Moody’s experts from around the globe and external guests join hosts Scott Phillips and Vittoria Zoli discuss macro, financial and credit trends shaping the world of emerging markets. Published by Moody’s Investors Service.
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Moody's Talks - Focus on Finance
Moody's Investors Service, Ana Arsov, Danielle Reed, Mark Wasden, Bruno Baretta, Donald Robertson
Hosted by Danielle Reed of Moody's Financial Institutions team, Focus on Finance helps you keep on top of developments within the banking, insurance and asset management sectors — from the impact of tech disrupters and cyber risk to the ongoing effects of ESG and lower-for-longer interest rates. Published by Moody's Investors Service.
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Hosted by Nick Samuels of the US Public Finance team, Muniland delves into the latest developments impacting the credit environment for states, local governments, healthcare, higher education and more. In each episode, Moody’s analysts join Nick in exploring the ramifications of the pandemic, climate change, cyber risk, federal policy, pension burdens and other deep-seated challenges.
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On Moody’s Talks - Behind the Bonds, hosts Tania Hall and Jeff Pruzan join analysts from Moody’s corporate finance group worldwide to discuss the market forces shaping credit across industries - from airlines to telecoms and everything in between. These forces include the uneven recovery from the coronavirus pandemic, digital transformation, cyber risk, climate-change imperatives and much more. Please join us as we connect the dots on corporate credit quality.
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Moody’s insurance conferences throw spotlight on interest rates, inflation
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Cyber and climate risk are also high on the agenda at Moody’s summer 2024 insurance conferences in New York and London. Speakers: Audio excerpts from Sarah Williams, Chief Risk Officer, Guardian Life; Brandan Holmes, VP Senior Credit Officer FIG, Moody’s Ratings; Heather Lavallee, CEO, Voya; Joe Brandon, CEO, Allegheny; Sarah Hibler, Associate Mana…
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Latin American national oil companies face hurdles in reducing greenhouse gas emissions
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Challenges include the region’s reliance on fossil fuels to meet energy demand amid population growth, the companies’ weak financials and governments’ reliance on revenue from oil and gas producers. Guests: Roxana Munoz and Carolina Chimenti, both Vice President - Senior Analysts, Corporate Finance Group, Moody's Ratings Host: Vittoria Zoli, Analys…
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Ballooning stadium subsidies amplify risk for US states and local governments
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Stadium projects are often less financially beneficial than projected for the governments subsidizing them, though a shift toward multipurpose facilities brings the potential for enhanced returns. Guest: Greg Sobel, AVP-Analyst - Moody’s Ratings Host: Nick Samuels, Senior Vice President, Moody’s Ratings Related content on Moodys.com (may only be av…
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Central bank push to tame inflation boosts credit quality of Turkish sovereign, companies
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Rate hikes in Turkiye have slowed inflation, and confidence in the country’s currency is increasing. The sovereign’s creditworthiness is improving as a result, along with that of Turkish companies. Guests: Kathrin Muehlbronner, Senior Vice President, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody’s Ratings; Iker Ballestero Barrutia, Analyst, Corporate Finance Group, …
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Dubai’s new regulator for virtual assets aims for order in digital finance
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Matthew White, CEO of Dubai’s Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority (VARA), explains how the regulator is trying to make it safer for financial institutions to expand into digital finance in the region. Speakers: Matthew White, CEO of VARA; Rajeev Barma, SVP and Head of Strategy, Digital Economy, Moody’s Ratings Host: Danielle Reed, VP – Senior Resea…
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Kenya protests highlight transmission of social risk to sovereign creditworthiness
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The opposition to proposed tax hikes impedes the government’s ability to increase revenue and reduce debt. Similar risks exist for other emerging market sovereigns too. Guest: David Rogovic, Vice President - Senior Credit Officer, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody’s Ratings Host: Scott Phillips, Head of Emerging Markets, Credit Strategy and Research, Moo…
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US banks and life insurers face commercial real estate risks
26:27
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Our analysts discuss which segments and loan types pose the largest risks to US banks and life insurers, and zero in on concentration risks in asset portfolios. Speakers: Evelyn Ocas Salazar, AVP-Analyst, Moody’s Ratings; Darrell Wheeler, VP-Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Ratings; Stephen Lynch, VP-Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Ratings, Hosts: Dan…
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Aerospace and defense outlook still positive but airplane manufacturers’ woes continue
