After today’s BoJ policy meeting and the heavy yen selling, Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities, talks to Chris Jakubowski, Director – Institutional FX Sales, about the BoJ policy outlook ahead following the meeting and the fallout in the FX market with the yen hitting new lows. Why has the MoF not yet in…

Heightened geopolitical risks in the Middle East have been an important driver of the FX market over the past week. Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst talks to Michael Owen, Head of Global Client Desk EMEA, about how geopolitical risks are impacting MUFG’s outlook for the FX market and how the BoJ’s upcoming policy meeting could impact JPY perfor…

It has been a tense week in the Middle East following the attack on Israel by Iran in the early hours of 14 April. Ehsan Khoman, Head of Research – Commodities, ESG and Emerging Markets (EMEA), contextualises the current level of geopolitical risk premium that is currently priced into global markets, and how this could evolve with the various scena…

This week saw the FX markets come back to life after a long period of lull with a sharp appreciation of the US dollar. Derek Halpenny, Head of Research, Global Markets EMEA & International Securities talks to Simon Mayes, Head of UK, Ireland and Switzerland Corporate Sales about the implications for the US dollar outlook following the US inflation …

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Abdul-Ahad Lockhart, Currency Analyst, discuss the recent performance of the USD which has benefitted from the paring back of Fed rate cut expectations. Will the release of the latest US inflation data for March encourage the Fed to delay rate cuts until 2H of this year?…

This week George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, walks through the ever evolving reaction function from the Fed, where George isn’t terribly concerned about the recent Fed hawkish comments. George feels that this has been standard operating procedure, where the Fed tries to calibrate their message after a FOMC meeting. What we learned …

At the end of an event-filled week for the financial markets Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities runs through with Shan Husain, Vice President Institutional Investors FX Sales EMEA, the key takeaways for the US dollar and other FX pairs. Derek also looks ahead to what will be in focus for the markets goin…

CERAWeek is arguably one of the most important annual events in the energy calendar. Under the theme of a “multidimensional energy transition”, the energy community is deliberating how best to navigate the “energy trilemma” of (i) affordability; (ii) security; and (iii) sustainability, in harnessing a just-and-orderly transition to net zero. Ehsan …

This week George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, gives us an update on his latest view since his last podcast and highlights what is driving market sentiment and views lately. George then walks us through the March FOMC preview report, focused on what is our base-case and risks around our views into and out of the Fed meeting. George b…

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Abdul-Ahad Lockhart, Currency Analyst, discuss how higher US inflation and stronger wage negotiation results in Japan have impacted the FX market over the past week. Will the BoJ and Fed policy updates in the week ahead prove to be an important turning point for USD/JPY?…

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Elizabeth Foster, Research Analyst from the Economic Research Office, discuss what has driven the sharp move lower in USD/JPY over the past week. Will downward momentum for the pair continue ahead of the BoJ’s upcoming policy meeting?By MUFG EMEA

FX volatility has fallen sharply – for some currency pairs to levels not seen since before the Global Financial Crisis. Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities talks to Seiko Kataoka-Fisher in Japanese Client Sales about events in the week ahead that might shake the FX market out of this volatility lull, incl…

Whilst US exceptionalism and sticky inflation may delay Fed easing into mid-year (and limit its scope), Ehsan Khoman, Head of Research – Commodities, ESG and Emerging Markets (EMEA), believes that the current set up is increasingly reminiscent of the soft landing Fed easing cycle of 1995 – a period when commodities surged more than 20% within the f…

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Abdul-Ahad Lockhart, Currency Analyst, discuss the performance of G10 FX carry trades at the start of this year. What are the main downside risks for carry trade performance in the near-term? Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)By MUFG EMEA

Ehsan Khoman, Head of Research – Commodities, ESG and Emerging Markets (EMEA), examines the potential implications of this year’s most important elections and contextualises as to whether 2024 may turn out to be a “preparation year” until crucial election outcomes are known for ESG policy direction. Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)…

The US dollar hit its highest level of the year this week and Derek Halpenny, Head of Research, Global Markets EMEA & International Securities talks to Jack Greenslade in FX Corporate Sales about the FX implications following the US inflation data and GDP data from Europe and Japan. Derek also discusses the return of USD/JPY to the “intervention zo…

The European Commission published its communication on the EU climate target, proposing a 90% cut in emissions by 2040, and a separate communication on its Industrial Carbon Management strategy. Ehsan Khoman, Head of Research – Commodities, ESG and Emerging Markets (EMEA), examines whether the plans provide a clear and stable investment signal nece…

