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Trying to keep to a quick 5-minutes, Forbes thought leader and bestselling author, Ivan Illan, shares deep thoughts on capital markets and economics. Unscripted and potent ideas are shared on topical economic and capital markets issues. Financial advisors and retail investors may find the most enjoyment from these musings. For more info or to submit questions/topics for consideration, visit: https://ivanillan.com
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Novel Dialogue

Aarthi Vadde and John Plotz

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Novel Dialogue: where unlikely conversation partners come together to discuss the making of novels and what to make of them. What makes us special? Critics and novelists in conversation. Breaking down the boundaries between critical, creative, and just plain quirky, Novel Dialogue’s approach is wide-ranging and unconventional. Ever wondered what Jennifer Egan thinks of TikTok, how Ruth Ozeki honed her craft working on the movie Mutant Hunt, or if Colm Tóibín will ever write a novel about an ...
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In this month's episode, Ivan Illan, Founder & CIO at AWAIM®, explores the dichotomy of two segments of the capital markets - U.S. high yield bonds and U.S. small cap stocks. Both of these segments are predominantly charaterized by below investment grade credit ratings and typically demonstrate high price correlations. However, the past few years h…
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The past few days have been hard on A.I. stocks, which until now have been driven higher and higher by the widespread A.I. euphoria. In this episode, I discuss a recent Working Paper (published May 2024) from the National Bureau of Economic Research that shares a more modest projection on the impact of A.I. in total factor productivity over the nex…
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What’s the truth and what’s a lie? What’s a memoir, what’s a novel, and what if both are just a series of “prose blocks”? This conversation between Sarah Manguso and Tess McNulty takes up questions of writing and veracity, trauma and memory. Sarah Manguso is the author of nine books, including three memoirs. Her first novel, Very Cold People, was n…
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Building parallels between technology and the human imagination, Masande Ntshanga’s conversation with Magalí Armillas-Tiseyra explains how cities are like machines and how South African history resembles some of the most sinister versions of techno-futurism. Masande is the author of two novels: The Reactive, winner of a Betty Trask Award in 2018, a…
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Omar El Akkad joins critic Min Hyoung Song for a gripping conversation that interrogates fiction’s relationship to the real. Before he became a novelist, Omar was a journalist, and his experiencing reporting on (among other subjects) the war on terror, the Arab Spring, and the Black Lives Matter movement profoundly shapes his fiction. His first nov…
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Brandon Taylor practices moral worldbuilding in his fiction—that means an essential piece of these worlds is the “real possibility that someone could get punched in the face.” Brandon, author of the novels Real Life and The Late Americans, joins Stephanie Insley Hershinow for a wide-ranging, engrossing, and often hilarious conversation about the st…
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For roughly two years, the U.S. economy has been undermined by a challenging dynamic - a yield curve inversion. Not to be ignored, when short-term interest rates are much higher that long-term interest rates, investor and lender behavior modulates accordingly. If this dynamic persists too long, unintended consequences become manifest across marketp…
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Although Katie Kitamura feels free when she writes—free from the “soup of everyday life,” from the political realities that weigh upon her, and even at times from the limits of her own thinking—she is keenly aware of the unfreedoms her novels explore. Katie, author of the award-winning Intimacies (2021), talks with critic Alexander Manshel about th…
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Anne Enright, writer, critic, Booker winner, kindly makes time for Irish literature maven Paige Reynolds and ND host John Plotz. She reads from The Wren, The Wren (Norton, 2023) and discusses the “etherized” state of our inner lives as they circulate on social media. Anne says we don't yet know if the web has become a space of exposure or of author…
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The Buffett Indicator (or Ratio) is a simple formula often referenced by famed investor Warren Buffett. It's simply, Total U.S. Stock Market Capitalization / U.S. GDP. The idea is basically higher ratios infer overvalued markets, while lower ratios may indicate stocks are broadly undervalued. Currently, this ratio stands at 186%. However, what if y…
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Ivan Illan, Founder & Chief Investment Officer at AWAIM® shares a conversational-style review of a recent research highlight published on the firm's website discussing U.S. credit card delinquency and other correlated metrics such as household savings, debt levels, and interest rate on credit cards. This discussion focuses on the confluence of thes…
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In this episode, Founder & CIO, Ivan Illan discusses the myriad issues around having a significantly positive US Output Gap - an important economic metric that reveals underlying inflationary pressures in an economy. For more information, charts and other details related to this episode, please visit: https://www.alignewealth.com/blog/research-high…
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REPLAY: On-Air Live interview of Ivan Illan on AM830 from "The Bruce Cook Conversation" orignally broadcast on Sunday, January 7, 2024 at 6PM PST. Ivan and Bruce chat about various economic issues impacting folks today from interest rates and taxes to debt and the upcoming election. Wide scope of topics covered and additional commentary on domestic…
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In this final episode for 2023, bestselling Dummies author, Forbes Finance Council member, Founder & CIO Ivan Illan, shares some preliminary insights as to what may play out during 2024 for both stock and bond markets globally. He highlights the period beginning March 2022, which coincides with the Federal Reserve's initiating a restrictive U.S. mo…
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Sheila Heti sits down with Sunny Yudkoff and ND host John Plotz to discuss her incredibly varied oeuvre. She does it all: stories, novels, alphabetized diary entries as well as a series of dialogues in the New Yorker with an AI named Alice. Drawing on her background in Jewish Studies, Sunny prompts Sheila to unpack the implicit and explicit theolog…
