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The Places We Could Go

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Manage episode 361649429 series 2164374
Content provided by Michael Cembalest. All podcast content including episodes, graphics, and podcast descriptions are uploaded and provided directly by Michael Cembalest or their podcast platform partner. If you believe someone is using your copyrighted work without your permission, you can follow the process outlined here https://player.fm/legal.

Before getting into the US$ discussion, three quick things. First, despite strong US data in Q1 and Q2, the US still appears headed for a slowdown later this year. As shown below, many longer-horizon leading indicators point in that direction. Excess household savings are also being run down and should be 60%-70% depleted by the end of the year. Stable copper prices are one exception but its usefulness as a business cycle indicator is affected by China’s reopening and the copper intensity of the energy transition. Click here for a chart collection on these leading indicators.

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110 episodes

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The Places We Could Go

Eye On The Market

49 subscribers

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Manage episode 361649429 series 2164374
Content provided by Michael Cembalest. All podcast content including episodes, graphics, and podcast descriptions are uploaded and provided directly by Michael Cembalest or their podcast platform partner. If you believe someone is using your copyrighted work without your permission, you can follow the process outlined here https://player.fm/legal.

Before getting into the US$ discussion, three quick things. First, despite strong US data in Q1 and Q2, the US still appears headed for a slowdown later this year. As shown below, many longer-horizon leading indicators point in that direction. Excess household savings are also being run down and should be 60%-70% depleted by the end of the year. Stable copper prices are one exception but its usefulness as a business cycle indicator is affected by China’s reopening and the copper intensity of the energy transition. Click here for a chart collection on these leading indicators.

  continue reading

110 episodes

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