Is the market downdraft that sent stocks 5% lower from their recent all-time highs over? It's looking like it could be. But the market is at a "critical juncture" observes portfolio manager Lance Roberts. The S&P is getting quite close to its 50 and 20 Daily Moving Averages. If it rises above them, then we're likely back off to the races and new al…

With the market now expecting less than 2 rate cuts this year -- perhaps none at all until next year according to Bank of America -- what does that mean for the economy? Can it handle "higher for even longer" interest rates without slowing markedly? Or, even worse, something systemic breaking? And what impact will these higher rates likely have on …

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.comStocks have sold off sharply since hitting all time highs just 3 weeks ago.Bond prices are falling, too.What's going on here?Is this just a needed pullback to remove excessive froth before the market re…

On the famous fear/greed index, after spending most of the past year and half in "greed", we've suddenly switched to "fear" over a very short time frame. The S&P has broken below both its 20 and 50 Daily Moving Averages. Inflation printed hotter than expected, making Wall Street start to doubt the Federal Reserve's ability to deliver expected rate …

Well, the relentless bull rally that began in November is over. Stocks fell hard this week, with the S&P breaking below 5000 on Friday. It's now down nearly 300 points from its all-time hit, which it hit just 3 weeks ago. How low is this pullback likely to go? Portfolio manager Lance Roberts and I discuss just that in this week's Market Recap, as w…

The headline economic data gives a comforting sense the economy is strong. The media headlines tell us the consumer is "resilient" But if you ask most Americans, they'll tell you they're struggling. Last year, a Forbes Advisor survey revealed that nearly 70% of respondents either identified as living paycheck to paycheck (40%) or—even more concerni…

This is a live Special Report with geopolitical expert Ryan Bohl, MidEast analyst for the RANE Network. Given the serious nature of and confusion around the escalation of hostilities between Iran & Israel, I've brought Ryan on the program to ask him:- The drivers of tension between Iran and Israel- What led to this weekend's attack?- What do you ex…

The price of gold has experienced a breakout over the past month and a half. What does that mean? Is that a sign that investors are worried about higher inflation to come? Or that capital is fleeing to safety in advance of approaching economic trouble? Or is this price surge due to speculative zeal? For answers, we turn to capital manager Axel Merk…

When I last interviewed today's guest back in December, he said that the forecast of his proprietary model made him about "as bullish as he'd ever been on stocks" heading into 2024. And to give credit where credit is due, his positioning was spot on the money. The S&P 500 & NASDAQ both increased by 11% in Q1 So what is his model telling us to expec…

The unending string of up weeks we saw in stocks in Q1 has ended here in April. The market had a volatile week, with the S&P ending roughly 100 points lower and bond yields continuing to rise, with the UST 10-year now over 4.5% Notably, the S&P has broken below the bullish trendline it has been trading in since the bull rally began back in November…

In Q1, investors could do no wrong. Making money was easy as almost every asset class rose to new highs as markets anticipated coming interest rate cuts from. But here at the start of Q2, things are starting to feel a lot less safe. Suddenly stock prices are plateauing, and services inflation plus a swiftly rising oil price are quickly dashing hope…

Today's guest expert is concerned that too many investors, giddy with the ferocious market gains since November, are increasingly willing to pay prices for assets that only make sense if the pace of gains continues into the far future. This is called "extrapolating the unsustainable" and is a hallmark of late stage price melt-ups. Historically, thi…

There's a lot of uncertainty in the world right now -- geopolitical, economic, social, and environmental. At times like this when the path forward is unclear and the stakes are high, it's wise to tap the counsel of those with a strong command of the lessons of history, and the practical experience of a lifetime in the market trenches. There are few…

Are cracks starting to appear in the bull market rally? Portfolio manager Lance Roberts thinks so. His technical dashboard is now showing sell signals as volatility is increasing and the S&P has broken beneath its 20 Daily Moving Average.Next week should be telling. If the S&P rises and closes back above its 20 DMA, that should mean the bull trend …

The Federal Reserve is one of, if not the most, significant institutions in the world given the global impact of its policy decisions.It influences the price of nearly everything, as well as the availability of jobs, the stability of our banking system, and the purchasing power of our money.When the Fed Chair speaks, the entire world stops to liste…

Stocks have delivered a great ride over the past year and a half.That has attracted retail investors back into the markets with a vengeance. Household equity ownership is currently near an all-time high.Does this bull market still have plenty of room left to run?And if so, what are the skeptics misunderstanding?For insight, we have the good fortune…

When I interviewed today's guest expert back in August of 2021, when inflation was 5%, he made the bold prediction that the CPI would eventually hit 9%, a prediction that seemed unthinkable at the time -- but it indeed proved true less than a year later.He then called for inflation to moderate substantially, which it also then did.Where does he see…