George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, and Glenn Schultz, MUFG Head of Prepayment Modeling and Strategy, discuss the January 2024 remittance data as well as the 2024 outlook for prepayment and turnover. They also go over how prepayment turnover is likely to evolve in 2024 and how dislocation in demographics is both observed turnover ra…

This week George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, discusses the price action since the hawkish FOMC, stronger than expected NFP, hawkish chair Powell 60 minutes interview, and lastly, a higher than expected inflation report. In George’s view the macro and market conditions pre-CPI release were looking too good to be true. George believe…

The USD has continued to rebound over the past week although it’s performance has been mixed against other G10 currencies. Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst talks to Michael Owen, Head of Global Client Desk EMEA, about what have been the main drivers of FX performance over the past week. Will the JPY weaken further after hitting fresh year to da…

Ehsan Khoman, Head of Research – Commodities, ESG and Emerging Markets (EMEA), examines efforts to promote convergence between different green classifications and offers perspectives on what the reverberations are should policymakers make the decision of making taxonomy reporting mandatory in their jurisdictions. Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (P…

In this week’s podcast, Ehsan Khoman, Head of Research – Commodities, ESG and Emerging Markets (EMEA), examines 5 key questions this year on the implications of ESG on corporate strategies, operations, governance processes and investor sentiment across the EMEA region. Ehsan breaks down environmental, social and governance dimensions, particularly …

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Reza Nasehi, Vice President of the Japanese Client Sales Group for EMEA in London, discuss what has triggered a more volatile USD this week. Will renewed US regional banking concerns threaten to derail the USD’s rebound? Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)…

This week George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, reviews the key developments in the market as January comes to a close and February begins. We provide our view on the latest changes in government financing estimates and the upcoming jobs report. George walks us through the team’s FOMC preview for the January meeting where we believe t…

Derek Halpenny. Head of Research, Global Markets EMEA & International Securities talks to Michael Owen, Head of Global Client Desk EMEA, about the implications of the FOMC meeting and the US jobs report for the US dollar next week and beyond. Derek also discusses the potential pound impact from the Bank of England meeting and why MUFG Research are …

Pan-European funds claiming to invest on a ESG basis may need to sell all their fossil fuel holdings following a ruling by the French government. Ehsan Khoman, Head of Research – Commodities, ESG and Emerging Markets (EMEA), contextualises the update to France’s ISR fund label rule that restricts fossil fuel investments and aims to address greenwas…

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Simon Mayes, Head of UK, Ireland and Switzerland, Corporate Sales (FX) in London, discuss what have been the main drivers behind the US dollar’s rebound at the start of this year. They also discuss the latest policy meetings from the BoJ and ECB in the week ahead. Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)…

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Seiko Kataoka-Fisher, Vice President from Japanese Customer Sales for EMEA in London, discuss the key drivers of FX market performance so far this year. Will market expectations for earlier and deeper major central bank rate cuts be met? Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)…

Ehsan Khoman, Head of Research – Commodities, ESG and Emerging Markets (EMEA), contextualises the 2024 outlooks on commodities, energy, emerging markets and geopolitics, offering perspectives on how clients should position their portfolios in an era of heightened uncertainty and ongoing stress in global markets. Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PD…

George Goncalves, MUFG Head of Macro Strategy, discusses the 2024 outlook for U.S. credit markets with IG Desk Analyst Andrew Myers and HY Desk Analyst Bill Matthews. They cover topics from the recently published 2024 Desk Strategy Outlook, ranging from corporate bond issuance, key credit themes to watch ahead, and potential credit spread ranges.…

George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, discusses the 2024 outlook for the agency MBS sector with Glenn Schultz, MUFG Head of Prepayment Modeling and Strategy and our resident subject matter expert on mortgages. They cover topics from the recently published 2024 Desk Strategy Outlook, ranging from agency MBS issuance, prepayments, and t…

This week George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, discusses our Macro thesis around the economy and Fed policy. With unemployment low, inflation declining, and spending solid (helped by fiscal policy mid-year), all this resulted in stronger than expected GDP in 2023. The markets also embraced the soft landing narrative in the last two m…

The first week of 2024 is coming to an end and following the release of the US employment report, Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities talks to Michael Owen, Head of Global Client Desk about the impact of the jobs data on the financial markets and why the data is not as strong as it first looked. Derek als…