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This month our analysts are discussing what’s driving our still positive outlook for the global aerospace and defense sector for the next 12-18 months. Defense budgets are up as a result of rising geopolitical tensions and we expect strong operating profit for these companies. But persistent supply chain issues are delaying the delivery of new plan…
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NCAA settlement and declining enrollment shift the higher education landscape
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Higher expenses after a $2.78 billion agreement on student athlete payments pose a credit risk for smaller colleges, which already face rising competition from larger, cheaper institutions. Guests: Patrick Ronk, AVP-Analyst - Moody’s Ratings; Nicole Serrano, VP-Sr Credit Officer - Moody’s Ratings Host: Nick Samuels, Senior Vice President, Moody’s …
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Steady GDP growth continues for emerging markets, with wide variation by country
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We have revised our aggregate EM forecast up slightly to 3.9% for 2024-25 to reflect faster-than-expected growth in some of the largest EMs so far this year. Disinflation continues but is slowing. Speaker: Madhavi Bokil, Senior Vice President, Credit Strategy at Moody's Ratings Host: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst, Emerging Markets at Moody’s Ratings Relat…
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Blockchain, unchained: Institutional adoption is a leading indicator of blockchain expansion
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Yuval Rooz, CEO of Digital Asset, shares his thoughts on the present and future use cases of blockchain technology at global financial institutions. Speakers: Cristiano Ventricelli, VP – Senior Analyst, Moody’s Ratings; Yuval Rooz, CEO, Digital Asset Host: Danielle Reed, VP – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Ratings…
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South Africa’s creditworthiness with a new coalition government
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The creation of a coalition government following 29 May elections will likely support broad policy continuity and reforms, but the risk of government instability and ineffectiveness is significant. Guest: Aurelien Mali, Vice President-Senior Credit Officer, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody's Ratings Host: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director, Cre…
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Insurers’ allocations to private credit will grow in all regions
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We discuss how differences in regional regulatory regimes and market structures affect life insurers’ allocations to private credit investments, and lay out those investments’ benefits and risks. Speakers: Benjamin Serra, Senior Vice President, Moody’s Ratings; Will Keen-Tomlinson, VP-Senior Analyst, Moody’s Ratings Host: Danielle Reed, VP – Senior…
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Rapid growth of weight-loss drugs will influence multiple sectors in coming years
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The pharmaceutical market has exploded in recent years with the rise of new drugs to help treat obesity and diabetes. The shift marks a huge opportunity for the pharmaceutical sector, which is pursuing the diabetes and obesity markets with four blockbuster drugs today: Ozempic and Wegovy from Novo Nordisk, and Mounjaro and Zepbound from Eli Lilly. …
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Revenue shortfall leaves California facing a budget squeeze
15:48
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Spending cuts of $25 billion will ease the deficit, though out-migration of high earners remains a drag on revenue. K-12 education will avoid significant cuts, but is vulnerable if the economy slows. Guests: Matt Butler, VP-Sr Credit Officer - Moody’s Ratings; Helen Cregger, VP-Sr Credit Officer - Moody’s Ratings Host: Nick Samuels, Senior Vice Pr…
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Views from Moody’s Global Emerging Markets 2024 virtual event
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Moody’s Ratings experts discuss the fragile recovery and new threats in EMs, including macro conditions, default trends, credit risks for sovereigns and corporates, and bright spots. Host: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director, Moody’s Ratings Related Research: Fragile recovery in EM credit conditions will continue Emerging Markets – Global: …
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Japan’s regional banks face rate rises; India’s non-bank finance companies see loan growth
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Moody’s Ratings analysts explain why Japan’s regional banks are vulnerable to yield-curve steepening and predict strong loan growth, and higher funding costs, for India’s non-bank finance companies. Speakers: Kensuke Ogawa, Analyst, Moody’s Ratings; C.J. Wong, AVP- Analyst, Moody’s Ratings Host: Danielle Reed, VP – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s R…
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Credit-risk transfer transactions’ prominence grows as regulations evolve
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As the regulatory environment continues to evolve, US and European banks have sought regulatory capital relief by offloading the credit risk of loans they make via special types of transactions. Guests: Warren Kornfeld, Senior Vice President at Moody's Ratings; Nick Monzillo, VP-Senior Analyst at Moody's Ratings; Frank Cerveny, VP-Senior Research A…
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Deepfakes pose real credit risk to corporations, financial institutions and governments
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11:48
