Market Bounce Back -- Nick Santiago 8-30-23 #520

Daily Market Wisdom with Nick Santiago

1. The major stock indexes are bouncing today continuing the move from late last Friday. This is the final trading week in August and the last week ahead of the Labor Day holiday. There's a chance that we see continued light volume and a gradual float higher into the end of the week. Most often holiday action will favor the upside, but we must not take that for granted. The month of August has been weak and that should continue into September.
2. Economic data has been a bit soft this week and that has helped the rally. Bad news is now good news again. Yesterday, the weak JOLTS report gave the market a jolt to the upside.
Today, the second estimate for Q2 GDP growth was marked down to 2.1% from the advance estimate of 2.4%. The GDP Price Deflator also got marked down to 2.0% from the advance estimate of 2.2%. The PCE Price Index got revised lower to 2.5% from 2.6%, as did the core-PCE Price Index, which checked in at 3.7% versus the advance estimate of 3.8%.
The bottom line, bad news is good news as investors hope the Fed will cut rates.
3. Yields have backed off this week and that has helped the markets to rally up. The 2-year note yield was above 5% late last week and it is now back down to 4.85%. Remember, if the 2 year note yield starts to climb back up to 5% it will likely spook markets once again.
4. Gold and silver are upticking a little today. Gold is popping up after forming a 4-day consolidating base on the daily chart. This pattern could lead to some more daily chart upside in the near term, but there is some daily resistance around the 1975 level.
5. Bitcoin surged yesterday after a positive court ruling for a Grayscale Bitcoin ETF. So while this was a solid surge there was a bullish chart pattern failure last week. So I would be very careful with Bitcoin futures right now.
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