Geopolitics Decanted is a podcast featuring geopolitical analysis and in-depth expert interviews on topics ranging from War in Ukraine, Great Power Competition with China, changing nature of warfare, sanctions and export controls, semiconductors and cybersecurity. This is a podcast for people who care about the details and are seeking a comprehensive understanding of global issues, not just the sound bytes. It is hosted by Dmitri Alperovitch, Chairman of Silverado Policy Accelerator (www.sil ...
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New Secrets From the Cold War and Lessons for Cold War II With China
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52:13
Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Sergey Radchenko, one of the Cold War's preeminent historians, about the untold secrets of that period based on Sergey's unique access to recently declassified Soviet and Chinese archives. They discussed China's role in causing Khrushchev to initiate the Cuban Missile Crisis, a huge Soviet intelligence failure that cau…
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How the US Planned to Respond to Russia Using a Nuke in Ukraine
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Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Bill Hennigan, a New York Times opinion writer currently publishing a series of articles called "At the Brink," focused on nuclear threats and the challenges our world faces in combating proliferation. They discussed the fears that the US intelligence community had in the fall of 2022 that the probability of Russia usi…
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The Trinity Revolution in Warfare: Precision, Sensors and Comms
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51:52
Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Shashank Joshi, Defense Editor for The Economist, about the changing nature of warfare and the impact of proliferation and affordability of precision munitions, sensor ubiquity and digital communications like Starlink. They discuss the still crucial importance of infantry mass and artillery ammunition in this revolutio…
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Why North Korea is Probably Not Planning a War
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55:33
Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Dr. Jeffrey Lewis, an expert in arms control and nuclear and missile nonproliferation, currently a professor at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey, and director of the CNS East Asia Nonproliferation Program. They discuss whether the near…
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Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Ivan Kanapathy, a former US military attache to Taiwan, about the looming threat of Chinese invasion and why a Chinese blockade or quarantine of Taiwan is unlikely to succeed. They discuss the implications of the recent Taiwan elections on the island's military readiness and the future of US-Taiwan relations, the chall…
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Battle of Wills: Ukraine’s Path to Victory
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Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Yaroslav Trofimov, a Ukrainian-born Wall Street Journal’s chief foreign-affairs correspondent, about his new book "Our Enemies Will Vanish: The Russian Invasion and Ukraine's War of Independence."They discussed why the Russians lost any chance of capturing Kyiv in the first day of the war by failing to take Hostomel ai…
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The Drone Wars: How Consumer Tech Is Shaping the Ukraine War
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Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Michael Kofman (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace), Rob Lee (Foreign Policy Research Institute) and Andrey Liscovich (UkraineDefenseFund.org) how the proliferation of FPV drones and countermeasures to them are changing the nature of warfare in Ukraine. They discuss:- Advantages and disadvantages of these new p…
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All Things AI: An Interview With White House AI Guru Ben Buchanan
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Dmitri Alperovitch comes to the White House to interview Dr. Ben Buchanan, the White House Special Advisor on AI, about:- The risks and benefits of AI- What the US government is trying to achieve with the President's Executive Order on AI- Why Terminator AIs are not coming to kill us but evil people using AI just might- What the requirements to rep…
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Why Chinese Economy Is Heading For Stagnation, Not Collapse
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51:34
Dmitri Alperovitch and guest co-host Patrick Gray interview Alicia García-Herrero, a Spanish-born economist based in the indo-Pacific and who specializes on China. They discussed why China has exhausted its growth potential and is now facing structured deceleration, which will be a major global deflationary trend. Other topics covered: why the real…
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Why Quantum Computing May be Overhyped but AI isn't: Interview with the NSA
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56:02
Dmitri Alperovitch interviews Gilbert Herrera, Director of Research at the National Security Agency (NSA) and a member of the U.S. National Quantum Initiative Advisory Committee. They discussed the current state of quantum computing, why its current applications outside of breaking certain types of public key cryptography are highly limited, why we…
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How Ukraine Can Benefit From ATACMS Missiles
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ATACMS episode: - What variants of the missile exist- What unique advantages they offer over already provided Storm Shadows / SCALP-EGs from UK and France- How many missiles may exist in the US inventory and why some can be provided to Ukraine without jeopardizing US military readiness- Why the German Taurus missile is also a much needed munition f…
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Starlink in Ukraine: Why the Story Is Not So Simple
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Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Patrick Gray, host of Risky Business podcast, about why the Starlink-Elon saga is much more complicated than it might seem at first glance. Blaming Elon for his Crimea action is probably unfair, but he does deserve both praise and criticism for his contributions to Ukrainian battlefield successes and challenges. And so…
