Hosted by Éric Grenier, The Writ podcast explores the world of elections and politics in Canada. www.thewrit.ca
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A podcast all about the board game Spirit Island! Designed by Eric Reuss and published by Greater Than Games, Spirit Island has become a favorite of ours and we love to talk all about it! Join us as we embarrass ourselves each episode as we dive head first into strategies, combos, analysis and more! Get in touch with us down below in the comments section! Or check out our Facebook page here at www.facebook.com/The-Kindred-Spir…-102981524884534 Or visit us on our Instagram at www.instagram.co ...
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What are the most likely results of the Elmwood–Transcona and LaSalle–Émard–Verdun byelections? We rank the potential outcomes — with a draft! We also discuss the latest federal polling numbers and what they mean for all parties (especially the NDP), the prospect of Pablo Rodriguez as PLQ leader, and some new polling numbers out of Saskatchewan. In…
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Will Blaine Higgs and his Progressive Conservatives win a third consecutive election when New Brunswickers are called to the polls in October (or, perhaps, sooner), or will Susan Holt score a win for her Liberals in a national climate that is turning against her party’s brand? On this week’s episode of The Writ Podcast, I’m joined by Jacques Poitra…
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The Numbers: Trudeau's next byelection test
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A byelection call looms in LaSalle–Émard–Verdun in a contest that could prove a stiff test for the Liberals, as the NDP and Bloc target what has been a safe Liberal seat in Montreal. Plus, another call could come in the Winnipeg riding of Elmwood–Transcona, where the Conservatives will put the NDP on the defensive. (Note: the Liberals announced the…
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On this episode of The Numbers, we discuss a new poll that gauges just how recognizable Justin Trudeau, Pierre Poilievre and other party leaders and top figures in the Liberal Party really are to Canadians. We also chat about the latest federal numbers, the ubiquitous Mark Carney rumours, the LaSalle–Émard–Verdun byelection and provincial polling o…
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As we wait to return from our break, we're back this week with an extended mailbag episode to answer listener questions, including: * Is it better to have an election in the summer or the winter? * Are the Liberals still the "natural governing party"? * Which past party leader who lost an election might have had a better shot at a different time? *…
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Ep. #129: Trudeau's and Poilievre's summer plans
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The Toronto–St. Paul’s byelection ensured that this political summer would be a hot one, as Prime Minister Justin Trudeau faces serious dissent within his caucus for perhaps the first time since becoming leader in 2013. What does this summer have in store for him and his Liberals and Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives? To break it all down, I’m joine…
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The Numbers: A turning point in Toronto–St. Paul's
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On this week's episode of The Numbers, we discuss what happened in the Toronto–St. Paul's byelection and what it means for the future of Justin Trudeau and the Liberals. We also chat about Naheed Nenshi's landslide win in the Alberta NDP leadership race and provincial premiers' approval ratings. For the mailbag, we discuss whether Toronto–St. Paul’…
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Ep. #128: Poll deep dive with David Coletto, byelection edition
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With the high-stakes byelection in Toronto–St. Paul’s on Monday, I invited David Coletto, chair and CEO of Abacus Data, to come back on the podcast to do another polling deep-dive — this time on on where things stand in Toronto and beyond. Armed with reams of polling data, we take a look at Battleground Toronto, as well as Justin Trudeau’s standing…
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The Numbers: Don't call it a comeback yet, Liberals
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On this week's episode of The Numbers, we discuss a new poll that puts the gap between the Conservatives and the Liberals at the smallest its been in months. We also chat about some new polls out of Atlantic Canada, Ontario and Quebec, and an upcoming byelection option for Naheed Nenshi in Alberta. We answer a question on the Toronto–St. Paul's bye…
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The last two weeks in B.C. politics have been frenetic ones. First, B.C. United leader Kevin Falcon revealed that the B.C. Conservatives had pulled out of negotiations meant to prevent a vote-split that could re-elect David Eby’s NDP government. Then, the Conservatives announced that one BCU MLA, and then a second, were crossing the floor to join J…
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The Numbers: Snap elections, byelections and Trudeau's leadership
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This week, we break down the latest federal polls and discuss whether or not they show a tightening of the race. We then delve into the Baie Verte-Green Bay byelection in Newfoundland and Labrador and the speculation of a snap election call in Ontario, and how those might be tied to Justin Trudeau's leadership. Plus, we have new numbers out of B.C.…
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Ep. #126: Wab Kinew's first election test as premier
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The polls suggest that Premier Wab Kinew is in the midst of a honeymoon after the Manitoba NDP’s victory last year, but that honeymoon will be put to the test on June 18 when voters go to the polls in the riding of Tuxedo, the seat of former premier Heather Stefanson and a riding that nearly joined most of the rest of the city in turning orange in …
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The Numbers: Strong, stable, national Conservative 20-point lead