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We talk to Joe Lyons of Bitsight about the growing risk from deepfakes in the age of GenAI. Speakers: Joe Lyons, VP, Cyber Risk & Ratings Research, Bitsight; Abhi Srivastava, AVP-Analyst, Moody’s Ratings Host: Danielle Reed, VP – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Ratings Related Research: Digital Economy – Cross Region: GenAI-powered deepfakes introd…
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Frontier markets: higher risk, higher potential returns
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19:20
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Join Scott Phillips, head of EM at Moody’s Ratings, and Maciej Woznica, portfolio manager at asset management firm Coeli, for a tour of the least-developed emerging markets. Guest: Maciej Woznica, Portfolio Manager, Coeli Host: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director, Moody’s Ratings Related Research: Gradual recovery in emerging market credit …
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Shift to T+1 settlement has near-term risks, long-term benefits for US securities sector
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Shortening the settlement cycle is a complex undertaking for a clearing house and its members, but once the transition is complete, it will reduce counterparty risk. Speakers: Peter Nerby, Senior Vice President, Moody’s Ratings Host: Danielle Reed, VP – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Ratings Related Research: Exchanges & Clearing Houses – North Am…
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Global commodities under pressure as China’s growth engine slows
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The commodities sector isn’t looking rosy and that is largely due to the outsize influence of China, which is currently in the grip of an economic slowdown. These pressures come on top of geopolitical damage to trade and supply chains, and the energy transition which is increasing global appetite for some commodities and eroding it for others. Our …
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As individual investors drive growth in private markets, risks also rise
7:05
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Alternative asset managers seek removal of barriers to private markets for individual investors. Regulators are supportive but also wary of potential dangers. Speakers: Alexandra Aspioti, VP-Senior Analyst, Moody’s Ratings Host: Danielle Reed, VP – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Ratings Related Research: As individual investors drive growth in pri…
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Speculative-grade default rate for emerging market companies improves with macro conditions
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The default rate will decline to 3.3% by the end of Q1 2025, far below the peak of nearly 15% at the end of 2022 which was driven by the Russia-Ukraine war and China’s property market woes. Guest: Yang Liu, Vice President - Senior Analyst, Moody's Ratings Host: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director, Moody’s Ratings Related Research: Corporate…
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Insurance crisis poses credit risks for hurricane-prone Florida and Louisiana
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As climate issues mount, residents face escalating property insurance costs and, in some cases, difficulty obtaining coverage at all, which threatens to hurt the economy and curtail tax collections. Guests: Bola Kushimo, Vice President - Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Ratings and Denise Rappmund, Vice President - Senior Analyst, Moody’s Ratings Hos…
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US homeowners insurers raise prices as inflation and weather-related losses take a toll
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Companies have responded to weather-related losses and higher reconstruction costs with sharp increases in premiums and tighter policy terms, and some have exited high-risk regions. Speakers: Evelyn Ocas Salazar, AVP Analyst, Moody’s Ratings Host: Danielle Reed, VP – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Ratings Related Research: Property & Casualty Insu…
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Middle East: from geopolitical tensions to Islamic finance
15:59
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Moody’s analysts discuss the increased risk for sovereigns from escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict, and then shift to the growing demand for Islamic finance. Guests: Christian Fang, Vice President – Senior Analyst, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody’s Ratings; Badis Shubailat, Assistant Vice President – Analyst, Financial Institutions Group, Moody’s R…
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Tokenization is bridging traditional and digital finance
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Anthony Moro, CEO of Provenance Blockchain Foundation, joins us to talk about the technology and infrastructure developments shaping the future of financial asset tokenization. Speakers: Rajeev Bamra, SVP and Head of Strategy, Moody’s Ratings; Anthony Moro, CEO, Provenance Blockchain Foundation Host: Danielle Reed, VP – Senior Research Writer, Mood…
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Moody’s analysts explore green finance, discussing greenwashing risk, the EU green loan market, and how clear standards and rules – and blockchain technology – could play a positive role. Speakers: Michael Dion, VP – Senior Analyst, Moody’s Ratings; Alberto Postigo, VP – Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Ratings; Abhi Srivastava, AVP Analyst, Moody’s …
