and elections
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2024 is the year of democracy, with more than half of the world’s population voting in elections across India and Indonesia to the European Union, United Kingdom and United States. Underneath the usual campaign slogans and stump speeches though is a crucial set of enabling technologies that are increasingly under attack, diminishing the will of vot…
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The Orthogonal Bet: How to fund R&D that is for the public good?
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In this episode, Sam speaks with Ben Reinhardt, an engineer, scientist, and the founder of a new research organization called Speculative Technologies. Ben is obsessed with building an open-ended and exciting future for humanity. After spending time in academia, government, startups, and even venture capital, he set out to build a new type of resea…
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Is AI killing journalism? Pitchforks, Perplexity and reporters yelling “Boo!”
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Another week, another media tempest in a shrinking tea cup. This time, the internet’s ire centered on Perplexity AI, a startup that offers a layer on top of LLM models that can answer real-time questions about current events. The company got into hot water after it summarized a paywalled Forbes article on Eric Schmidt and his investments in drones …
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From the Archive: Can A Simple Walk Revolutionize Networking with Elle Beecher, Founder of The Board Walks
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In honor of the The Board Walks' 100th walk this past weekend, we are rereleasing our episode with Board Walks Founder Elle Beecher. Episode Originally Aired September 12, 2023 ---------------------- Fostering connectivity within an innovation ecosystem is crucial for its ongoing vitality and growth. Often revolutionary concepts emerge from the mos…
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The Orthogonal Bet: SimCity, Maxis and the ambitious modeling of everything
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The Orthogonal Bet is an ongoing miniseries of the Riskgaming podcast that explores the unconventional ideas and delightful patterns that shape our world hosted by Samuel Arbesman, complexity scientist, author, and Scientist-in-Residence at Lux Capital. In this episode, Sam speaks with game designer and researcher Chaim Gingold, the author of the f…
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Why high-throughput bio research needs better tools immediately
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There have been data revolutions in most areas of human activity, and biological research is no exception. The rapidly shrinking cost of collecting data like DNA sequences means that there has been an exponential growth in the amount of data that bio researchers have at their disposal. Yet, most biologists still operate on top of general purpose cl…
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AI, Defense, and the Future of Warfare with Charlie Burgoyne, Founder and CEO of Andromeda and Valkyrie
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The future of defense and warfare has always been linked to technological change, from the discovery of fire to the Bronze Age to the Nuclear Age to now the AI Age. My guest today is Charlie Burgoyne, Founder and CEO of both Valkyrie and their newest spinout Andromeda, who joins me to discuss the future of warfare going forward. But we don't stop t…
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The Orthogonal Bet: Novelist Robin Sloan’s Love for Books with Maps on the First Page
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Hello, and welcome to the ongoing mini-series, The Orthogonal Bet, a show that explores the unconventional ideas and delightful patterns that shape our world. Host Samuel Arbesman, Complexity Scientist, Author, and Scientist in Residence at Lux Capital. In this episode Sam speaks with Robin Sloan, novelist and writer and all-around fun thinker. Rob…
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A Texas Investment Thesis with Krishna Srinivasan, Founding Partner of LivOak Ventures
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The only constant in Austin seems to be change. Whether that be the people moving here, the buildings defining our skyline, or the startups being founded and funded. Today, my guest is Krishna Srinivasan, founding Partner of LiveOak Ventures. We will explore what it means to invest in Texas startups yesterday, today, and tomorrow. Episode Highlight…
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How Applied Intuition used the Valley’s hardest lessons to upgrade automotive with autonomy
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Qasar Younis and Peter Ludwig built Applied Intuition differently from most other startups. At a time of profligate spending at the peak of the tech bubble, they kept expenses low — and the company cash-flow positive for several years now. When every other company was moving toward remote work or a hybrid setup, they doubled down on the in-person, …
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Orthogonal Bet: A technology vibe shift from utopian Star Trek to absurdist Douglas Adams?
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This is the inaugural episode of an on-going mini-series for the Riskgaming podcast we’re dubbing the Orthogonal Bet. Organized by our scientist-in-residence Sam Arbesman, the goal is to take a step back from the daily machinations that I, Danny Crichton, generally host on the podcast to look at what Sam describes as “…the interesting, the strange,…
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The soon-to-be-solved protein problem that will accelerate drug discovery
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We’ve known for decades that one of the key mechanisms of biology — and of life itself — is the binding of molecules to proteins. Once bound, proteins change shape and thus their function, allowing our bodies to adapt and change their molecular machinery as needed for survival. The challenge that remains unsolved is to predict — across billions of …
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Founder’s Perspective: What VCs Look for in AI & ML Startups with Cheryl Sew Hoy, CEO & Founder Tiny Health
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In this episode, recorded at the Austin Data Science Salon, I sit down with Cheryl Sew Hoy, CEO and Founder of Tiny Health. Tiny Health is a pioneer in gut microbiome testing, providing critical health insights for moms and babies during the first 1,000 days. We dive into the current buzz around AI and machine learning, discussing the tailwinds and…
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Margaret Mead and the psychedelic community that theorized AI
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How does science progress? One way to look at the question is to peer into individual fields and observe the flow of ideas from laboratories and experiments into seminars and conferences and ultimately into the journal record. But the reality is so much more complicated since science is truly a creative act, a set of imaginative leaps from incumben…
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The nightmare specter of designer bioweapons and the people trying to stop them
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Ever since the invention of CRISPR technology about a decade ago, biologists have gained increasing power to discover new DNA sequences, cut and mash them up, and then print them in ever larger volumes through biomanufacturers. That freedom and openness is the opening to a long-awaited Century of Bio, with scientists bullish on the potential to dis…
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Innovation at the Intersection of Venture and Nonprofits with Alice Pomponio, Managing Director BrightEdge - American Cancer Society
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How does a nonprofit innovate and scale its mission? Joining me today is Alice Pomponio, Managing Director of BrightEdge, the venture arm of the American Cancer Society, to discuss the intersection of venture capital and nonprofit work. Is this approach a unique case, or part of a new wave of strategies catalyzing the defeat of cancer and other soc…
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The Race for Quantum Dominance with Scott Faris, CEO Eqlipse Quantum
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I am diving back into the quantum realm where the stakes are high and the potential for innovation is even higher. Joining me is Scott Faris, a seasoned expert in the field, to unravel the complexities and opportunities of quantum technology. We explore how this revolutionary tech is shaping the future of global industries and national security, an…
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