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This week, we discuss another poll that shows a 20-point lead for the Conservatives, as well as some new numbers on how various religious communities are voting. We then delve into some provincial polling out of British Columbia and Quebec, and check-in on the Alberta NDP leadership race. In the mailbag, we chat about merger talks in B.C. and we cl…
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Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives have been in power in Ontario for nearly six years, but the party’s polling remains robust and the PCs have just come off two byelection victories — including in a seat the Ontario Liberals were hoping to flip. What’s behind Ford’s enduring support, and what’s the state of Bonnie Crombie’s Liberals and the NDP …
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The Numbers: Conservatives put up some big numbers
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On this episode of The Numbers, we discuss some BIG numbers that Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives are putting up in both national polls and first-quarter fundraising. What does this mean for Justin Trudeau? Plus, we chat about an odd poll out of British Columbia ahead of that province's fall election. In our mailbag, we answer a question on P…
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More than a week after Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland presented her federal budget, we still don’t officially know whether it will pass a vote in the House of Commons as the NDP’s Jagmeet Singh hasn’t committed to supporting it. What’s behind his party’s will-they-or-won’t-they dance? Considering where the polls stand today, Prime Minister Just…
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The Numbers: Could an election make sense for the NDP?
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This week, we assess the pros and the cons of an election for the New Democrats as Jagmeet Singh mulls whether or not to support the Liberal budget. We also chat about an upset PC victory in a Newfoundland and Labrador byelection as well as another poll showing the B.C. Conservatives on the move. We answer listener questions, including whether ther…
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Ep. #123: Will the Liberals' budget roll-out strategy work?
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The federal budget is only being presented next week, but already we know a lot of its highlights — thanks to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau laying it all out for us ahead of time. What’s behind this unusual strategy, and will the Liberals be able to use the budget to change the dial? Plus, what position does Trudeau’s jurisdictional fights with the…
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The Numbers: A new trend or another blip?
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This week on The Numbers, we discuss the latest federal polls and whether or not the gap is narrowing between the Conservatives and the Liberals. We also delve into the question of whether Chinese interference in the 2021 election cost Erin O'Toole seats and his job. Plus, two byelections have been called in Ontario. What to make of the races in Mi…
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Ep. #122: Where the Alberta NDP leadership race stands
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The Alberta New Democrats are looking for a new leader to replace Rachel Notley, and the campaign got a jolt this week when Rakhi Pancholi, one of the top contenders, withdrew from the running to throw her weight behind former Calgary mayor Naheed Nenshi. It raises many questions about the state of the race — including whether or not it’s already o…
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The Numbers: With Liberal friends like these...
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This week, Philippe and I chat about some of the latest federal numbers and how a trio of provincial Liberal leaders have come out against the carbon tax, putting Justin Trudeau in a bind. We also discuss what the political future of Liberal MP Anthony Housefather could mean for his riding on the island of Montreal. Plus, we have provincial polling…
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Ep. #121: Polling deep dive with David Coletto
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Last fall, I was joined by David Coletto, Chair and CEO of Abacus Data, to take a look at the new voter coalition that the Conservatives were building with a deep dive into his polling data. It was a really fascinating dissection of the polls, so I invited David back again on this week’s episode of The Writ Podcast for another deep dive — this time…
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If the proof of the pudding is in the eating, is the proof of the polls in Durham? We break down the results of this week's federal byelection as well as some new national polls. We then answer listener questions about the NDP's performance, the possibility of having an interim PM forced onto the hustings, and whether the Conservatives have the big…
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On Monday, voters in the Ontario riding of Durham will be going to the polls for a federal byelection to fill the seat vacated by former Conservative leader Erin O’Toole. It’ll be the culmination of what has been months of preparing for this contest. But what goes into running a byelection campaign? On this episode of The Writ Podcast, I’m joined b…
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The Numbers: Races for second places
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A new poll shows the NDP within spitting distance (yes, Philippe, that's a real thing) of the Liberals in the race for second place. What should we make of it — and some recent controversies that are dogging the Liberals? We also discuss new poll numbers showing the Ontario Liberals well ahead of the NDP for runner-up status behind Doug Ford, as we…
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Ep. #119: Making Canadian politics great again with the pollsters
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This week on The Writ Podcast, I’ve reconvened the panel of political pollsters to discuss all the latest in federal politics, including Jagmeet Singh’s threat to pull out of his party’s agreement with the Liberals, the recent candidate nominations for the Conservatives and whether or not it’s a good idea for Justin Trudeau to try to tie Pierre Poi…
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The Numbers: Will the NDP pull the plug?
