Episode 65: The Current State of US Airlines

Milenomics ² Podcast - No Annual Fee Edition

We Assess the Current State of the Six Largest US Airlines...on today’s Milenomics² (No Annual Fee Edition) Podcast

0:24 Premise of the Discussion

• Everyone’s situation is different. Different hometown airport(s), different common destinations, different enthusiasm for taking on points & miles complexity to defray airfare costs, etc.
• That being the case, there’s are no one-size-fits-all solutions in this game
• That said, there are tendencies and trends that are worth being familiar with as it’s useful in informing moves you might make to prepare for future travel
• In this spirit, we think it’s a good time to take a look at the biggest domestic carriers. We’ll analyze them both for using their miles to fly their metal, the overall state of their frequent flyer program, their co-branded credit cards, their bank point relationships, how difficult they are to earn, and their overall position in the market.

04:21 American

• Could be the last remaining legacy carrier where close-in you can still find saver level awards for expensive cash fares, will have to see how this plays out with a supposed move to “fully dynamic”
• British Airways Avios (and other OneWorld partner awards) can still be a good play, but AA doesn’t seem to release much partner award space
• A good program to generate miles in, but if their utility becomes mostly for partner awards it significantly diminishes the value proposition for me
• With no bank point transfer partners, it can be tough to generate AA miles.
• Bilt transfers are possible.
• Unique in that they partner with both Citi and Barclays, though churnability has become difficult
• Bottom Line: Still a lot of great partners, favorable partner award charts, and flexible change and cancellation terms. The value proposition with AA increasingly hinges on partner awards.

14:15 Delta

• Booking with Delta miles provides decent everyday value with flexible cancellation terms. Not a lot of clever angles here when cash prices are high.
  • Issues with cancellations not actually happening. Need to follow up.
• Wide variety of co-branded Amex cards with probably the best churnability of any carrier due to targeted offers and lenient approval standards
• 15% discount on award travel if holding one of their Amex Delta cards.
• 1:1 transfer partner from Membership Rewards which have been one of the easier bank point currencies to generate the past 5 years
• Booking with 35% Amex Business Platinum rebate even more valuable than transferring (but beware Amex Travel hassles and harder to cancel)
• SkyClub membership for everyone who carries an Amex Platinum card is a nice perk when flying, though because of this they can be crowded
• Bottom Line: Weak SkyTeam alliance and expensive international awards make Delta a straightforward value proposition for domestic flights.

23:54 Southwest

• A wide variety of fun (if complicated) instruments for booking flights.
  • Fun? I think that when things are going well they can be more 'fun' than other airlines to fly with.
• “Too good to be true” Companion Pass is perhaps the longest running and evidently effective campaigns in the space.
• In general, connections with Southwest stress their system and make for longer travel than necessary with other carriers
• Not low cost. Low fee.
• Antique seating policy makes for trouble for families with children older than their cutoff of 6.