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Global real estate prospects remain rocky
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The outlook for the global real estate market remains negative with the bumpy economy, tight financing conditions and the surge in remote work. In the US, we expect rental income growth for offices to remain poor overall and apartment income growth to moderate this year with supply up, mostly in parts of the Sunbelt. Globally, Japan is a bright spo…
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EM macro conditions are improving unevenly as GDP growth stabilizes and inflation slows
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11:11
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Growth will slow in 2024 then stabilize in 2025 in most emerging markets. We have raised our forecasts for Asia, Central-Eastern Europe, the Middle East and Africa but lowered them for Latin America. Host: Scott Phillips, Head of Emerging Markets, Moody's Ratings Speaker: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst - Emerging Markets, Moody's Ratings…
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Graying of America poses financial risks for many local governments
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Local governments face a loss of economic vitality and tax revenue as the working-age population declines. Meanwhile, a tighter labor supply remains a chronic issue for the hospital sector. Guests: Frank Mamo, Vice President - Senior Analyst, Moody’s Ratings and Dan Steingart, Vice President - Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Ratings Host: Nick Samue…
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Basel Endgame will smooth real estate cycles, create opportunities for non-bank lenders
13:38
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Basel 3.1 reforms will lead banks to apply high haircuts to unsustainably high property values and adjust mortgage risk weights to better differentiate between low-risk and high-risk loans. Speakers: Alexander Zeidler, VP-Sr Credit Officer at Moody's Ratings; Guillaume Lucien-Baugas, VP-Senior Analyst at Moody's Ratings Hosts: Aaron Johnson, VP-Sen…
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Banks and financial regulators work to stay ahead of rising cyber threats
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18:10
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As cyberattacks rise and AI poses new dangers, Moody’s analysts discuss banks’ own views of their cybersecurity defenses and explain the EU’s plan to rein in risks from third-party tech providers. Speakers: Lucas Viegas, VP-Senior Analyst, Moody’s Ratings; Brandon O’Halloran, AVP-Analyst, Moody’s Ratings Host: Danielle Reed, VP – Senior Research Wr…
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China’s push to shift economic growth engines faces hurdles but will benefit some EMs
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It will take time and effort for sectors like tech and EVs to drive China’s GDP growth, and geopolitics is a risk. But emerging markets supplying relevant goods and services to China stand to benefit. Guest: Gong Cheng, Managing Director - Credit Strategy, Moody's Ratings Host: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst - Emerging Markets, Moody's Ratings…
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Outlook negative for US banks, deteriorating in Europe, mixed in Asia
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16:54
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Our 2024 Banking System Outlooks show more European systems joining the US on negative as economies slow and loan performance weakens. China stays negative, while India is positive. Speakers: Warren Kornfeld, Senior Vice President, Moody’s Ratings; Effie Tsotsani, VP-Senior Analyst, Moody’s Ratings; Juwon Lee, VP-Senior Analyst, Moody’s Ratings Hos…
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Fast Finance: Klarna’s rapid AI boost bodes well for other banks
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Swedish lender Klarna’s AI assistant is driving material credit improvement this year. In the US, disclosures from Wells Fargo point to what’s ahead for banks’ commercial real estate loan performance. Speakers: Stephen Tu, VP-Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Ratings; Allen Tischler, Senior Vice President, Moody’s Ratings Host: Danielle Reed, VP – Sen…
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Pace of electric vehicle sales hits several roadblocks
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17:23
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In our opening segment, we discuss the slight slowdown in global market share growth for battery electric vehicles (BEVs) as some incentives to buy have ended, yet prices remain high. A scarcity of charging stations in Europe and the US also remains a deterrent for consumers. Our second segment, which starts at 9:40, focuses on the charging shortag…
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Digging into key credit stories for emerging market sovereign investors across the globe
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China’s 2024 policy priorities and influence across Asia, the state of European consumers, Romania’s fiscal deficit, Argentina’s economy and Ecuador’s state of emergency are among the top stories. Guests: Lillian Li, Vice President – Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Ratings; Ruosha Li, Vice President – Senior Analyst, Moody’s Ratings; Ariane Ortiz-Bo…
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Intensifying droughts turn up the heat on US state and local governments
11:15