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Why 702 is America’s most valuable intelligence program: Interview with the FBI
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52:09
Dmitri Alperovitch sits down with Bryan Vorndran, Assistant Director of FBI's Cyber Division, to discuss why FISA Section 702 is by far the most valuable intelligence program in the US government's arsenal and is responsible for the majority of the most valuable intelligence the country collects. In this episode, Vorndran provides some examples of …
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What the Death of Prigozhin Means for Wagner, Russia and Ukraine
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Dmitri Alperovitch talks to Russian military analyst Rob Lee and Wagner Group expert Jack Margolin about the implications of reports of Prigozhin's fiery death in a plane crash in Russia. Where does Wagner go from here? What happens to Russian ambitions in Africa? Does this event help restore Surovikin, Russia's most competent commander of this war…
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How Russian Intelligence operatives have attacked Ukraine in cyberspace: Interview with Ukrainian Security Service
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In this joint Geopolitics Decanted and Risky Business feature interview, Dmitri Alperovitch and Patrick Gray talk to Illia Vitiuk, the Head of the Department of Cyber and Information Security of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) about the cyber dimension to Russia's invasion.From turning off Ukraine's power grid with a cyber attack in 2015, to …
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Why Reports of the US Dollar’s Death Have Been Greatly Exaggerated
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Dmitri Alperovitch talks with geoeconomist Douglas Rediker (Senior Fellow at Brookings and formerly with the IMF Executive Board) about the enduring dominance of the U.S. dollar and why it won't change any time soon. Why the dollar continues to have no realistic alternatives and why Chinese renminbi is not a viable replacement. Also, what are the p…
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Why Europe’s Dependence on the US Military Will Not Change
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On the train ride to Kyiv, Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Franz Stefan Gady, one of the premier European military analysts, about why American military involvement in Europe is unlikely to be significantly reduced in the coming years and the dangers that a US conflict with China may present to European security. They discuss the slow pace of Europea…
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How Drones Are Changing the Nature of Warfare in Ukraine
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56:28
On the train ride back to Poland from Kyiv, Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Andrey Liscovich (President of Ukraine Defense Fund, a charity that provides non-lethal aid to the Ukrainian military) about how various types of drones are used for artillery correction, target identification and strike missions in Ukraine. They discuss why Chinese drones su…
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Trip Report: What I Learned in Kyiv and Conversation with Mike Kofman and Rob Lee about Counteroffensive and Wagner
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Guest host Patrick Gray interviews Dmitri Alperovitch about his recent trip to Kyiv and what he learned from his meetings with senior military and intelligence leadership there. Dmitri also interviews Mike Kofman and Rob Lee during their train ride to Kyiv about the current state of the Ukrainian counteroffensive and their thinking on the fallout f…
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Mutiny in Russia: Who Won, Who Lost and What Caused It
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48:29
In this edition of Geopolitics Decanted guest host Patrick Gray interviews Dmitri Alperovitch about Evgeny Prigozhin's so-called "March for Justice".What was it all about? Did it fail or succeed? What does Putin's reaction tell us about what will happen next in Russia?Music: Battle Hymn of PMC Wagner (https://rutube.ru/video/3152ef2154f8d3bd9aa0aeb…
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Ukraine’s Offensive Has Begun: Analysis With Michael Kofman and Rob Lee
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Dmitri Alperovitch talks with military analysts Michael Kofman and Rob Lee about this week's launch of Ukraine's counteroffensive: what are its objectives, how can we determine when it's successful, and what is likely to come next. Also covered: Why Kakhovka dam destruction is unlikely to have an impact on the counteroffensive, Prigozhin's trap for…
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How AI Will Transform Future Militaries (And Societies)
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58:00
Dmitri Alperovitch discusses the evolution of AI with Teddy Collins (former Assistant Director for Technology Strategy at the White House, Research Scientist at Google’s DeepMind and co-author of "Teams of Teams" with General Stan McChrystal):- The AI triad of Talent/Algorithms, Data and Compute which has driven so much improvement in the last 5 ye…
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Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Chris Miller, author of the recent New York Times bestseller Chip War: The Fight for the World's Most Critical Technology, about one of the central elements of the US-China confrontation: semiconductors. Topics discussed include:- Which chips are more critical: advanced or foundational (aka mature)- The history of how …
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How Ukraine Can Survive the Exhaustion of Its Air Defense Stocks
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Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Justin Bronk (Senior Research Fellow for Airpower and Technology at RUSI and Professor at Royal Norwegian Air Force Academy) and Dara Massicot (Russian military analyst at RAND) about the dire implications of the dwindling stocks of Ukrainian air defense interceptors and what can be done to solve that problem. Justin m…
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China and Russia: An Alliance, an Alignment or a Marriage of Convenience?