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Just days before the release of her latest novel, The Vaster Wilds (Riverhead Books, 2023), three-time National Book Award Finalist and The New York Times-bestselling author Lauren Groff sat down to talk to critic Laura McGrath and host Sarah Wasserman. Although Groff admits that she wants “each subsequent book to destroy the one” that came before,…
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Original Air Date: Sunday, November 19, 2023 at 6:30PM PST Listen to the replay from the on-air interview of Founder & Chief Investment Officer Ivan Illan conducted by The Conversation's Host Bruce Cook. Ivan returns to the show answering a wide variety of questions about the US economy, upcoming elections, inflation, and the Federal Reserve. https…
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Shehan Karunatilaka’s The Seven Moons of Maali Almeida (Norton, 2022), which won the Booker Prize in 2022, is a thriller that begins in the afterlife, an uproarious murder mystery set amid the tragedies of Sri Lanka’s long civil war. Its protagonist, a war photographer, has become a ghost with just seven moons to find his killer and give his life’s…
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This episode includes references to data shared in Ivan's upcoming Forbes.com article tentatively entitled, "For Decades Fed Funds Remained Higher Than The Inflation Rate, May Be Once Again". Citing nearly 50 years of historical averages regarding the Effective Federal Funds Rate, 30 Year Mortgage Rate, 10-2 Year US Treasury Spread, and the 10 Year…
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2 tables; 300 novels, 1500 pages of nature description: This is how Tom Comitta created The Nature Book, a one-of-a-kind novel cut from 300 years of English literary tradition. It has no human characters, no original writing, and it is astoundingly good! Tom sits down with distinguished Harvard prof, Deidre Lynch and host Aarthi Vadde to talk about…
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A more casual companion piece to Ivan's article published in Forbes on October 19, 2023, entitled "What A Flattening Yield Curve Means For Future Fiscal Fitness" Discussion on the importance of understanding the segment of the yield curve to which an investor has exposure. Also, a review of the basics on the time value of money - a related concept …
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Locus- and Nebula- award-winning author P. Djèlí Clark joins critic andré carrington (UC Riverside) and host Rebecca Ballard for a conversation about the archives, methods, and cosmologies that inform his speculative fiction. Clark’s fiction blends fantasy and horror elements with richly drawn historical worlds that speak to his academic life as a …
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Our season of the weird starts off with a conversation between the writer The New Yorker called “the weird Thoreau”, Jeff VanderMeer, and a scholar of the modernist weird, Alison Sperling (FSU). With ND host Chris Holmes, Jeff and Alison delve into how the ugly politics of Lovecraft’s “old” weird gives rise to the stylistic panoply of the New Weird…
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We kick off Season 6 with Kate Marshall, friend of the show and author of the forthcoming book Novels by Aliens: Weird Tales and the Twenty-First Century. Hosts and producers Chris Holmes and Emily Hyde ask Kate about the pulpy literary history of weird tales and learn how in the 21st-century weirdness emerges as both genre and mood. The conversati…
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In this episode Ivan cites recent PMI declines, while reframing the data that often minimizes the manufacturing sector's share of and relevance to the U.S. economy. A discussion follows on how nominal GDP data is referenced routinely, instead of real GDP. The conclusion is surprising to many - even finance professionals - regarding the enduring sig…
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In this episode, Ivan Illan rejoined Bruce Cook on The Bruce Cook Conversation, which was broadcast live on-air throughout Southern California and live streamed on KLAA AM 830 Angels Radio on Sunday, July 9, 2023 at 6PM PT. As a returning show guest, Ivan offered new perspectives and insights to many questions that Bruce presented regarding the sta…
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Aminatta Forna, author of Ancestor Stones (2006), Happiness (2018), and most recently The Window Seat (2021) joins Georgetown prof. Nicole Rizzuto and host Aarthi Vadde for a wide-ranging conversation about reversing the gaze. Born in Sierra Leone, Aminatta is of Scottish and Malian ancestry and grew up around the world. Her mixed upbringing led he…
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If you're wondering why your investment portfolio seems to be lagging the S&P 500 Index so far this year, it's because the market has bad breadth. Bad (or, in this case meaning, very narrow) market breadth illustrates that only a very few minority of companies are responsible for the majority of the return seen in the index. In this episode, I shar…
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Booker Prize shortlister Mariana Enriquez, author of Things We Lost in the Fire and The Dangers of Smoking in Bed, joins Penn State professor Magalí Armillas-Tiseyra and host Chris Holmes to talk about her most recent novel, Our Share of Night, her first to be translated into English. Our Share of Night follows a spiritual medium, Juan, who can com…
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With the publication of her most recent novel, White Horse, Erika T. Wurth breaks from the realism that characterized her earlier fiction and ventures into horror. White Horse follows Kari, an urban Native living in Denver, as a family heirloom belonging to her long-missing mother launches her into a world of the uncanny: ghosts and monsters lurch …
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Yesterday (Mother's Day), I returned as a half-hour guest on Bruce Cook Conversations on AM830 Angels Radio. This podcast contains the full interview replay which was broadcast live throughout Southern California on Sunday, May 14, 2023 at 6:30PM PT. Topics covered included Bruce's rapid fire questions on the state of the U.S. economy, debt ceiling…
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Don't be alarmed by the harse tone of this episode. A contractionary phase in the monetary cycle is a difficult and challenging one for labor, real estate, and capital markets. After years of expanding the monetary base, which had led to misallocations of inexpensive capital, those funds must be now eviscerated. Ivan explains the only two ways that…
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John Jennings—Hugo Award winner, New York Times bestselling author, curator, scholar, and Artist—is keenly aware that in adapting novels for the graphic format, his decisions turn what has only been imagined into facts drawn on the page. In this conversation with critic, translator, and teacher of a creative course on the art of making comics, Jean…
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