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This week, Philippe and I discuss the latest threats from the New Democrats to rip up their confidence-and-supply agreement with the Liberals and just how likely it is that this could lead to the fall of the government. We also chat about new polls on how Canadians view support for Ukraine and where the parties stand in Quebec as chatter increases …
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Ep. #118: Trawling for votes on the east coast
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Provincial byelections are happening in Newfoundland and Labrador and Prince Edward Island, but those aren’t the only votes that are being chased in Atlantic Canada. With the polls suggesting Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives have made significant gains in the region, candidates are beginning to emerge as contenders to take on Justin Trudeau’s Liber…
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Are cracks starting to show in the Liberal caucus — and can more of them be prevented if the polling numbers don't improve? Philippe and I also discuss views on health care, new numbers out of Alberta and dive into the listener mailbag. What happens if Donald Trump is unable to be the nominee? And what about the Conservatives' new star recruit in B…
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Ep. #117: Election year in three provinces
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British Columbia, Saskatchewan and New Brunswick are all scheduled to go to the polls in October, making 2024 an election year in all three provinces. While voting won’t take place for months, parties in these three provinces are preparing for their upcoming campaigns. So, to keep you up to date on where things stand, I’ll be dipping into these thr…
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The Numbers: Nevermind, Liberals are doomed again
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After polls suggested the gap was narrowing a little between the Liberals and the Conservatives, a new survey puts the Conservatives back into landslide territory. We also discuss new polling on Canadians' views on the U.S. election, some upcoming byelections in Atlantic Canada and answer listener questions. Finally, Philippe gets his revenge on me…
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The Numbers: 3rd Annual Over/Under Contest!
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On this special episode of The Numbers, we port over a favourite from The Writ Podcast to mark the third edition of what is now our annual holiday tradition: the Over/Under Contest! Yes, for the third time we throw caution to the wind and make our predictions for the political year to come. Plus, we see who has the most egg on his face from last ye…
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Ep. #116: What we learned in 2023, what we'll have answered in 2024
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Justin Trudeau’s minority Liberal government survived another year but its prospects have never looked worse, as Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives took a commanding lead in the polls over the summer and have never looked back. In the end, 2023 could prove to be a turning point in the political careers of both leaders, regardless of who wins the next…
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The Numbers: Wait, maybe the Liberals aren't doomed after all?
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The latest Abacus Data poll shows a nine-point swing between the Liberals and the Conservatives over the last few weeks, closing the gap to (a still wide) 10 points. Is it a mirage or a Christmas miracle for Justin Trudeau and crew? We also discuss some provincial polling out of the Prairies, an upcoming byelection in Toronto and answer listener qu…
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Ep. #115: At year's end, where do Poilievre, Trudeau & Singh stand?
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Things have changed a lot over the last 12 months. At the beginning of 2023, Justin Trudeau’s Liberals and Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives were still deadlocked. Now, the Conservatives have a decisive lead as the Liberals try to figure out where to go from here. Plus, Bonnie Crombie has become the new leader of the Ontario Liberals. What impact wi…
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The Numbers: Have the Liberals hit their floor?
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This week, we chat about the latest polls that show the Liberals flirting with the NDP for third place. We also chat Liberal leadership polling and a little Ontario politics, plus we discuss the naming of the new female co-spokesperson of Québec Solidaire and sit down for a brief chat with Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois, male co-spokesperson of the party. W…
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Ep. #114: Is the OLP leadership Crombie's to lose?