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, discusses the impact on the FX market from building evidence of slowing inflation in the UK & US. How does the BoJ’s reluctance to signal a shift away from negative rates alter the outlook for the yen?By MUFG EMEA

The core to our 2023 ESG outlook has been anchored on the energy trilemma of (i) affordability; (ii) security; and (iii) sustainability, in harnessing a just, and orderly transition to net zero. As we look to 2024, we permutate the conversation to the corporate trilemma of (i) growth; (ii) profitability; and (iii) sustainability. Ehsan Khoman, Head…

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Reza Nasehi, Vice President of the Japanese Client Sales Group for EMEA in London, discuss the FX market implications from this week’s major central bank policy updates. While the Fed opened the door to rate cuts, will the BoJ prepare the ground for a rate hike in the week ahead? Disclaimer: www.mufgresearc…

The 28th annual UN Climate Summit – known as COP28 – ended on 13 December with an agreement that’s being declared as both historic and full of loopholes. Ehsan Khoman, Head of Commodities, ESG and Emerging Markets Research (EMEA), examines what success looked like at COP28 and what corporates and investors can look forward to at COP29 as well as ot…

This week George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, marks to market the price-action since our last podcast in late November as well as how markets are setup ahead of a key week for central banks. With markets getting ready to closing out another year, how the FOMC event is received will likely set the stage if the risk-on continues into …

The yen surged this week and Derek Halpenny, Head of Research, Global Markets EMEA & International Securities talks about the yen move, whether the BoJ will hike rates this month and what lies ahead for the yen. Derek also discusses the heavy schedule of central bank meetings next week, including the Fed and the ECB and what this means for G10 curr…

Several announcements coming out of the first days of COP28 demonstrate the seriousness that stakeholders are aiming to adopt the summit's agenda. This may sound trivial, but such wrangling typically takes up a considerable amount of negotiation time at climate talks, such as the mid-year intersessional gathering in Bonn, where countries couldn’t a…

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Seiko Kataoka-Fisher, Vice President from Japanese Customer Sales for EMEA in London, discuss the FX market implications from the ongoing dovish repricing of central policy expectations. Will the USD sell off extend further in the week ahead? Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)…

COP28, the United Nations’ annual climate change conference, kicked off on 30 November, with tens of thousands of delegates congregating in the UAE to further the global climate process. Ehsan Khoman, Head of Commodities, ESG and Emerging Markets Research (EMEA), provides an examination into what corporates and investors need to know during the con…

Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities, talks to Shan Husain, Vice President - Institutional Investors FX Sales EMEA, about the factors behind why the euro has underperformed this week – it was the second worst performing G10 currency this week. Derek also looks to next week with the RBNZ meeting, data from …

This week George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, walks us through some of his latest special topics in the Macro2Markets Monthly Outlook report. As the title suggests, we first explore the risk-on mood on Wall Street and what is driving it. In George’s view, he believes it is a bit premature that some market participants are reading th…

Lee Hardman, Currency Analyst, and Reza Nasehi, Vice President of the Japanese Client Sales group for EMEA in London, discuss the impact on the FX market from further evidence of slowing inflation in the UK and US. Has the tide turned against the US dollar? Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)By MUFG EMEA

The US dollar has recovered some of last week’s losses and Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets Research & International Securities talks to Michael Owen Head of Global Client Desk EMEA about what helped prompt a recovery of the US dollar this week. With no single clear driver of FX and rates this week, Derek looks ahead to next week and…

In today's episode, George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, and Glenn Schultz, MUFG Head of Prepayment Modeling and Strategy, discuss October's remittance data, relative value against the backdrop of slower seasonal prepayment, and the outlook for the current coupon basis against the headwinds of 2023's never ending conga line of black …

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Jack Greenslade from the Global Customer Marketing Group, discuss the main drivers behind the sharp adjustment lower for the USD and US yields over the past week. Have we now passed the peak of US exceptionalism priced into FX markets? Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)…

This week George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, takes us around the world and back, discussing the latest changes from the Bank of Japan (BoJ), ahead of October month-end trading and the critical double-header events on November 1, when the Treasury releases its quarterly refunding announcement (Q.R.A.) for its Treasury supply needs. …

Swings in the 10yr UST bond yield reverberated into the FX markets this week with the EUR/USD intra-day high-low weekly range the widest since mid-July. Derek Halpenny, Head of Research, Global Markets EMEA & International Securities, talks to Simon Mayes, Head of UK, Ireland and Swiss Corporate Sales, about the continued resilience of EUR/USD and …