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58:44
Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Alexander Gabuev (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) and Sergey Radchenko (Johns Hopkins SAIS), two of the foremost experts on the true nature of the China-Russia relationship. Topics discussed:- The signs that the Xi-Putin summit in Moscow last month may have achieved more substance than many may realize- How…
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Why Taiwan’s Military Modernization Is Moving Too Slowly
1:03:47
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Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Vincent Chao, a Taiwanese politician and former diplomat and national security strategist, about why Taiwan is moving so slowly to modernize its military and increase deterrence of an existential threat of Chinese invasion. They discuss Taiwan's messy identity politics, whether Taiwanese will fight to defend their free…
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Myth Busting With Michael Kofman: Debunking Common Misperceptions About the Ukraine War
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38:59
Dmitri Alperovitch sits down once again with Michael Kofman, Russian military analyst, who has just returned from visiting the frontline in Bakhmut, to talk about his observations on the fighting there, as well as common misperceptions about Wagner Group, impact of Western training programs on Ukrainian military force composition, the adaptations a…
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How Russia’s Winter Offensive Could Backfire
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48:54
Dmitri Alperovitch sits down with Michael Kofman to discuss the strategic mistakes of Russia's current offensive in the Donbas and the prospects of an upcoming Ukrainian counteroffensive. We also dive into the implications of the remarkable Prigozhin vs Shoigu gangland-style fight ('razborki' in Russian) and how Russian incompetence may have been t…
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Interview: This American Spent 10 Months Fighting in Ukraine
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Dmitri Alperovitch talks to David Bramlette, a former U.S. Ranger and Green Beret combat veteran, who has recently returned from fighting with the Ukrainian Foreign Legion in the Kharkiv, Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. David shares his experiences of the war, why he went over to risk his life for a foreign country, his impressions of the Russian and …
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How Russia is Working Around Western Sanctions and Export Controls
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"Russia Shifting Import Sources Amid U.S. and Allied Export Restrictions" report download link: https://silverado.org/news/report-russia-shifting-import-sources-amid-u-s-and-allied-export-restrictionsBy Andy David, Sarah Stewart, Dmitri Alperovitch
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Why Ukraine May Try to Retake Crimea Next
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Since the start of the Russian invasion last February, it has been a commonly accepted wisdom that Ukraine will not try to retake Crimea - an action that many in the West worry will trigger an escalation - until it has taken back all of the territory lost since February 2022. In this episode, Dmitri Alperovitch once again talks to Sergii Grabskyi, …
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How Dwindling Ammunition Stocks Could Decide the Outcome of the War
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Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Russian military expert Michael Kofman about:- Why this war may be decided by which side can stretch their ammunition supplies the longest- Putin's visit to Belarus and whether a new Russian offensive may be coming soon- 3 areas in which Russian military has been outclassed by Ukrainian forces- How Russian Military Int…
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New Phase of the War: Ukraine Faces Tough Decisions
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Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Michael Kofman- The strategic impact of Russian terror strike campaign against Ukrainian critical infrastructure- Likelihood of a near-term Ukrainian offensive to retake the South- Is Ukraine trying to retake Kinburn Spit to control the Dniepier river?- Would tanks help Ukraine break through the Russian trenches in the…
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No Way Out: Why Negotiations Won’t End the War Soon
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In this episode, Dmitri Alperovitch talks with historian and Russia expert Mark Galeotti about:- Whether Putin is capable of compromising his war aims in any potential future negotiations with Ukraine- Th real reason for why he chose to invade Ukraine- Why he went ahead and annexed territories he didn't even have full control over- The similarities…
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Russia’s Cyber Game: What Worked and What Didn’t
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In this episode, Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Dr. Danny Moore, a scholar of offensive cyber operations and a former cyber operator in the Israeli Defense Forces, about the successes and failures of Russian cyber attacks against Ukraine, the reasons for the lack of Russian cyber retaliation against the West, how the cyber component of warfare might…
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How the Russian Air Force Failed in Ukraine
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Why has Russia been unable to suppress Ukrainian air defenses? What is the true state of its missile stockpiles and production rates? Is the F-16 the best aircraft to provide to Ukraine to replace its old Soviet fighter jets? How can the West disrupt the chips supplies for the Russian military? Dmitri Alperovitch talks to Justin Brock and Dr. Jack …
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Keys Lessons for Taiwan from the War in Ukraine
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46:19