Nearly every asset class saw gains in Q1 -- stocks, the dollar, gold, Bitcoin and real estate.Will the rally keep powering higher through the remainder of 2024?Portfolio manager Lance Roberts thinks, while anything is possible, stocks are increasingly at risk of a pull-back, especially as the Presidential election approaches.Markets hate uncertaint…

Animal spirits have certainly been running wild in the stock market of late.The S&P is up over 1,000 points (roughly 25%) in the past 4.5 months.Is this a new era of easy gains as giddy bulls are proclaiming? One investors should jump in and make the most of?Or is this the latest incarnation of irrational exuberance? And is caution warranted instea…

Recent inflation reports show that it's proving "sticky", stubbornly refusing to recede down to the target rates that central banks are shooting for. But rather than simply staying sticky, could it actually start surging again? Today's guest expert thinks it could due to growing global economic imbalances. If that happens, what will the implication…

The global economy is awash in too much debt, which continues to pile up at an exponential rate.History is clear how such eras end. The purchasing power of currency gets destroyed.To understand why the barbarous relic has risen to an all-time high and may have an even better year lying ahead, we have the good fortune to speak today with macro & pre…

As Q1 concludes, corporations are starting to enter the blackout period preventing them from buying back their stock until they've released their quarterly earnings (weeks away for most companies)That temporarily removes THE most important buying support for shares. Combine that with other expected net liquidity reductions in Q2, such as the end of…

Portfolio manager & Fed-watcher Axel Merk shares his immediate take-aways from this week's FOMC release and press conference with Fed Chair Jerome Powell. He'll also take live Q&A from viewers WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #federal…

Well, the first-ever Thoughtful Money conference was held online this past weekend and I’m delighted to say the event was a real success.That was due primarily to the amazing line-up of speakers who presented and took live audience Q&A throughout the insight-packed 9 hour day.Lacy Hunt delivered the keynote, followed by Stephanie Pomboy, Michael Pe…

For a long time now, passive capital inflows have powered equities higher, especially the Magnificent 7, as a tremendous percent of every new dollar that flows into the market goes into these 7 stocks. But some of these once-bulletproof companies are now starting to struggle.And those passive capital inflows? There are emerging signs they may be st…

Stocks pretty much ended the week where they began.Is the raging rally that has propelled stocks higher so far this year finally running out of gas?Quite possibly thinks portfolio manager Lance Roberts. Valuations remain at extremely stretched extremes for many assets including story stocks like Nvida, speculative assets like Bitcoin...and even gol…

To better understand the current economic environment we find ourselves in, it helps to better understand how we ended up here.And few have as detailed an understanding as today's guest, who has been a true insider in both Washington DC and Wall Street for his extremely long & accomplished career.We're fortunate today to speak with former Congressm…

Since the October lows, stocks have roared back to record highs, and bonds have risen solidly as US 10yr Treasury yields have dropped from 5% to near 4%Will the bull run continue through the rest of 2024? It is an election year in America after all.Or, have the animal spirits carried assets to unsustainable prices, putting us in danger of a painful…

When today's guest was on this channel back in December, he explained that rising net liquidity was responsible for the surprisingly strong performance seen in both the economy & the financial markets in 2023. And he predicted that these net liquidity inflows would continue, leading to even higher asset prices ahead. Well, here in the final month o…

Well, another week, another all-time high in stocks. Valuations are now stretched to extremes only seen near a bubble top, and volatility is low...too low. The odds of a pull-back, perhaps a larger correction, are concerningly high enough to make this now a time to hedge your positions, advises portfolio manager Lance Roberts. In this video, he & I…

The media is full of reports that the economy is in fine shape due to a "strong" and "resilient" consumer who has held up much better than expected during the recent years of high inflation and high interest rates.But has the average consumer truly shrugged all that off?Or are they in worse shape than we're being told?For a deep dive into the true …

As the stock market trades at all-time highs, is this a great time to continue to ride the bull rally?Or has the getting been too good for too long? Is it instead now a good time to take gains and wait for a correction?Today we'll hear answers to these questions from Chance Finucane, Chief Investment Office at Oxbow Advisors. Oxbow Advisors is a fi…

The economy is chugging along at more robust GDP growth than many expected. Inflation has moderated and unemployment remains low.Many, including Wall Street for certain, have bought into the soft landing -- or no landing at all -- narrative.We're in a Golidilocks era they tell us. Bears should stop worrying, admit they've been wrong, and join the p…