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As water shortages threaten to curb economic growth, governments in many parts of the country are stepping up investment in water management and conservation. Guests: Sunny Zhu, AVP – Analyst, Moody’s Ratings; Maddie Atkins, Analyst - Moody’s Ratings Host: Nick Samuels, Senior Vice President, Moody’s Ratings Related content on Moodys.com (may only…
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As growth of private credit in Europe picks up, so does competition from banks
12:51
12:51
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Over the next several years private credit in Europe will grow, largely because of companies’ substantial refinancing needs. But banks are already fighting to gain back market share. Speakers: Guillaume Lucien-Baugas, VP-Senior Analyst, Moody’s Ratings; Jeanine Arnold, Senior Vice President, Moody’s Ratings Host: Danielle Reed, VP – Senior Research…
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A focus on West Africa, where bright spots shine through political, security and climate risks
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Positive developments include strong GDP growth in Côte d’Ivoire and Senegal, a lifting of sanctions on Niger, and a few countries tapping international bond markets so far this year. Speaker: Mickaël Gondrand, Assistant Vice President-Analyst, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody’s Investors Service Host: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director, Emergi…
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We discuss the severe thunderstorms' rising insured costs. Plus: Earnings weakness in the Medicare Advantage business and US commercial real estate exposure of German banks. Speakers: Bernhard Held, VP-Sr Credit Officer, Moody’s Investors Service; Dean Ungar, VP-Sr Credit Officer, Moody’s Investors Service; Evelyn Ocas Salazar, AVP-Analyst, Moody’s…
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State-contingent debt instruments gain traction in restructurings as sovereign defaults rise
14:56
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These instruments provide flexibility on debt-service payments and can help bridge differences in restructuring talks. Protracted talks delay critical structural reforms and increase default risk. Guest: David Rogovic, Vice President – Senior Credit Officer, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody’s Investors Service Host: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Di…
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Artificial intelligence has potential to transform many types of companies
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Artificial Intelligence or AI is predicted to have a profound impact on many areas of business. In this episode of Behind the Bonds we assess where AI innovation is already showing significant potential. Which industries can expect to see improved productivity and what are the potential timelines for any positive impact on credit quality? We also d…
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Red Sea disruptions reshape cargo dynamics on America's East and Gulf Coasts
12:28
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Suspension of commercial shipping in the Suez Canal and reduced activity in the drought-afflicted Panama Canal have the potential to reduce revenue at key US ports. Guest: Moses Kopmar, Vice President – Senior Analyst, Moody’s Investors Service Host: Nick Samuels, Senior Vice President, Moody’s Investors Service Related content on Moodys.com (may o…
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AI's transformation of banking; plus, FHLBank reforms, fallout from Evergrande liquidation
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Steve Tu, Farooq Khan and Petr Paklin of Moody's, with Joe Lyons of Bitsight, on how AI will change banks; On Fast Finance, we discuss Evergrande's liquidation and upcoming FHLBank reforms. Speakers: David Yin, VP – Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Investors Service; Allen Tischler, Senior Vice President, Moody’s Investors Service; Stephen Tu, VP – S…
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Emerging market central banks lower rates while US Fed signals rate cuts are not imminent
12:54
12:54
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Recent interest rate cuts in Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Hungary are among the signs that EM financial conditions are improving. The primary market for EM bond issuance is likely to remain strong. Hosts: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director - Emerging Markets at Moody's Investors Service; Vittoria Zoli, Analyst - Emerging Markets at Moody's …
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Digital finance slowly advances towards interoperability and standardization
22:31
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Cristiano Ventricelli explains how recent improvements to digital finance systems could help them gain scale. Plus, we discuss BlackRock’s recent acquisition and the SEC’s approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs. Speakers: Abhi Srivastava, AVP – Analyst, Moody’s Investors Service; Neal Epstein, VP-Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Investors Service; Cristiano V…
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Middle East, North Africa credit conditions are stable in 2024 despite elevated geopolitical risks
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Conditions are more stable for sovereigns, banks and companies in the Gulf Cooperation Council region than in North Africa and Levant. An escalation of the Israel-Hamas military conflict is main risk. Speakers: Christian Fang, Vice President – Senior Analyst, Sovereign Risk Group at Moody’s Investors Service; Badis Shubailat, Assistant Vice Preside…
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