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This weekend, voting will start for the Ontario Liberal leadership as the contest between Bonnie Crombie, Nate Erskine-Smith, Yasir Naqvi and Ted Hsu reaches its final stage. The result will be announced on December 2. But before the winner is revealed, voting will also take place in the riding of Kitchener Centre, where a provincial byelection is …
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We discuss the latest polls that show the Liberals in deep trouble and how the carbon tax has become a vote loser for Justin Trudeau's government. We also chat about the OLP leadership race and new recruits for Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives and answer listener questions. Plus, Philippe comes up with his toughest quiz yet. To join the Discord pag…
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Ep. #113: A blue tide in Newfoundland & Labrador?
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The Liberals have held sway in Newfoundland and Labrador ever since the federal and provincial parties won the elections of 2015. But that could be changing. The latest polls suggest Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives might turn the province blue, and while Premier Andrew Furey’s Liberals are still narrowly ahead in provincial voting intentions…
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On this episode of The Numbers, Philippe J. Fournier and I discuss some troubling polling and fundraising numbers for the Liberals and wonder how they could possibly keep this up for another 23 months. Plus, there's a shocking new poll out of Quebec, listener questions and a quiz that puts me on the spot. To join the Discord page for The Numbers an…
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Ep. #112: A new Conservative voter coalition
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There has been a lot of movement in the polls over the last few months. But who are the people behind those numbers? Joining me this week on The Writ Podcast is David Coletto, chair and CEO of Abacus Data. He’s compiled data from his recent surveys to give us a deep dive into how voters have migrated since 2021 and what each party’s electoral coali…
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The Numbers: Should Trudeau stay or should he go?
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This week, Philippe J. Fournier and I chat about some new polling numbers on Justin Trudeau's leadership and we dissect the NDP's prospects coming out of the convention, where Jagmeet Singh scored 81% on his leadership review. We also discuss just how much Teflon is coating Doug Ford and his Ontario PCs, and answer listener questions — including wh…
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Ep. #111: Foreign affairs and domestic politics
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It’s been an eventful few weeks since Parliament returned, as foreign affairs have injected themselves into our domestic politics. And last week, Manitoba held a historic election that could have some lessons for parties outside of the province. To break it all down, I’m joined again by the political pollster panel. Dan Arnold, chief strategy offic…
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The Numbers: What happens in Manitoba doesn't stay in Manitoba
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We break down the results of the Manitoba provincial election and the Quebec byelection in Jean-Talon, as well as some new polling numbers out of Ontario and Newfoundland and Labrador. We also answer listener questions (can the Conservatives ever win in Montreal?) and present our numbers of the week. To get access to the Discord page for The Number…
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Ep. #110: The Manitoba NDP's election to lose?
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With just days to go before the Manitoba election comes to a close, the polls suggest it could be Wab Kinew and the NDP’s to lose. But can Heather Stefanson’s Progressive Conservatives hold on to win a third consecutive victory? To discuss these final stages of the Manitoba campaign, I’m joined by Curtis Brown, principal at Probe Research, Ian Froe…
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We discuss just how well Canadians know the names of the Conservative leader and the members of the Liberal cabinet, as well as news about India, the creation of a new federal party, the latest Manitoba polls and a potential snap election in New Brunswick. Plus, we answer listener questions and Philippe has another quiz for Éric. To get access to t…
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Ep. #109: Early moves in Manitoba's campaign
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Manitoba’s election campaign is underway and is setting up to be a close contest between Heather Stefanson’s Progressive Conservatives and Wab Kinew’s New Democrats — so close, in fact, that Dougald Lamont’s Liberals could end up with the balance of power. To discuss this first stage of the Manitoba campaign, I’m joined by Curtis Brown, principal a…
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The Numbers: Conservatives hold a convention and a big polling lead
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In this first episode of The Numbers, a collaboration between myself and Philippe J. Fournier, we do a rundown of the latest federal polling and what it means for the three major parties. We also discuss the Conservative convention, the impact of the Greenbelt controversy on the Ontario PCs, the early days of the Manitoba election and the upcoming …
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It’s a break week here at The Writ, but things are about to get pretty busy this fall season with the launch of two new podcasts: The Numbers and Les chiffres! Philippe J. Fournier and I are really excited to start these two new projects, and we hope that you’ll be just as excited for them as we are. You can find more information about The Numbers …
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Ep. #108: What's the summer like for an MP?
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When the cameras get switched off in the House of Commons, the work of an MP doesn’t stop — and that includes over the summer months when politics might be the furthest thing from anyone’s mind. To give us an idea of what life is like for an MP away from Parliament Hill, I’m joined this week by two Members of Parliament: Dan Albas, Conservative MP …
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