The Market Flipped on a Sixpence | S6 E27

World of Oil Derivatives

Brent is back in the $80’s this week after a huge rebound and initial sell-off post-OPEC meeting. Crude flat prices are back to where we were pre-OPEC meeting, as the August contract fell to lows of $77/bbl before climbing all the way back up to $82/bbl this morning.

The M1 refinery margins in Europe continue to weaken this week by nearly $0.35/bbl; however, the same in Asia climbed by $0.55/bbl this week. Asian margins appear to be picking up compared to how low they were at the end of May. The market still looks less confident about gasoline, though.

The summer demand looks like it's manifesting in jet fuel in Asia, due to strong aviation demand - which is soaring as travel returns back to pre-Covid levels.

Looking to the macro market, James and Greg discuss why unemployment has ticked up 4.4%. As demand is falling, people aren't spending as much, and lower-income households are hurting. Full-time work is declining, and people with multiple part time jobs are on the rise. This isn't a great sign for the economy.

The trade idea for this week is long US propane.

If you would like to connect with any of our hosts on LinkedIn, please click on the hyperlinks below:
Greg Newman: https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/
James Brodie: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jamesbrodiecmt/
Vincent Wu: https://www.linkedin.com/in/vincent-wu-099816125/
Mita Chaturvedi: https://www.linkedin.com/in/mita-chaturvedi/
Chapters for this episode are:
0:00 Welcome
1:25 Brent Futures
6:44 Refinery margins
14:39 Macro market news
23:42 "Googling oil:" world oil news
31:52 Trade idea of the week
37:58 Poll results and outro