Investing great Ray Dalio said this week: "The stock market doesn't look very bubbly".But Bank of America just released a new report titled: "The S&P 500 is egregiously expensive"Who's closer to right?Portfolio manager Lance Roberts leans more towards BofA's assessment, though that doesn't mean the current mania in stocks can't run higher.But given…

Inflation has been called the invisible tax.Economist John Maynard Keynes wrote that, through it, "Governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens" in a process that "engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner which not one man in a million…

Back in 1996, Federal Reserve Chair Alan Greenspan famously said:"How do we know when irrational exuberance has unduly escalated asset values, which then become subject to unexpected and prolonged contractions?"It was a prophetic question, as the stock market soon after became caught up in the mania of the DotCom bubble, reaching unprecedented leve…

Well, the average home price in America remains just about as unaffordable as it's ever been.In fact, a recent report from real estate data provider ATTOM examined the median home prices last year for roughly 575 U.S. counties and found that home prices in 99% of those areas are beyond the reach of the average income earner.And to add insult to inj…

The S&P is at yet another record high in a week that saw the second-biggest 1-day gain in market cap in history after Nvidia (NVDA) delighted investors with blowout revenue& earnings growth.The bulls are stampeding hard now and FOMO-driven momentum chasers are back.Stocks remain solidly in short-term overbought territory. Valuation metrics of many …

One of the most frequent requests from Thoughtful Money viewers is for a discussion focused on investing for income. Well, that's what we're delivering here.Steven Bavaria, author of the book 'The Income Factory: An Investor’s Guide to Consistent Lifetime Returns' joins us to share his framework for constructing a lower-risk portfolio of income-gen…

After decades of moving towards increased globalization, the aftermath of the supply-chain vulnerabilities revealed by the COVID pandemic, as well as the geopolitical fallout from Russia's invasion of Ukraine, are pushing the world order into a more fragmented state.If trade globalization has indeed peaked, what does that mean for the future of the…

Inflation for January rose higher than expected. Is this a one-off blip?Or is it a sign that the remaining inflation in the system is "sticky", and going to prove harder for the Federal Reserve to get under control?Some analysis have been warning that we may be falling into the same trap as we did in the 1970s, which saw a series of rollercoaster s…

The S&P 500 is now solidly above 5,000. Stocks have shrugged off "bad" data like higher inflation numbers & disappointing retail sales -- nothing at the moment seems able to dampen Wall Street's euphoria. And little surprise, retail investors are now piling into the markets, eager not to miss the party. These are classic late-stage signs of a toppi…

Narrative drives so much of the thinking today, especially when it comes to the markets.To prevent becoming unduly influenced by it, it's important to ground ourselves in data.We should ask first: what is the data saying?And then we can judge whether the current prevailing narratives are consistent with it.So, what is the current data telling us?To…

The officially-reported headline GDP, jobs and inflation numbers look pretty rosy right now.But how much of that is due to actual, healthy sustainable economic activity vs extraordinary government intervention?Deficit spending as a percentage of GDP is currently at heights not seen outside of major wartimes and government jobs have surged, total fe…

According to the official data - be it economic growth, disinflation or jobs -- things could hardly be better.But if you talk to a regular person on the street, they're likely to tell you that times aren't that great, and getting tougher.Why is the prevailing narrative so disconnected from the reality on the ground?And where are things likely to he…

The S&P finally hit a new all-time high of 5,000 this week. So does this milestone give the market the green light to rocket higher? Or is this the right time to lock in recent gains by starting to sell? Portfolio manager Lance Roberts thinks the latter is more likely, especially as the S&P remains quite overbought here from a technical perspective…

Markets seem pretty convinced that 2024 is experiencing, in the words of US Treasury secretary Janet Yellen, a soft landing.But what if everyone is wrong?And if they are wrong, which assets are cheap right now and what will happen to the market?Steen Jacobsen, Chief Economist and Chief Investment Officer of Saxo Bank, has been pointedly asking thes…

A few days ago, the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee released its latest policy decision, followed by a press conference by Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged, and reiterated that it thinks it's making good progress getting inflation under control while protecting the jobs market.Soon after Powell's conference, in a…

The bears had every opportunity to break the markets over the past few years: From a global pandemic with a broad economic shut down, to a resulting 40 year high in inflation followed by the most aggressive rate cycle in history.But the bears failed. The markets are back at all-time highs.And likely to power a lot higher from here, predicts technic…

The S&P 500 is back to an all-time high and the NASDAQ is a hairs'-breadth away from the same. Stocks have started 2024 strong and appear now to be in a positive-feedback loop, where higher prices entice more buyers, leading to still higher prices. Multiple expansion is underway and stocks are remain quite overbought in the short-term. How much lon…