What lessons should Taiwan and its allies draw from the current conflict in Ukraine? Is the tank obsolete? Are commercial drones the future of warfare? Dmitri Alperovitch speaks to Franz-Stefan Gady, a research fellow at IISS and a deep thinker on the future of conflict and war, about his recent trip to Ukraine and the non-obvious lessons for Taiwa…
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Military coup or orderly transition? Nothing lasts forever and in this edition of the podcast, Dmitri Alperovitch speaks to Daniel Treisman, professor of political science at University of California, who specializes on Russian politics and economics, about how Putin's multi-decade reign of Russia might end…
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Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Michael Kofman, who is just back from a trip to Ukraine. They discuss:- The latest on the fight in Kherson and Luhansk- Impact of Russian terror strikes on civilian infrastructure- Ukrainian morale- How Putin's mobilization is progressing- What the Russians are trying to achieve with the dirty bomb scares,- Lkelihood o…
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How America Pulled the Plug on China’s Chips Sector
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47:24
Dmitri Alperovitch and Silverado's Executive Director Sarah Stewart talk to Kevin Wolf, former Assistant Secretary of Commerce for Export Administration, about the latest export control measures announced by the Biden Administration that are now crippling the Chinese semiconductor companies and why this is one of the most important actions the US c…
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What the Kerch Bridge Attack Means for the War
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48:46
In the latest episode, Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Michael Kofman about the Kerch bridge attack, as well as:- Prospect of nuclear weapons use by Putin- Analysis of how Russia's mobilization drive has gone thus far- Kherson and Donbas counteroffensives by Ukrainian forces- Why the Russians continue their pointless attacks in Donetsk oblasts- Ongoi…
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Betting It All on Black: Putin’s Partial Mobilization
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53:35
Twitter Space recording from September 21, 2022 of a conversation between Dmitri Alperovitch , Michael Kofman and Rob Lee on the implications of Putin's partial mobilization order and the impact it may have on the outcome of the war, as well as Putin's own political futuresBy Michael Kofman, Rob Lee, Dmitri Alperovitch
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Like Ants to Wet Sugar: How Ukraine Won The Battle of Kharkiv
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How did the Russian northern front collapse so rapidly and what can be expected now in the fight for Donbas and Kherson? Dmitri Alperovitch discusses the latest Ukraine counteroffensive developments with Sergii Grabskyi, a Reserve Colonel in the Ukrainian military.By Sergii Grabskyi, Dmitri Alperovitch
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Russian northern front collapse: Latest on Ukrainian Counteroffensive
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42:54
Twitter Space recording from September 10, 2022 of a conversation between Dmitri Alperovitch and Michael Kofman on the implications of the rapid collapse of the Russian forces pocket in northern Ukraine and what the future holds for Ukrainian counteroffensives in the north and southBy Dmitri Alperovitch, Michael Kofman
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Was there ever a grain shortage crisis caused by the Russian blockade of Ukrainian exports? Dmitri Alperovitch gets the real story from Dr. Scott Irwin, Professor of Agricultural and Consumer Economics at University of Illinois and an international leader in the field of agricultural economics. Dr. Irwin discusses the true state of grain markets an…
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Ukraine's cheap drones wreak havoc in Crimea
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Dmitri Alperovitch discusses the impact of Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian military facilities and logistics in Crimea with Michael Kofman (Research Program Director in the Russia Studies Program at the Center for Naval Analysis). And Dmitri's theory on the Russian masterplan for Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant Topics covered: $10,000 Chinese U…
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Slicing the Sausage: Ukraine’s Upcoming Counteroffensive
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In this podcast Dmitri Alperovitch interviews Sergii Grabskyi, a Reserve Colonel in the Ukrainian military, about Ukraine’s upcoming counteroffensive. Michael Kofman, Research Program Director in the Russia Studies Program at the Center for Naval Analysis, also joins the show to share his latest analysis of what’s happening on the ground in Ukraine…
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How Russia Engineered the Perfect Gas Crisis
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Dmitri Alperovitch talks with energy markets and russian oil and gas sector expert Sergey Vakulenko (formerly with Gazprom Neft, Royal Dutch Shell and IHS Markit) about how Russia is engineering an energy crisis in Europe, with spillover effects all over the world. Topics covered: When it comes to gas, who needs whom more: Russia or Europe? What ar…
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Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Retired UK Air Marshall Greg Bagwell, former Deputy Commander of Operations at RAF Air Command, about how the West can provide Ukraine with modern aircraft platforms such as F-16s. Topics covered: Why F-16 is one of the best planes to provide to Ukraine today How to transport planes into Ukraine without triggering Russ…
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Ukraine’s HIMARS edge may not last: Analysis of the war in Ukraine (July 10, 2022)
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July 10, 2022: Dmitri Alperovitch talks with Michael Kofman (Research Program Director in the Russia Studies Program at the Center for Naval Analysis) about the new developments in the war in Ukraine on Twitter Spaces. Topics covered: HIMARS: Are they making a strategic difference or will Russia find a way to blunt their effects? Can ATACMS 300km r…
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